Sherem
Long

Shorts hitting all time highs, but BTC isn't making a new low?!?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Chart update. BTC             is going to be lagging behind ETH for the time being. ETH/BTC             is starting to turn up and as long as it continues it will dampen moves to the upside in BTC             .

On the Day time frame we have
1. MACD that is flat
2. RSI coming off these low and confirming divergence

On this 4 hour chart we have.
1. MACD in flat territory
2. Mini Wedge forming
3. If you look, BTC             is currently sitting on my support point, broken trendline (possible retest) and small upwards trend line .

I said it once before that if we move sideways it would most likely confirm a move to the upside. So, if we base out in this channel I would imagine we would get another push up. I am leaning bullish on this one, and to be frank I am not worried about anything breaking down and I will holding for a swing play. I will tell you why and how to trade it.

Here is why I am not concerned. Notice how Shorts are increasing but price is not. On 4/1 (green vertical line) we had shorts drive price down to $6,400 and increase short exposure substantially and now shorts have increased there positions AGAIN and we aren't breaking lower. We even had some longs close out on this last big candle down and we didn't get a push down to 6.4k. If I were short I would not want to be seeing this.

How to trade it? It's not out of the realm of possibility that we will get another push down. The best thing to do is martingale your positions in. Have laddered buys down to 3.5k, with some reserves in place in case it pushes even lower past 4k. This is a great SWING play IMO             . We don't know when it's going to turn but shorts are going to cover eventually either they will get squeezed or they will take profit. A martingale strategy here is a great play IMO             , make sure you read up on it if you don't know what it is.

If this analysis added some value to your thought process, please smash that like button!

Happy Trading. Don't stress, pick your points and DON'T USE LEVERAGE.
-Sherem

If you want a more detailed post on my short analysis, check out my previous post -
Comment: Correction * "pushes even lower past 3.5k" not 4k. I was debating which area would be more of a viable support if we got a push down.
Comment: Look at the chart when you click the arrow. Shorts are increasing there positions, longs aren't and price is moving UP against shorts. If we bust this wedge and move to the upside, shorts are gonna have a bad time.
Comment: It's stayed in this wedge quite nicely. If we break it to the upside it should continue on to a minimum of $7,500 and then possibly test those larger trendlines in the 7.8k-8k area.

Comment: Still not pushing down really even though we have an increase in shorts. It's only been steady because of this increase in ETH/BTC. Hmmmm, short squeeze on order already?
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