BITCOIN - Ascending Patterns

Two ascending corrective wedge channels here probably completing an ABC correction.

Although I'm no longer shorting crypto (due to my location), this is actually the type of setup I'm trading more of in FX.

ABC - with a small SRP (shakeout reversal pattern) double top .

The C wave is a very slow ascent and so very corrective.

So it will probably fall a bit into next week.

The interesting thing is that indexes finished the week very bullish and we'll see if they rock back also and if correlation continues.

So it looks like BTC is falling out the C wave ascent here and now we'll see how far it will fall.

We may see BTC hit the 17K fib below and I think its at least a 50/50 that will happen. It may not though and perhaps the bottom is in.

It might have another flash crash but I think we've seen the worst - if that happens I think it will be more of a shakeout dump than a capitulation.

If the low is in and the next fall is a retracement then likely it will bottom in or near the blue band which is from 0.618 - 0.786.

I've sold all of my swing trade alts mostly for around 40 - 50% profit and I'm hoping to get back in right near where I bought them for another re-test of long term fibs. I have examples of this on my UNI and APE threads.

I also have a HODL allocation that which will remain untouched until I fully exit.

Not advice.

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When the yellow trendline breaks it will probably get moving to the downside.

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Well I guess it was a bit much to ask it to reveal itself before the US markets open.

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Going to answer @MI7070 's question in an update as it is a good one:

"The BTC looks scary..Dont know of BTC will make it to 40K in 1 year time. Everywhere it look soo bearish."

If we want to buy deep value then we must have the confidence and skill to do so in areas when there is a lot of bearish sentiment. And that is what the great investors do.

This is not trend following, it is recognising when the trend is very overextended and buying with confidence that it will swing back the other way to reward the meat of the trade.

There is a saying by some senior wall street fellow Walter Deemer "When The Time Comes To Buy, You Won't Want To" and its so true.

When I made my bearish calls when BTC was up at 60K so many were claiming they would love to buy at 20K however it won't happen. Where are they now? 😸

Anyhow I can't say "see you at 20K" anymore so...

See you at 40K!

Then from there we'll see.

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Interesting to note as so far BTC is looking corrective to the downside as NDX tumbles. Even if BTC does end up tumbling a bit this is a good sign I think.

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Well it did reverse in the blue band as suggested and now we'll see if the previous low can hold. I'm about 50/50 now that the bottom is either in or very nearly in and I will be looking to re-enter my swing alt positions soon.

So from here I will be looking for corrective moves to the downside such as a descending channel to show momentum is shifting to the upside.