cblewis_78

The correction is over, the correction is over! Ugh, Not so fast

cblewis_78 Updated   
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Greetings Earthlings...

Everyone is so excited about this recent bounce and thinks BTC is headed to the moon!!! Ummm be careful who you take advice from (including me). There is both a Science and an Art to this trading thing but mostly Science. However, the Art comes in by using previous knowledge/events in history to forecast future outcomes often referred to as lagging indicators. Lets look at one here:

Let's reach way down in our bag and see what we can pull out. Awww, look what we have here: The Nov 30, 2013 retracement. On this day BTC hit its all time high since BTC hit the marketplace (very similar to Dec 17, 2017). Lets look what happened next to the Nov 2013 retrace (1-5) and compare to the Dec 2017 retracement (A-E).

1) BTC had a 76% retracement that creating a very lengthy bear flag.
A) BTC had a 70% retracement creating a very lengthy bear flag.

2) This bear flag, "if" it had corrected to its full potential on the follow-on breakout would have corrected to the full 87%.
B) This bear flag, "if" it had corrected to its full potential on the follow-on breakout would have corrected to the full 75%.

3) The follow-on breakout was interrupted by an A-B-C correction in the Elliott Wave Sequence
C) The follow-on breakout has "potentially" been interrupted by an A-B-C correction in the Elliott Wave Sequence

4) After the A-B-C correction, the price action corrected to its full potential of the preceding bear flag - 87%
D) If an ABC correction ensues, will the A-B-C correction be followed by the full potential of the existing bear flag? (History usually repeats itself)

5) After nailing the bear flag to its full retracement potential, only then did the price action proceed to new all time high
E) Therefore, odds are that today's BTC price will A-B-C correct and then follow on to new All time highs

Happy Trading

#FinstonesGazoo
Comment:
The chart is of the 2013-14 correction. Remarkably similar structure and pattern to current day retracement. The orange arrow indicated the likely placement of where we are in today's retracement. Honestly don't think its over yet. A-B-C correction appears that it will complete near the 8.7K fibonacci
Comment:
Correction: 12.5K Fibonacci A-B-C finishes. Then 5 waves down to 5K.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.