The setup on the daily, when viewed in log, is in a broadening descending and a descending in linear. These are still both setups at the macro timeframes, but they mean some short term pain.
* A retest of the prior low $5900 - 6700, setting up a nice .
* If that fails to hold, a new low between $3200 - $4300.
If this plays out, then I'd be extremely confident the bottom was in and another bull run would be eminent.
I'd love to hear your thoughts.
1. Obviously if we bounce here on the 38.2 fib, and make a new high, then most likely the idea is invalidated. There's a caveat here, but I'll explain if this eventuates.
2. If we bounce and make a new high at the 50 "fib" then that is a strong sign. Corrections often retrace to 50% of the prior swing high, so this is where we need to pay close attention.
3. The last stand is the 61.8. There was a fair bit of resistance here on the way up ie. $8k - $8.8k.
We must keep a close eye on those scenarios. But, if the 61.8 is taken out, it's almost a foregone conclusion that 6k will be retested. I expect to see a lot of buying here again and a bounce to $7.2k - $8k would be my target for a scalp long trade. I believe we will then make a lower low into the 5k range, and potentially the 4k range
On the 1hr, we have a rising wedge and significant bear divergence on the RSI:
However on the 4hr and 1D, we have a very large inverse head and shoulders:
For the latter to come to fruition, BTC needs to impulse with some force through the neckline (11.6k) which also happens to be the 38.2 fib.
We have now made a lower high from the previous swing and the buyers are no where to be found.
There are a couple of spots where BTC may find support:
* 20EMA; unlikely in my opinion
* 50MA + 50% fib: a strong bounce here would be a very good sign.
* 200MA: I think this is the most likely at the moment.
If we make it down to the 200MA, the game is certainly still bearish.
We made a big rising wedge, as previously noted, and broke down with some volume. Look for those key areas I've labelled above.
I am keeping an eye on the 4hr 200MA since if it is broken, our bearish scenario is still in play. If we get a strong bounce from the 50% fib, I would be looking for a long entry.
I expect a 1-3 candle bounce on the 4hr, then potentially more downside. I'll provide an update in ~8hrs.
If the 1D 200MA doesn't hold, we may be in for a bigger drop than I originally anticipated:
If we use a rising wedge, and measure the pole, it places us in the <$3k range. This may seem like a big stretch, but it's in play if the 200 doesn't hold. I will open a short trade if we close below the 200MA.
We found strong support at the 200MA previously, but in a down trend, every time you test support, it becomes weaker.
I am thinking something like this will play out; 3 more days of down to give us a 9 on TD. We will likely go back up to the 200MA to test for resistance. And I believe it will likely fail to break above and make a lower low.
I believe we will likely see ~6.4k within the next day or so. We should see a bit of a bounce at the 50% fib, then continue lower after it's rejected at either the 200MA or the 38.2 fib.
Hold tight, there's more low to come.
I think we get there over the next ~24-36hrs
Watch for a break below 8k to confirm, or a break above ~9k to invalidate
We reached a TD9 on the hourly, and now we are in a 2-4 candle bounce, before we begin the next leg down.
This inv H&S is potentially still in play, but it does have a bit of resistance from the MAs to create the right shoulder. So I'm leaning away from this at the moment.
Or were you talking about this h&s on the hourly:
There are a couple things that make me hesitate on this:
1. doesn't have a super clean neckline.
2. the volume doesn't increase all that much.
3. the neckline was breached. (note it is often tested for resistance, but not usually breached).
Let me know if you have other ideas?