The previous idea only confirmed-scenario played out pretty nicely and we have reached to the major targe/resistance area. Historically (2019) the strongest area between 10k-13k is $11,000. It has worked multiple times as a resistance, it has worked multiple times as a support, strong and powerful candle breakthroughs and etc. A lot of important moves has started just from the mentioned price level.
At the moment, again, this level could be a major decision point for a mid-term perspective. We already know that the horizontal level is really strong but there are other factors which can stop the price or even reverse it:
1. Okay, we have the round number $11,000, a horizontal level which acts as a resistance. Historically, it has improved itself multiple times and in case to leave the history out of the current price action it would be a huge mistake - always look left.
2. The trendline from this year's high and second touch 6th of August. The third touch should act as a resistance level and it matching almost perfectly with the strong horizontal level. Two major criteria matching each other is a pretty powerful setup but still, not enough criteria.
3. The third one is slightly above the majors crossing area but it can work nicely as a "fake-out catcher". The Fibonacci retracement level 62% locates slightly above the crossing area - $11,179 - but it should still play an important role considering the support area.
Those three were the major criteria from the 4H chart. To jump a little bit ahead from the action, then there are two confirmation boxes. One is the red one and one is the green one. Both have to be there because the area is crucial but I have scenarios for both of them and they are not just drawn arrows they are confirmed arrows. Offtopic: really good analysis are those when we are, for example, inside the triangle and they draw the lines to both directions without any confirmation scenarios: "it goes there!" but why, but when?! And the second genius generation hangs around in the comment section. We haven't seen any confirmation or any bearish/bullish candlestick patterns and if it doesn't follow my arrow then the fun begins, go and look gurus comments from some previous trading ideas! ;) (obviously, they haven't even read a line from the analysis)
Back to the idea,...both are confirmed arrows... Firstly, the price approach the red area and I would like to talk a bit deeper about the selling opportunity. We had already three major criteria listed but to dig a little bit deeper, we have to open a 1H timeframe:
Criteria list inside the marked red area can be added:
4. Short-term parallel channel projections are pointed into the marked area
5. Short-term AB=CD's are pointed into the marked area.
6. Short-term Fibonacci Extension
7. To trigger the trade, wait for a rejection from $11,000 - $11,180,. It has to end with a bearish candlestick pattern at least on the 1H timeframe.
Okay, I talked through the bearish scenario and the trigger opportunity is known. BUT, If we don't get that mentioned bearish candlestick pattern? What then? And if the price breaks above the resistance? "You said that it is strong price level blablablaaa..."
Then the green confirmation area kicks in. While the price reaches there then it has to reach there with a strong and powerful candle AND if it's there (4h candle) then it needs to get a close there, inside or slightly above the green area. And I will say almost 100% that if the breakout (above the trendline and 11k) occurs then this can only occur with a strong and powerful candle because the area is pretty, as said, crucial! After a breakout, we have broken the counter-trendline (counter-trendline breakouts are really powerful). As you see, I have an arrow pointed downwards to retest the 11k level. It needs to be as shown. Please, do not FOMO!!! Wait for a pullback, let a market breath out and then jump into the new wave. Is the 11k a good place to buy after the breakout, I'll make an update while it has occurred.
Have a great weekend,
Vaido
At the moment, again, this level could be a major decision point for a mid-term perspective. We already know that the horizontal level is really strong but there are other factors which can stop the price or even reverse it:
1. Okay, we have the round number $11,000, a horizontal level which acts as a resistance. Historically, it has improved itself multiple times and in case to leave the history out of the current price action it would be a huge mistake - always look left.
2. The trendline from this year's high and second touch 6th of August. The third touch should act as a resistance level and it matching almost perfectly with the strong horizontal level. Two major criteria matching each other is a pretty powerful setup but still, not enough criteria.
3. The third one is slightly above the majors crossing area but it can work nicely as a "fake-out catcher". The Fibonacci retracement level 62% locates slightly above the crossing area - $11,179 - but it should still play an important role considering the support area.
Those three were the major criteria from the 4H chart. To jump a little bit ahead from the action, then there are two confirmation boxes. One is the red one and one is the green one. Both have to be there because the area is crucial but I have scenarios for both of them and they are not just drawn arrows they are confirmed arrows. Offtopic: really good analysis are those when we are, for example, inside the triangle and they draw the lines to both directions without any confirmation scenarios: "it goes there!" but why, but when?! And the second genius generation hangs around in the comment section. We haven't seen any confirmation or any bearish/bullish candlestick patterns and if it doesn't follow my arrow then the fun begins, go and look gurus comments from some previous trading ideas! ;) (obviously, they haven't even read a line from the analysis)
Back to the idea,...both are confirmed arrows... Firstly, the price approach the red area and I would like to talk a bit deeper about the selling opportunity. We had already three major criteria listed but to dig a little bit deeper, we have to open a 1H timeframe:
4. Short-term parallel channel projections are pointed into the marked area
5. Short-term AB=CD's are pointed into the marked area.
6. Short-term Fibonacci Extension
7. To trigger the trade, wait for a rejection from $11,000 - $11,180,. It has to end with a bearish candlestick pattern at least on the 1H timeframe.
Okay, I talked through the bearish scenario and the trigger opportunity is known. BUT, If we don't get that mentioned bearish candlestick pattern? What then? And if the price breaks above the resistance? "You said that it is strong price level blablablaaa..."
Then the green confirmation area kicks in. While the price reaches there then it has to reach there with a strong and powerful candle AND if it's there (4h candle) then it needs to get a close there, inside or slightly above the green area. And I will say almost 100% that if the breakout (above the trendline and 11k) occurs then this can only occur with a strong and powerful candle because the area is pretty, as said, crucial! After a breakout, we have broken the counter-trendline (counter-trendline breakouts are really powerful). As you see, I have an arrow pointed downwards to retest the 11k level. It needs to be as shown. Please, do not FOMO!!! Wait for a pullback, let a market breath out and then jump into the new wave. Is the 11k a good place to buy after the breakout, I'll make an update while it has occurred.
Have a great weekend,
Vaido
Comment:
Damn, it started while I typed it!!!
Comment:
....as you see on the 1H picture. Hopefully, you find something educational from here!