I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business.
For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634
Previous analysis: “I strongly expect that we will see some volatility over the next 24 - 48 hours. Support below $3,200 has been holding strong and so has the resistance from the trendline which is currently at $3,215.”
Position: Short ADAZ18 from 940 sats (profit taken on 75%, rest has b/e stop) | Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 (starting to scale out) | Short USDT:USD from $0.99
Patterns: Broken trendline | Hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,428 should turn into support | R: $3,594
BTCUSDSHORTS: Lower high, looks like the squeeze has begun and that it could have a long way to go.
Funding Rates: longs receive 0.0148%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Making bullish crossover with the 9
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Has started to turn up
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Coming in hot at $3,934
Overall trend: Short term = bullish | Long term = bearish
Volume: Impressive volume all around (multiple exchanges and alts)
Candlestick analysis: Bullishly engulfed last 6 cands. Last time we saw this (more gain, more volume) it quickly got rejected
Ichimoku Cloud: Kijun-sen = $3,775
TD’ Sequential: G2 above g1 at $3,586 (I wouldn't touch it)
Visible Range: I’m seeing a gap in volume from $3,400 - $3,700 that is begging to get filled.
Price action: 24h: +10.23% (I would never long BTC if it is + 10% in < 24 hours. That is the main reason I check this) | 2w: -21.6% | 1m: -42.4%
Bollinger Bands: MA = $3,582, has been tested since we broke $6,000
Trendline: Thought it was busted until I saw the chart below. Will wait to say that it has been broken.
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): bullish
Parabolic SAR: $3,792
RSI: Broke through resistance, retesting 50 is to be expected
Stochastic: Yesterday’s buy signal sure worked, but that’s like one out of four in the last month
Last Day Rule: Setup day today, stop would be right above today’s high.
Summary: After a daily candle like that and a ~50% drop in 5 weeks it could be easy to think that this is a good spot to go long. However I would stay very far away from longing this area for one simple reason: it is resistance. The most important resistance is coming horizontally and from the Bollinger Band MA.
Furthermore there is even stronger resistance above from the: 33 MA, parabolic SAR, Kijun-Sen and horizontally. Whether you are trading, or investing it is strongly preferable to wait for a less risky entry, even if that means that you end up getting a worse price.
If the daily candles can close above the 33 MA, flatten it out, and then get a golden cross with the 9 I am sure that I will find myself in a long position. However that would take 1 - 2 weeks and would be a lot to ask. In my opinion something in the range of 33%.
Due to the angle of the 33 MA, as well as the confluence of resistance by it’s side, I will be looking to re open shorts in that ballpark. An MA that is trending down is very likely to act as resistance. One that is angled up is very likely to act as support. One that is flat is neutral.
After finishing this I noticed this potential trendline that interested me. Something to keep an eye on in the next 24 hours.
For a variety of reasons I no longer believe that $2,718 will be the bottom of the 2018 Bitcoin’ bear market. I am now very confident that we will return to $1,000 before finding a bottom. That is due to Tyler Jenks’ hyperwave theory and the Point of Control on the Visible Range Volume Profile with > 2 year look back | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018, however I do not believe that will be the bottom. Strongly expect ETH to return to single digits before the end of 2019 | Calling a top in the S&P 500 at $2,634
Previous analysis: “I strongly expect that we will see some volatility over the next 24 - 48 hours. Support below $3,200 has been holding strong and so has the resistance from the trendline which is currently at $3,215.”
Position: Short ADAZ18 from 940 sats (profit taken on 75%, rest has b/e stop) | Short ETH:BTC 0.03109 (starting to scale out) | Short USDT:USD from $0.99
Patterns: Broken trendline | Hyperwave
Horizontal support and resistance: S: $3,428 should turn into support | R: $3,594
BTCUSDSHORTS: Lower high, looks like the squeeze has begun and that it could have a long way to go.
Funding Rates: longs receive 0.0148%
Short term trend (4 day MA): Making bullish crossover with the 9
Medium term trend (9 day MA): Has started to turn up
Long term trend ( 33 day MA): Coming in hot at $3,934
Overall trend: Short term = bullish | Long term = bearish
Volume: Impressive volume all around (multiple exchanges and alts)
Candlestick analysis: Bullishly engulfed last 6 cands. Last time we saw this (more gain, more volume) it quickly got rejected
Ichimoku Cloud: Kijun-sen = $3,775
TD’ Sequential: G2 above g1 at $3,586 (I wouldn't touch it)
Visible Range: I’m seeing a gap in volume from $3,400 - $3,700 that is begging to get filled.
Price action: 24h: +10.23% (I would never long BTC if it is + 10% in < 24 hours. That is the main reason I check this) | 2w: -21.6% | 1m: -42.4%
Bollinger Bands: MA = $3,582, has been tested since we broke $6,000
Trendline: Thought it was busted until I saw the chart below. Will wait to say that it has been broken.
Daily Trend (Using 1h 33 MA to identify daily trend): bullish
Parabolic SAR: $3,792
RSI: Broke through resistance, retesting 50 is to be expected
Stochastic: Yesterday’s buy signal sure worked, but that’s like one out of four in the last month
Last Day Rule: Setup day today, stop would be right above today’s high.
Summary: After a daily candle like that and a ~50% drop in 5 weeks it could be easy to think that this is a good spot to go long. However I would stay very far away from longing this area for one simple reason: it is resistance. The most important resistance is coming horizontally and from the Bollinger Band MA.
Furthermore there is even stronger resistance above from the: 33 MA, parabolic SAR, Kijun-Sen and horizontally. Whether you are trading, or investing it is strongly preferable to wait for a less risky entry, even if that means that you end up getting a worse price.
If the daily candles can close above the 33 MA, flatten it out, and then get a golden cross with the 9 I am sure that I will find myself in a long position. However that would take 1 - 2 weeks and would be a lot to ask. In my opinion something in the range of 33%.
Due to the angle of the 33 MA, as well as the confluence of resistance by it’s side, I will be looking to re open shorts in that ballpark. An MA that is trending down is very likely to act as resistance. One that is angled up is very likely to act as support. One that is flat is neutral.
After finishing this I noticed this potential trendline that interested me. Something to keep an eye on in the next 24 hours.
emasar Indicator is available for purchase at alphanalysis.io/product/emasar/