BITCOIN - VERY Important Fib and VERY Important MA!!!
Clickbait title ftw 😸.
I'll continue the short term TA from the previous thread here as it was getting a bit long.
RIght...!
There is a felling of belief and even hope in the markets I think, and that is dangerous!
Suddenly there are many "TA"s talking up consolidations, and pushing on to 30K etc, and its also the same with stocks and indexes and i'll link my work on S&P and Nasdaq.
But anyhow BTC - are we on for 100K tomorrow morning or even 30K next week or this month 🤔?
Well you guessed it (or what i'm going to write) - probably not.
In fact I think a wipe out collapse is coming.
And lets leave TA to the side for a second (wut 🤨)
Lets think about psychology and the market moving game for a second.
Does the market want to usher in the free lunch community for an easy ride and help them get in at a great moment to so they can make a fortune and tell their friends and family what geniuses they are???
And all across the world hodl club get the text from their favourite crypto app telling them "the bull market is on - its time to buy" - "wake up little hodler."
Is that how this works, these apps and exchanges really are robin hood that take from the rich and give to the poor (too funny an exchange is called Robin Hood)
Robin Hood is here to tell you its time to get rich 💡 ???
And obviously I wont condescend - the answer is no.
The game is rigged, you're always being played if you are not aware of the game - and thats not just trading, that is everything. But that type of conversation is beyond the scope of this Bitcoin thread so back to the chart.
...
Ok so BTC has been very corrective - very choppy price action and this is unstable and I think we've potentially reached the top of Wyckoff "AR - Automatic Rally" following the "SC - Selling Climax" low.
And if correct what this means is this could be a fairly long accumulation.
Last week's candle was a doji (indecision) hugging the 200MA and this week's candle (although not complete till the weekend is done) is currently a tiny wee little doji - again hugging the 200MA.
And you may think that hugging a moving average is a good thing but I would suggest that its a very bad thing. A good thing would be price bouncing at an MA and wicking through. When price hugs and MA it is a corrective path where upside impetus is slowly exhausted until it falls through.
And thats what is about to happen I think.
And I'm going to have a throw at the dartboard and say it will be next week, if not it will be the next.
Now...
There's a very important and somewhat hard to find fib and now having had some time to look through all the options - I think this out of all the possible fibs is the most important one.
Slightly hard to find only because the last pivot is a higher high.
Ok...
So, next event in Wyckoff accumulation is "ST - Secondary Test."
If I was creating the names of Wyckoff events I might call this "FT1 - First Fear Test." Because that is what it is.
In terms of psychology AR breathes hope into the free lunch community and mostly towards the top is where most of the herd will start buying.
I'm being cheeky with the terms but this is nothing more than emotional psychology and the market movers are well aware that the herd trade on emotion and without skill - and so they are effectively herding the free lunch community; fooling them at every turn.
And thats why many hodler gurus advocate for DCA and to an extent they are right because the hodler can buy AR and if they are disciplined buy throughout the fear testing with DCA and really they are doing great. The trouble is by the time BTC bottoms they may be in so much pain and that may affect their judgement.
Digressing a bit...
Are you still here 😆?
Ok good 👍🏻.
So anyhow hope is high currently and there will be a lot of buying. A wise guy on my previous thread apparently thinks that only a nuclear event or a war in Taiwan will see BTC go below 21K and that is the calibre of player in the crypto market.
And if you're reading this you should be very thankful for this type of player; so willing to talk balls, carry the bags and entirely unwilling to lift a finger even if the required TA to learn is only a few mouse clicks away 😄.
As long as there are plenty of hodlers like this and there are plenty then the game remains unchanged. The market movers are happy that they have a bountiful feast at every turn, and for the manual trader thats put the time in, the game isn't actually too difficult. If these loud mouth billy-big-boot types actually wised up then that would be bad news because the market movers would need to make the game more difficult, but thankfully there is no sign of that.
Is this a microcosm of society 🤨? Perhaps... (Yes it is.)
Still here??? We're nearly done...
...
Ok, so next step is the first fear test (ST) and I think that if this fib is the most relevant then BTC will re-test it before this accumulation is done.
And thats slightly below the orange band that is a typical retracement zone.
In terms of buying I will be doing so as soon as BTC hts the orange band but I will buying down to the fib @ $18485.
TLDR: BTC next low may be as far down as $18485.
NOT SHORTING
Not advice.
I'll continue the short term TA from the previous thread here as it was getting a bit long.
RIght...!
There is a felling of belief and even hope in the markets I think, and that is dangerous!
Suddenly there are many "TA"s talking up consolidations, and pushing on to 30K etc, and its also the same with stocks and indexes and i'll link my work on S&P and Nasdaq.
But anyhow BTC - are we on for 100K tomorrow morning or even 30K next week or this month 🤔?
Well you guessed it (or what i'm going to write) - probably not.
In fact I think a wipe out collapse is coming.
And lets leave TA to the side for a second (wut 🤨)
Lets think about psychology and the market moving game for a second.
Does the market want to usher in the free lunch community for an easy ride and help them get in at a great moment to so they can make a fortune and tell their friends and family what geniuses they are???
And all across the world hodl club get the text from their favourite crypto app telling them "the bull market is on - its time to buy" - "wake up little hodler."
Is that how this works, these apps and exchanges really are robin hood that take from the rich and give to the poor (too funny an exchange is called Robin Hood)
Robin Hood is here to tell you its time to get rich 💡 ???
And obviously I wont condescend - the answer is no.
The game is rigged, you're always being played if you are not aware of the game - and thats not just trading, that is everything. But that type of conversation is beyond the scope of this Bitcoin thread so back to the chart.
...
Ok so BTC has been very corrective - very choppy price action and this is unstable and I think we've potentially reached the top of Wyckoff "AR - Automatic Rally" following the "SC - Selling Climax" low.
And if correct what this means is this could be a fairly long accumulation.
Last week's candle was a doji (indecision) hugging the 200MA and this week's candle (although not complete till the weekend is done) is currently a tiny wee little doji - again hugging the 200MA.
And you may think that hugging a moving average is a good thing but I would suggest that its a very bad thing. A good thing would be price bouncing at an MA and wicking through. When price hugs and MA it is a corrective path where upside impetus is slowly exhausted until it falls through.
And thats what is about to happen I think.
And I'm going to have a throw at the dartboard and say it will be next week, if not it will be the next.
Now...
There's a very important and somewhat hard to find fib and now having had some time to look through all the options - I think this out of all the possible fibs is the most important one.
Slightly hard to find only because the last pivot is a higher high.
Ok...
So, next event in Wyckoff accumulation is "ST - Secondary Test."
If I was creating the names of Wyckoff events I might call this "FT1 - First Fear Test." Because that is what it is.
In terms of psychology AR breathes hope into the free lunch community and mostly towards the top is where most of the herd will start buying.
I'm being cheeky with the terms but this is nothing more than emotional psychology and the market movers are well aware that the herd trade on emotion and without skill - and so they are effectively herding the free lunch community; fooling them at every turn.
And thats why many hodler gurus advocate for DCA and to an extent they are right because the hodler can buy AR and if they are disciplined buy throughout the fear testing with DCA and really they are doing great. The trouble is by the time BTC bottoms they may be in so much pain and that may affect their judgement.
Digressing a bit...
Are you still here 😆?
Ok good 👍🏻.
So anyhow hope is high currently and there will be a lot of buying. A wise guy on my previous thread apparently thinks that only a nuclear event or a war in Taiwan will see BTC go below 21K and that is the calibre of player in the crypto market.
And if you're reading this you should be very thankful for this type of player; so willing to talk balls, carry the bags and entirely unwilling to lift a finger even if the required TA to learn is only a few mouse clicks away 😄.
As long as there are plenty of hodlers like this and there are plenty then the game remains unchanged. The market movers are happy that they have a bountiful feast at every turn, and for the manual trader thats put the time in, the game isn't actually too difficult. If these loud mouth billy-big-boot types actually wised up then that would be bad news because the market movers would need to make the game more difficult, but thankfully there is no sign of that.
Is this a microcosm of society 🤨? Perhaps... (Yes it is.)
Still here??? We're nearly done...
...
Ok, so next step is the first fear test (ST) and I think that if this fib is the most relevant then BTC will re-test it before this accumulation is done.
And thats slightly below the orange band that is a typical retracement zone.
In terms of buying I will be doing so as soon as BTC hts the orange band but I will buying down to the fib @ $18485.
TLDR: BTC next low may be as far down as $18485.
NOT SHORTING
Not advice.
Comment:
I'm doing this for free currently so if you like it or even if you dont like it - LIKES and COMMENTS will bring it to the attention of more TV'ers 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻
Comment:
I'll answer @maverick1239, 's question here who asks if i'm holding my alts and thanks for the question - its a good one.
So I have decided that I will not swing any of my alts from herein. I'll hold all of them through whatever happens from here. No stop, no nothing.
And if/when the orange band is hit i'll buy more from there and down to the 18.5K fib.
So I have decided that I will not swing any of my alts from herein. I'll hold all of them through whatever happens from here. No stop, no nothing.
And if/when the orange band is hit i'll buy more from there and down to the 18.5K fib.
Comment:
Ok so continuing from the previous thread...
Its patterns within patterns and BTC has been in an ascending channel since the low.
Recently it has drifted into a contracting pattern that appears quite heavy, pushing down on the lower trendline.
What I think is happening is BTC is effectively just waiting for the cue from indexes to fall and it may dribble down a bit today but perhaps the real downside will come when indexes resume.
Or perhaps BTC is doing its own thing but it looks extremely corrective to the upside and it would appear a fall is due anytime soon.
Its patterns within patterns and BTC has been in an ascending channel since the low.
Recently it has drifted into a contracting pattern that appears quite heavy, pushing down on the lower trendline.
What I think is happening is BTC is effectively just waiting for the cue from indexes to fall and it may dribble down a bit today but perhaps the real downside will come when indexes resume.
Or perhaps BTC is doing its own thing but it looks extremely corrective to the upside and it would appear a fall is due anytime soon.
Comment:
Comment:
Probing above the ascending channel once again and this could be yet another SRP back through the trendline which could be a right shoulder of an H&S, or perhaps BTC will push up to tag May resistance at $25.3K. If it does that I think I will be tempted to sell my BITO short puts if it prints an SRP.
Comment:
Of and now brokers are tweeting that crypto stocks are pumping on BTC progress, so expect a rug pull so and I think its coming with indexes looking like they are in latter distribution phase.
If ever your broker sends a message to tell you how well a name you hold is doing - GTFO.
Just my opinion - not advice.
If ever your broker sends a message to tell you how well a name you hold is doing - GTFO.
Just my opinion - not advice.
Comment:
All these little jabs upward are great for alts btw and 100% why i'm not fiddling taking profit with them, i just let them fly.
KDA COMP and XPR making good progress recently.
And MARA and RIOT perhaps i'll regret exiting, but a little different strategy there, they both have enormous gaps below that do tend to get filled. I still think i'll buy back in lower. We'll see - MARA earnings today.
KDA COMP and XPR making good progress recently.
And MARA and RIOT perhaps i'll regret exiting, but a little different strategy there, they both have enormous gaps below that do tend to get filled. I still think i'll buy back in lower. We'll see - MARA earnings today.
Comment:
Day closed and its yet another SRP "shakeout reversal pattern."
And as a reminder and for those not familiar with my charting, an SRP is a wicked reversal through a landmark where the candle closes back across leaving only the wick. In this case its a wick through the ascending trendline.
This continues the pattern so far;- BTC cannot hold for any significant length of time above the upper ascending trendline of the channel. And the reason is not too difficult to gauge. Its simply a corrective move and so price is mostly restricted although there can be a short flurry, but ultimately this must fail to the downside.
And failure doesn't necessarily mean that another capitulation down and down below the low is coming since there are many permutations and there may be corrective "pattern separation" for some gentle rise then fall, or there maybe another fear test to really probe the low before rebounding up again
With that in mind; when you look at the naked chart its very clear why most will think this is just a climb upward - higher lows and higher highs.
And i'm not saying BTC can't have a short term pump higher, but ultimately if we're going by the book rather than what our emotions would tell us without the book, then this pattern will sooner or later fail through the lower ascending trendline.
Also the book is important because if it doesn't do what I say i'm going to blame the book. It won't be my fault 😸.
And as a reminder and for those not familiar with my charting, an SRP is a wicked reversal through a landmark where the candle closes back across leaving only the wick. In this case its a wick through the ascending trendline.
This continues the pattern so far;- BTC cannot hold for any significant length of time above the upper ascending trendline of the channel. And the reason is not too difficult to gauge. Its simply a corrective move and so price is mostly restricted although there can be a short flurry, but ultimately this must fail to the downside.
And failure doesn't necessarily mean that another capitulation down and down below the low is coming since there are many permutations and there may be corrective "pattern separation" for some gentle rise then fall, or there maybe another fear test to really probe the low before rebounding up again
With that in mind; when you look at the naked chart its very clear why most will think this is just a climb upward - higher lows and higher highs.
And i'm not saying BTC can't have a short term pump higher, but ultimately if we're going by the book rather than what our emotions would tell us without the book, then this pattern will sooner or later fail through the lower ascending trendline.
Also the book is important because if it doesn't do what I say i'm going to blame the book. It won't be my fault 😸.
Comment:
S&P pre market already down and once it crosses the next trendline support will be lost and will probably be making its way down. It could hold and drift first also, but more upward impulsive will be much less likely.
This will affect BTC.
This will affect BTC.
Comment:
Hodlers buying the "dip" here I feel.
But what type of "dip" will it be? 🤔
But what type of "dip" will it be? 🤔
Comment:
Most of these alts are going to get cut in half from the lows btw but (as I said before) due to them being in a 24 hour market and quite fast and fiddly I'm not selling, i'll just swing hodl (hodling where someday i will actually sell).
I have good entries I think and there is something in trading called "opportunity cost" and also looking at other markets the cost is too high to be bothered chasing wild alt charts around. I'll just come back at christmas and see if there is a nice gift from the markets.
But if i was only trading crypto and was watching it constantly I would probably exit some alt positions in this area. However a relaxing day is more important than maxing alt gains. Its whatever works for you. My strategy prioritises being able to go and sit in the sun with a book and not be thinking about my positions.
I have good entries I think and there is something in trading called "opportunity cost" and also looking at other markets the cost is too high to be bothered chasing wild alt charts around. I'll just come back at christmas and see if there is a nice gift from the markets.
But if i was only trading crypto and was watching it constantly I would probably exit some alt positions in this area. However a relaxing day is more important than maxing alt gains. Its whatever works for you. My strategy prioritises being able to go and sit in the sun with a book and not be thinking about my positions.
Comment:
Chaos in ALL markets today - going wild and so is crypto. And now everyone and their mum and their dog thinks BTC is consolidating to move higher.
Anyhow back to the same old chart you're probably getting bored of seeing. It will change someday.
Here it is:
There is a lot of reversal activity at each trendline and now the upper TL is being tested yet again.
So much excitement now but just remember I never changed my stance. It may pump a little it may have a big pump, but its going to fall below that lower trendline at some point and my guess is no significant pump out of the ascending channel, but its just a guess i might be wrong.
Nonetheless i hold my alts, but i'll be waiting to buy back in my crypto stocks lower as per the threads on my list.
Anyhow back to the same old chart you're probably getting bored of seeing. It will change someday.
Here it is:
There is a lot of reversal activity at each trendline and now the upper TL is being tested yet again.
So much excitement now but just remember I never changed my stance. It may pump a little it may have a big pump, but its going to fall below that lower trendline at some point and my guess is no significant pump out of the ascending channel, but its just a guess i might be wrong.
Nonetheless i hold my alts, but i'll be waiting to buy back in my crypto stocks lower as per the threads on my list.
Comment:
See you at 20K 😸 (just like old times).
Comment:
As some alts are popping, if any of them have an "OMG" pop at a significant resistant landmark - I may sell.
This is the type of thing that may happen at an "end of phase" juncture and before BTC perhaps falls back into accumulation.
I wont sell unless something wild happens though.
Great bit of pop happening on XPR right now.
This is the type of thing that may happen at an "end of phase" juncture and before BTC perhaps falls back into accumulation.
I wont sell unless something wild happens though.
Great bit of pop happening on XPR right now.
Comment:
Its not an OMG pop yet though 😸.
Comment:
Ok I did take some profit on XPR. I know i said I wasn't going to but well its hit a significant fib and even if it goes higher i can still re-cycle that profit into another coin that hasn't pumped. Details on thread.
Comment:
Ok so after a couple of SRP fakeouts, BTC is still pressing the upper trendline and index futures are pushing up.
So i think that most likely outcome is that there will be a flurry to the upside and probably resistance will get tagged at $23565.
Also if it is a top relative to trend I wouldn't be surprised if it went absolutley bananas for a short while, who knows maybe several thousand higher.
At which point all the remaining free lunchers on the sidelines will come FOMOing in and then BTC will collapse.
Or something like that.
Index futures pushing up means there will be another gap and that is only adding to downside cause although its not certain.
So this is just a guess - there are many permutations of course, but just to have a throw at the dartboard, it could be something like this
So i think that most likely outcome is that there will be a flurry to the upside and probably resistance will get tagged at $23565.
Also if it is a top relative to trend I wouldn't be surprised if it went absolutley bananas for a short while, who knows maybe several thousand higher.
At which point all the remaining free lunchers on the sidelines will come FOMOing in and then BTC will collapse.
Or something like that.
Index futures pushing up means there will be another gap and that is only adding to downside cause although its not certain.
So this is just a guess - there are many permutations of course, but just to have a throw at the dartboard, it could be something like this
Comment:
The tide is turning.
Comment:
Nothing too significant has happened for BTC but indexes just slumped at significant fibs and back to back gaps shows potential topping weakness. When they fall BTC will tumble i think. In the meantime alts can go bananas so i have only exited a few alts so far that have pumped well.
Comment:
Another SRP through previous top resistance and if BTC falls back through the yellow upper ascending trendline then that would be quite corrective and favour the whimper fail rather than the blow off top.
Comment:
Well I have sold much of my alts now as indexes are certainly looking weak. I know its not the hodler way but there's this nagging voice in my mind that keeps saying "Take profit, don't be a greedy punk" and i'll be honest - I do listen. It cracks the whip and I hit the sell button. But I made some profit at least.
I have kept SHIB and JASMY that drift sideways in case they pump (and I hodl MATIC as it is stuck on my CB account).
In time I guess that every coin i sold will see a lower price.
See you at 20K!
I have kept SHIB and JASMY that drift sideways in case they pump (and I hodl MATIC as it is stuck on my CB account).
In time I guess that every coin i sold will see a lower price.
See you at 20K!
Comment:
Daily close and its a very long wicked shakeout reversal pattern through previous peak resistance and also the yellow upper ascending trendline. This in the short term is very bearish I think and a good chance this is reflective that the trend is reversing to the downside.
Comment:
Oh and I drew another potential accumulation box 😸.
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Get the "heads up" at critical moments - don't lose your shirt.
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