Continuation from the previous thread that was getting a bit long and there's plenty to talk about...
So yesterday was interesting towards the end of the day following the FOMC rate hike. And there's more to come - GDP and Job data so its very difficult to know how markets will react but what is fairly high probability is there will be some whipsaw.
Yesterday Nasdaq moved up more than 4% and half of that was post FOMC meeting. Its rare for this to happen in a day and its possible the index rocket-ship has arrived but I would suggest the odds favour a pull back and with more events coming up this week the whipsaw is likely to be to the downside. It may not be - we'll see. But BTC pump yesterday was very much in tandem with indexes.
Overnight BTC has tagged the upper trendline of this ascending channel yet again which brings the number of waves to 7.
Ok so whats going on here 🤔?
Well considering elliott wave this can make some confusion - something BTC is very good at. Typically channelling corrective structures have 5 waves and of course waves within waves but now here we have 7 and the previous up wave escaped the channel.
Firstly BTC could just be doing something very exotic and will leave all manual traders confused.
However this previous high currently labelled E looks like a top simply because to broke a typically bearish structure to the upside.
And so although quite impulsive I think that the recent pump may well prove to be a regressive wave that will at some point see BTC move down and finally break this ascending channel to the downside and hitting the orange band that is my target area for phase 2 buys.
It may not get there and I may get left behind for re-entering but if you dont have patience then you dont get the deep buys. And for those of you following my previous thread you'll know that I sold some of my crypto related stocks yesterday and even entered a small short position (that i may regret 😄) against BITO (BTC ETF).
And just to go off on a slight tangent here but; some of the crypto stock / ETF positions I've had have been short puts. And the advantage with these without going into too much detail as it would be very long - is that I sell the ticket to the trade (the premium) to a put buyer who wants price to go down and if i'm right I win the premium. By being the seller I am short the put and therefore it is a bullish position. The amount I can win is capped to the cost of the premium and so when I have won maybe 80% and I think a top may be coming - there is no point to hold the position because I can only make another 20% but I have that 80% to lose.
And so shorting puts (being the seller of the ticket) you are looking for a rinse and repeat cycle. The advantage of such a trade is that lets say I buy MARA at $7 for $4.5 per share then if it goes wrong then at expiry i'll own MARA for $7 - $4.5 = $2.5 under the current market bottom which was $5.2. So having confidence that BTC will go up this was a way to have more exposure but less risk. And now i've sold them I will be looking to hopefully short more puts at a lower price. If it doesn't work out for me its fine I can short more puts anytime and the premium will be back at 0%.
Nasdaq futures are down 1% already today.
I will get my orange band 😁.
Not advice.
So yesterday was interesting towards the end of the day following the FOMC rate hike. And there's more to come - GDP and Job data so its very difficult to know how markets will react but what is fairly high probability is there will be some whipsaw.
Yesterday Nasdaq moved up more than 4% and half of that was post FOMC meeting. Its rare for this to happen in a day and its possible the index rocket-ship has arrived but I would suggest the odds favour a pull back and with more events coming up this week the whipsaw is likely to be to the downside. It may not be - we'll see. But BTC pump yesterday was very much in tandem with indexes.
Overnight BTC has tagged the upper trendline of this ascending channel yet again which brings the number of waves to 7.
Ok so whats going on here 🤔?
Well considering elliott wave this can make some confusion - something BTC is very good at. Typically channelling corrective structures have 5 waves and of course waves within waves but now here we have 7 and the previous up wave escaped the channel.
Firstly BTC could just be doing something very exotic and will leave all manual traders confused.
However this previous high currently labelled E looks like a top simply because to broke a typically bearish structure to the upside.
And so although quite impulsive I think that the recent pump may well prove to be a regressive wave that will at some point see BTC move down and finally break this ascending channel to the downside and hitting the orange band that is my target area for phase 2 buys.
It may not get there and I may get left behind for re-entering but if you dont have patience then you dont get the deep buys. And for those of you following my previous thread you'll know that I sold some of my crypto related stocks yesterday and even entered a small short position (that i may regret 😄) against BITO (BTC ETF).
And just to go off on a slight tangent here but; some of the crypto stock / ETF positions I've had have been short puts. And the advantage with these without going into too much detail as it would be very long - is that I sell the ticket to the trade (the premium) to a put buyer who wants price to go down and if i'm right I win the premium. By being the seller I am short the put and therefore it is a bullish position. The amount I can win is capped to the cost of the premium and so when I have won maybe 80% and I think a top may be coming - there is no point to hold the position because I can only make another 20% but I have that 80% to lose.
And so shorting puts (being the seller of the ticket) you are looking for a rinse and repeat cycle. The advantage of such a trade is that lets say I buy MARA at $7 for $4.5 per share then if it goes wrong then at expiry i'll own MARA for $7 - $4.5 = $2.5 under the current market bottom which was $5.2. So having confidence that BTC will go up this was a way to have more exposure but less risk. And now i've sold them I will be looking to hopefully short more puts at a lower price. If it doesn't work out for me its fine I can short more puts anytime and the premium will be back at 0%.
Nasdaq futures are down 1% already today.
I will get my orange band 😁.
Not advice.
Comment:
Corrective ascending channel with probable Wyckoff events.
Comment:
Well bad news on GDP shrinking and signalling recession obviously will mean the markets pump 😄.
Plenty of whipsaw in indexes and really who knows what happens next until this settles down. Also with BTC now it has broken through the upper trendline could have an enormous blow off top or could collapse, my gut says the latter but its just a guess at this stage.
I'm not covering alts much as i'm not really trading them just letting them run but UNI quite incredible up 52% in 3 days.
Getting the odd message about UNI and obviously it is getting a lot of interest but imo once the train has gone it may be better to look for good ones that are still at the station such as ADA which still has the handbrake on (do trains have handbrakes 🤔?) ADA is often a late pumper.
Anyhow I still think that whatever happens - even if its a blow off top BTC at some point will go below that lower trendline. But we'll see.
Plenty of whipsaw in indexes and really who knows what happens next until this settles down. Also with BTC now it has broken through the upper trendline could have an enormous blow off top or could collapse, my gut says the latter but its just a guess at this stage.
I'm not covering alts much as i'm not really trading them just letting them run but UNI quite incredible up 52% in 3 days.
Getting the odd message about UNI and obviously it is getting a lot of interest but imo once the train has gone it may be better to look for good ones that are still at the station such as ADA which still has the handbrake on (do trains have handbrakes 🤔?) ADA is often a late pumper.
Anyhow I still think that whatever happens - even if its a blow off top BTC at some point will go below that lower trendline. But we'll see.
Comment:
BTC has printed a Shakeout Reversal Pattern Double Top.
Looking at this on different time frames reveals how this game work and on the 1H the SRP is a fast wick.
It appears what happens is the fast wick that is long wicked compared to others is the signal for the algos to turn around. Its just a guess but I think thats what is happening is some way.
And as time passes the SRP will become a wicked candle through resistance on higher time frames.
It also probably Wyckoff UT Upthrust. Different schools of perspective for the same occurrence.
This doesn't have to be be the top but it looks like it will be imo to at least get back to the lower trendline and maybe just maybe my orange band.
Both BTC and NDX making progress upward but they are also very choppy and I think this suggests at some point there is going to be a "surprise" rug-pull for both of them that will see BTC explore below the trendline.
But with all this bearish talk, I'm still long all my alts and have BITO short puts. I won't be touching those till maybe Christmas.
Looking at this on different time frames reveals how this game work and on the 1H the SRP is a fast wick.
It appears what happens is the fast wick that is long wicked compared to others is the signal for the algos to turn around. Its just a guess but I think thats what is happening is some way.
And as time passes the SRP will become a wicked candle through resistance on higher time frames.
It also probably Wyckoff UT Upthrust. Different schools of perspective for the same occurrence.
This doesn't have to be be the top but it looks like it will be imo to at least get back to the lower trendline and maybe just maybe my orange band.
Both BTC and NDX making progress upward but they are also very choppy and I think this suggests at some point there is going to be a "surprise" rug-pull for both of them that will see BTC explore below the trendline.
But with all this bearish talk, I'm still long all my alts and have BITO short puts. I won't be touching those till maybe Christmas.
Comment:
As suggested both Nasdaq and BTC have turned bearish.
Nasdaq futures (NQ1!) high probability its going to get back that that dotted line and i've made a thread on that for anyone interested.
BTC printed a double (wicked) shakeout reversal through previous resistance and that is the type of deceptive activity that is likely to occur at a significant top.
Fallen back into the ascending channel it is getting towards the apex and I think it will fail to the downside soon.
My count is it will be an ABCDE ascending channel into an ABC with 1.618 C wave extension to take BTC down into the yellow band.
Lets see if it happens...
Nasdaq futures (NQ1!) high probability its going to get back that that dotted line and i've made a thread on that for anyone interested.
BTC printed a double (wicked) shakeout reversal through previous resistance and that is the type of deceptive activity that is likely to occur at a significant top.
Fallen back into the ascending channel it is getting towards the apex and I think it will fail to the downside soon.
My count is it will be an ABCDE ascending channel into an ABC with 1.618 C wave extension to take BTC down into the yellow band.
Lets see if it happens...
Comment:
To 19K*. Just to re-iterate I'm not selling alts since they can go nuts of regressive BTC bounces. I only sold crypto related stocks / ETF that are a bit more manageable since they are in the Nasdaq.
Comment:
Before his marcolopes wise guy wets himself i'll point out that BTC is currently in a descending channel so it may have a bounce and that may perhaps form a H&S. WHo knows really - its BTC so expect many fakeouts but ultimately I think it is going to fall below the lower trendline and thats where i'll be interested to have a second phase of buying. It may not get there, nothing is ever 100% but thats what i'm doing.
Comment:
So much going on in other markets and BTC is big yawns. I'll be back when something happens.
Comment:
Oh yeh marcolopes bounce happened i forgot to say, but nothing much happening. BTC is done nothing with NDX pumping and actually I was a bit incorrect on NDX, but it wont make a difference for the rug pull, just at a different level and SPX not doing much I was perhaps right there.
Point being if BTC has done nothing with NDX pumping - what will it do when NDX falls / corrects ?
It will probably fall.
Point being if BTC has done nothing with NDX pumping - what will it do when NDX falls / corrects ?
It will probably fall.
Comment:
Ok downtrend is resuming and could be a leading indicator to indexes. I think it may possibly be...
Comment:
This trendline has been holding the recent corrective drift and the swing low. When it breaks it will probably fall to the HTF lower ascending trendline.
Comment:
As BTC now looks set to hit the lower TL which should inevitably lead to further collapse....
Approaching the top, shortly before marcolopes (genius) arrived I noticed how crypto platforms I use sent me messages like "the crypto market is back!" and I thought of how many free lunch hodlers throughout the world would also be getting these messages.
And of course its all too easy isn't it - you get the message, you wake, you login to your chosen crypto exchanges - buy some coins, then go back to sleep again.
Is that really how the markets operate - to serve the free lunch community? 🤔
And now in retrospect those messages came just before the local top and imo big rug pull.
Is that a coincidence? 🤔
Imagine the liquidity those messages generated.
And as I write this my mind automatically thinks of that bald BitConnect umm singer 😄.
"BITCONNECT!!!"
Approaching the top, shortly before marcolopes (genius) arrived I noticed how crypto platforms I use sent me messages like "the crypto market is back!" and I thought of how many free lunch hodlers throughout the world would also be getting these messages.
And of course its all too easy isn't it - you get the message, you wake, you login to your chosen crypto exchanges - buy some coins, then go back to sleep again.
Is that really how the markets operate - to serve the free lunch community? 🤔
And now in retrospect those messages came just before the local top and imo big rug pull.
Is that a coincidence? 🤔
Imagine the liquidity those messages generated.
And as I write this my mind automatically thinks of that bald BitConnect umm singer 😄.
"BITCONNECT!!!"
Comment:
😴
Comment:
Just posted a thread on MARA - potentially the best crypto related stock imo.
Comment:
Continued updates on next thread linked below ⬇️.
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And so BTC has now fulfilled the expectation for a descending channel, and although there was some considerable downside shenanigans - it eventually broke to the upside.
Now I expect the same thing to happen but in reverse for this ascending channel. It broke to the upside to print a shakeout reversal and now its going on a journey to break the lower trendline to the downside.