BTC
has formed a rising wedge that it broke down from. What would make the most sense to me here is for BTC to test the top of the rising wedge to confirm resistance and then to break down to the lower support levels between $58k-60k.
After that I think we'll then go up to test the top of the range between $76k-78k (which I believe will be the final top for this move). This should all play out by April or by the 1st or 2nd week in April.
Regardless of the path we take here, whether we do go down in the way that I said above, or whether we go straight up to the resistance levels, I do think that once we get to the top of the range, you'll want to sell that region.
I don't think the top is in quite yet, but we're close. Many of my alt charts still have levels to the upside that haven't been hit (Mask, Flow, Etc, and a couple of others), which leads me to believe we still have a little bit more to go in the bullish run. Once we hit the top of the range and many of these alt charts play out, that's when I'll be protective in my positioning.
I'm cautious right here just because of the risk that we go from here to that $58k-$60k level. If that happens, alts will suffer badly. I want to be in cash to buy the bottom of the range for the last move up.
Tl;Dr: buy the bottom of the range, sell the top of the range.
Let's see how it plays out.
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Here comes the push up to the top of the structure. Thinking $71.5-74k top of this move, then the real selloff down to the lower supports begins.
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Still thinking the above idea plays out that we get one more bounce higher first before falling further, just to reset the RSIs on lower timeframes. That said, definitely a possibility that price just continues down here.
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Here's the bounce higher I was expecting. Not sure how high it takes us, but still don't think this is the bullish move bc price shouldn't be able to break through the ichimoku cloud here on LTF.
Think this is going to fake a lot of people out and then there will be one more low before we really bounce.
Think this is going to fake a lot of people out and then there will be one more low before we really bounce.
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Down we go. Looking for bottom targets on the chart.
I plan on buying alts when we get there.
I plan on buying alts when we get there.
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Not turning bullish until those supports are tested. Being patient and waiting for new lows.
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Few different scenarios that I see here. Could change over the coming days but this is what I'm looking for (in order of most probable to least probable).
1. We bounce right here, then go up to $73.6k region, can't break resistance and then fall to $60k target. After that we resume bull trend for final leg higher.
2. We bounce here and are able to break the $73.6k area and hit the final targets and then fall after.
3. Keep falling here to $60k target and bounce after.
So leaning towards bullish before bearish.
1. We bounce right here, then go up to $73.6k region, can't break resistance and then fall to $60k target. After that we resume bull trend for final leg higher.
2. We bounce here and are able to break the $73.6k area and hit the final targets and then fall after.
3. Keep falling here to $60k target and bounce after.
So leaning towards bullish before bearish.
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Despite the drop last night, still leaning bullish before bearish. Let's see if price can reclaim $68k, then $70k+. Again, if we do get up to the
73K
region, that's where I'd want to take profits as I'd expect everyone to turn bullish right when there's risk of the real large move down.
Note: Price needs to hold $55k for this idea to be valid. Below there and things could get ugly fast.
Playing this idea through $VARA as it looks strong.
73K
region, that's where I'd want to take profits as I'd expect everyone to turn bullish right when there's risk of the real large move down. Note: Price needs to hold $55k for this idea to be valid. Below there and things could get ugly fast.
Playing this idea through $VARA as it looks strong.
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Move up happening now. I think it's likely the short term top happens tomorrow somewhere above $70k. Then next week we go down to the bottom target.
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Alright, got the move up over the weekend. Let's see if we keep pushing to
73K
+ or see a reversal. I don't think we'll get a reversal down until after Wednesday but going to be protective here
73K
+ or see a reversal. I don't think we'll get a reversal down until after Wednesday but going to be protective here
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After relooking at the charts, I'm actually leaning more towards staying bullish here. Not sure the downside levels will get tagged before the upside levels do.
If price corrects here and holds the $68k- 69K region, then bullish probability is higher.
Will keep you updated as we see more price action.
If price corrects here and holds the $68k- 69K region, then bullish probability is higher.
Will keep you updated as we see more price action.
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Alright, price is now in the region it needs to bounce at. Bounce here = bullish.
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It can go down to $68.6k
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Bouncing on the dot.
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Alright, well that CPI reaction was negative, next level down is $66.9-66.4k would need a bounce in that range to stay bullish.
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Back to the range from yesterday, still bullish and still think we head to the top of the range before bottom.
I'm now 100% long in alts
I'm now 100% long in alts
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Beautiful move off the bottom. Now testing range highs.
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Price now at first support, let's see if we bounce here or go down to the second support.
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Even though we got the bounce, still leaning towards one more move down to the $58k support before we hit the top resistance levels. It should happen by the end of the weekend, if we don't get it by then, then it'll make me question this idea.
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Okay, ended up getting the move down but it only tagged the $60k support level to form a double bottom and we got a pretty large bounce. I still lean towards another move down though to the $58k support if price can't break and close over $67k. This should play out early next week IMO.
Reasoning = ichi doesn't look like it's ready for price to break through the cloud, RSI levels on short term are already overbought, sentiment already skewed from bearish to bullish, and bollinger bands don't support a squeeze much higher than that.
Reasoning = ichi doesn't look like it's ready for price to break through the cloud, RSI levels on short term are already overbought, sentiment already skewed from bearish to bullish, and bollinger bands don't support a squeeze much higher than that.
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Alright now approaching $67k. This is where I would start to play things more defensively. Tighten up stops, etc.
$66.9k is first resistance, second is $68,158. If we reject those regions, expect a large pullback before we see continuation.
$66.9k is first resistance, second is $68,158. If we reject those regions, expect a large pullback before we see continuation.
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So far two rejections off the first resistance. Lean towards getting a break up tomorrow to $68k. If it happens, it's a sell.
Alts should benefit from this, but moves there would also be a sell.
Currently long certain alts, will take profits if we get a big move.
Alts should benefit from this, but moves there would also be a sell.
Currently long certain alts, will take profits if we get a big move.
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Still think we sweep the highs before more downside. Downside seems too obvious now. Most people I see are bearish.
Need to hold this area right here for this to play out.
Need to hold this area right here for this to play out.
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Currently flat. I don't like the price action, could see one more move higher, but because I think we hit $58k, I'd rather wait for that before going long as we could see a rug pull at any time.
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My guess would be that we see the sweep of the lows next week, then we'll see the last leg higher.