The following chart and idea is presenting the 2017 November / December fractal.
There are three main parts of the fractal that are in progress or have already taken place.
1) Uptrend break dump after massive price increase
2) Failure to retake broken uptrend
3) Following lower high which signaled the end of the bull market and start of the bear market.
1) The run up in 2017 had it's final major push with little pull back in November with a break out around 7.7K, going to 20K, albeit with more dips and volatility.
After ~20K was reached for the second time, a massive sell off ensured that caused a violent break of the 7.7K -> 20K uptrend. The sell off resulted in a sizable bounce and retaking of the uptrend, however it did not last and BTC soon fell under that uptrend again while rising back in price.
In our current run, we have an extremely similar situation having already played out. A similar run from 7.5K to 13.8K was followed by a sell off, bounce, and then break of the uptrend with sizable volume.
The bounce recovered the uptrend, but ultimately failed to retake it and has been trading under it ever since.
2) In 2017, BTC painted a lower high with it's bounce to 17K, failing to retake it's 20K ATH and quickly started selling off with that failure.
Currently, a similar picture has been painted with the daily close under 13K, and the wick of the candle similarly showing a lower high.
After the lower high was formed on the daily, an increase in volume was seen via a large sell off.
3) In both current cases, the uptrend acted as resistance and was the top of the lower high. A similar uptrend was around 17K in 2017, and right now the uptrend acted as resistance at 13K.
While these are the core pillars of the fractal, the actual pattern and shape is shockingly similar once you scale it down to size.
An invalidation of this fractal would obviously be in the form of a retaking of the uptrend and painting a higher high. Until then, I'm watching from the sidelines and seeing how this pattern plays out and if it continues on a massive sell off back to ~8K
There are three main parts of the fractal that are in progress or have already taken place.
1) Uptrend break dump after massive price increase
2) Failure to retake broken uptrend
3) Following lower high which signaled the end of the bull market and start of the bear market.
1) The run up in 2017 had it's final major push with little pull back in November with a break out around 7.7K, going to 20K, albeit with more dips and volatility.
After ~20K was reached for the second time, a massive sell off ensured that caused a violent break of the 7.7K -> 20K uptrend. The sell off resulted in a sizable bounce and retaking of the uptrend, however it did not last and BTC soon fell under that uptrend again while rising back in price.
In our current run, we have an extremely similar situation having already played out. A similar run from 7.5K to 13.8K was followed by a sell off, bounce, and then break of the uptrend with sizable volume.
The bounce recovered the uptrend, but ultimately failed to retake it and has been trading under it ever since.
2) In 2017, BTC painted a lower high with it's bounce to 17K, failing to retake it's 20K ATH and quickly started selling off with that failure.
Currently, a similar picture has been painted with the daily close under 13K, and the wick of the candle similarly showing a lower high.
After the lower high was formed on the daily, an increase in volume was seen via a large sell off.
3) In both current cases, the uptrend acted as resistance and was the top of the lower high. A similar uptrend was around 17K in 2017, and right now the uptrend acted as resistance at 13K.
While these are the core pillars of the fractal, the actual pattern and shape is shockingly similar once you scale it down to size.
An invalidation of this fractal would obviously be in the form of a retaking of the uptrend and painting a higher high. Until then, I'm watching from the sidelines and seeing how this pattern plays out and if it continues on a massive sell off back to ~8K
Comment:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HHkJH_0...
Comment:
Well, it's working out in the worst possible way.
