I don't have much to add to my previous analysis, so i am copying my last one :) I will post some new info in the update:
So here we are, still in side this big bear flag which almost guarantees we will see another big drop towards some the targets i have been calling for a while now, those 6K and 4K levels. Thing is, i was calling for these levels when we were still in the 9K and 10K levels and i felt quite comfortable with that because most people were still looking up and were still hoping for higher prices. TV does not represent the whole crypto market of course, maybe it's 1% maybe it's 20% i don't know. But we can assume that it does represent at least some of the average thought. Most people here, analysts and followers have become bears. Thing is markets usually don't move into the direction that everybody expects, that's my main reason why i don't think we will see those low prices this week.
It's something what i have been seeing the last month, when price was above the 9K most were bullish and when price got below 8K most became bears again. And they kept on changing each time we crossed these levels. It's has always been like that, the higher prices go the more bullish the bulls get. And of course the lower prices go the more bearish bears get.
2 days ago i thought (half way of the pattern) we were making a wedge which would predict a small relief rally towards 7300/7500 but within an hour or 2 after i posted it price already got to high to still make it a wedge . Now we are making a big bear flag again, which is really starting to weaken now, because the highs keep getting lower which let you see a descending triangle (just like the one we saw 4 days ago). Even if this pattern is just it, normally it would be to soon to break the low already and i would expect a small rise towards 6900/7000 before dropping again. Not necessary of course, but it's what usually happens. These consolidation's or flags, usually confuse day traders but there is no real confusion yet because most are still bears.
What you have to understand, markets take the direction where buyers and sellers take it of course, but as in the normal markets you have another party that have different strategies. Banks and hedge funds, they tend to take the direction where most liquidity is. Meaning that if most people are selling or going short, they are more than happy to let you sell into their buy orders. What is their next goal, they try to push prices higher and make an attempt to force a short squeeze so all the bears cut their losses and close their position's with a loss. The same thing happens on the other side as well of course. Think about the 11K levels everything was looking so bullish and most here were buying and buying again. Another good example is that range of 7800/9000 2 months back (after the 6K low) that range confused allot of people (including me :)).
I have been expecting low prices for a long time now, my followers know i am a big bear when it comes to the Bitcoin 3.47% . I just did not expect it to drop this fast and so low already. Which could mean i am slightly off with my theory, or i am completely wrong and that even i give this market to much credit :). Meaning it's even weaker than i thought and the crash will be even more severe and faster than i thought.
So what do i expect, as long as we don't break the 6500 and a max of 6000, that it's time to shake out all the bears and make them bulls again. Ideally we get above the 8K because than most people will get hope again. As long as price stays below 9200/9800 everything is still bearish on the long term.
It's still weekend now, so even IF we drop, i think it will be later tonight when Asia wakes up again. Maybe i will go short when we break the low at 6600/6500, don't know yet. But for the ones who are still short, just be on the lookout if a very big buying candle shows up, like the one i have showed several times lately. That could indicate a reversal
So here we are, still in side this big bear flag which almost guarantees we will see another big drop towards some the targets i have been calling for a while now, those 6K and 4K levels. Thing is, i was calling for these levels when we were still in the 9K and 10K levels and i felt quite comfortable with that because most people were still looking up and were still hoping for higher prices. TV does not represent the whole crypto market of course, maybe it's 1% maybe it's 20% i don't know. But we can assume that it does represent at least some of the average thought. Most people here, analysts and followers have become bears. Thing is markets usually don't move into the direction that everybody expects, that's my main reason why i don't think we will see those low prices this week.
It's something what i have been seeing the last month, when price was above the 9K most were bullish and when price got below 8K most became bears again. And they kept on changing each time we crossed these levels. It's has always been like that, the higher prices go the more bullish the bulls get. And of course the lower prices go the more bearish bears get.
2 days ago i thought (half way of the pattern) we were making a wedge which would predict a small relief rally towards 7300/7500 but within an hour or 2 after i posted it price already got to high to still make it a wedge . Now we are making a big bear flag again, which is really starting to weaken now, because the highs keep getting lower which let you see a descending triangle (just like the one we saw 4 days ago). Even if this pattern is just it, normally it would be to soon to break the low already and i would expect a small rise towards 6900/7000 before dropping again. Not necessary of course, but it's what usually happens. These consolidation's or flags, usually confuse day traders but there is no real confusion yet because most are still bears.
What you have to understand, markets take the direction where buyers and sellers take it of course, but as in the normal markets you have another party that have different strategies. Banks and hedge funds, they tend to take the direction where most liquidity is. Meaning that if most people are selling or going short, they are more than happy to let you sell into their buy orders. What is their next goal, they try to push prices higher and make an attempt to force a short squeeze so all the bears cut their losses and close their position's with a loss. The same thing happens on the other side as well of course. Think about the 11K levels everything was looking so bullish and most here were buying and buying again. Another good example is that range of 7800/9000 2 months back (after the 6K low) that range confused allot of people (including me :)).
I have been expecting low prices for a long time now, my followers know i am a big bear when it comes to the Bitcoin 3.47% . I just did not expect it to drop this fast and so low already. Which could mean i am slightly off with my theory, or i am completely wrong and that even i give this market to much credit :). Meaning it's even weaker than i thought and the crash will be even more severe and faster than i thought.
So what do i expect, as long as we don't break the 6500 and a max of 6000, that it's time to shake out all the bears and make them bulls again. Ideally we get above the 8K because than most people will get hope again. As long as price stays below 9200/9800 everything is still bearish on the long term.
It's still weekend now, so even IF we drop, i think it will be later tonight when Asia wakes up again. Maybe i will go short when we break the low at 6600/6500, don't know yet. But for the ones who are still short, just be on the lookout if a very big buying candle shows up, like the one i have showed several times lately. That could indicate a reversal
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Bull flags have been failing allot lately, At the moment we have a small bull flag again against the resistance line of that big bear flag/triangle. So chances are bigger that price stays within this flag and just breaks out upwards to start another rally. But thats getting ahead of things. Price could also go sideways for (half) a day to cool down and to find out if sellers have decreased before taking chances to go higher again. As for now, i will probably add to my long position if i think price is getting stable enough to do so. I will try to keep you up to date. I am out several times today (yes i have a life outside of this :)).
Keep the likes coming guys, i feel disappointed the last few days. Bring it back up to at least 300 this time again, put me in the top of the lists again if you appreciate my analysis. If you feel even more grateful than that, look up my twitter page and you know what to do :)
Keep the likes coming guys, i feel disappointed the last few days. Bring it back up to at least 300 this time again, put me in the top of the lists again if you appreciate my analysis. If you feel even more grateful than that, look up my twitter page and you know what to do :)
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Price stays above 6900/6950 price could go much higher today. Until now price looks quite stable, bulls appear to be in control. It has to stay inside that channel, otherwise price could make a drop towards 6700/6800 to make a right shoulder for an inverse H&S.
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I think this upwards channel, is a bullish flag, indicating there is still allot of bullish power in it, so my guess is we will see another 300/500 point rally today, maybe even within a few hours. But for this rally to happen, price has to stay in that upwards channel
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This is my plan now, my long position from 6470 has a stop around 6700. I have just added at 6990, these have a stop at 6940. If price does drop and we follow that blue line to make a right shoulder for an inverse H&S, i will add again around 6750
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Dropped out of the channel earlier, but still hanging around the highs. So seems bulls are still in control! If price stays above that green area around 6940, than i expect a move that breaks the 7100 with conviction!
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In this picture we see the bearish view of what's happening, highs getting less high and the last high was a lower one. So this trend line where it's still hanging on has to work as a support and we should see a bounce within the next 2 hours. Otherwise we could still see the 6700/6800.
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So price dropped out of that pattern and is making a small bear flag. Earlier today bulls caught the drop and pushed it back up again, BUT a lower high was developed than. So short term picture is weakening.
Let's see if the same buyers get in here again.
Let's see if the same buyers get in here again.
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I was about to write about what i saw at Bitmex. I was seeing some very big buy orders there, just waiting to get sold in to, with prices around 6970. That's why i wanted to say that it looks like an accumulation fase. I even wrote that a fast spike down of 50 to 150 points could be part of the plan. While i was still writing it made that 100 point drop and i thought it would be quite foolish to still post it :)
But now that i am seeing that small bear flag is failing and price jumped up again, it almost confirms the plan. But even more because it seems the same buyers who caught the price falling a few hours earlier at 6890/7000, have done it again. We are not there yet, a push above 7100 and a small rally would only THAN confirm this story. Now could be making a small bull flag to push the price higher.
I am curious to find out what happens, because if this story checks out, we could have won a small edge on the whales. I am waiting and looking at the screen with a big smile ready to find out if i am crazy or maybe a humble genius :) LOL
Don't even care anymore about the profit of my long position, i just want to no if i am seeing this right
But now that i am seeing that small bear flag is failing and price jumped up again, it almost confirms the plan. But even more because it seems the same buyers who caught the price falling a few hours earlier at 6890/7000, have done it again. We are not there yet, a push above 7100 and a small rally would only THAN confirm this story. Now could be making a small bull flag to push the price higher.
I am curious to find out what happens, because if this story checks out, we could have won a small edge on the whales. I am waiting and looking at the screen with a big smile ready to find out if i am crazy or maybe a humble genius :) LOL
Don't even care anymore about the profit of my long position, i just want to no if i am seeing this right
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I have put my stop around 6850, because if this fails we could drop towards the 67xx
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So far so good :) first obstacle is concurred, the biggest one is 7100. So we are not there yet!
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Should not drop back in the flag, chances decrease that this small rally will succeed, if so i will move my stop to around 6950
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Look at this one
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And this one :), almost identical
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Almost :)
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Still some hesitation, should take too long
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The 7000 should hold for bullish momentum to stay strong
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I think it's quite safe to say now, at least, that i am not crazy :)
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I think i deserve some more likes for this analysis :)
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The sooner we break this bull flag, the more strength the next wave will have
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Remember this idea from a few days back? I know most of you think/thought it was not a good call. But the wedge just got a different shape. Not showing off here, just showing you what i am always saying, the story a chart tells, that's what it's all about, not the patterns/indicators or whatever, those are just tools.
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Whatever happens next, price should stay above 7000/6950
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Still not the big squeeze i was waiting for, maybe the 7200/7300 needs to get triggered
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Next update if likes get above 400. Calling it a day for now, good luck
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Last update for now, keep up the likes guys, thank you :) Push it to 500 now LOL :)
It's at the top of the channel now and against that heavy resistance of 7300. I was hoping for a big squeeze that would push right through it, but it seems it won't be that easy. Could still happen any minute of course, but a cool down and some sideways action could also be in order.
It's at the top of the channel now and against that heavy resistance of 7300. I was hoping for a big squeeze that would push right through it, but it seems it won't be that easy. Could still happen any minute of course, but a cool down and some sideways action could also be in order.
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Push it above 500 likes, and i will post a new analysis
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We could go slightly sideways now,maybe even drop a bit, it's all good because we have a real breakout. As long as price stays above 7100 things are still bullish short term. We should not drop below the 6900!! I am holding on to my position from 6470, i think much higher prices are still posible
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I have closed half at 7330, Think we will drop out of that channel again. One of my contra indicators (analyst here), just went long so i think price will drop through his stop now before continuing up again. Or we start crashing again :) LOL
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Zoom in
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Don't forget to follow my twitter page as well. No updates yet, but will do it soon
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Ignore the last update, it's against the rules. I really need to look up the house rules
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Don't forget the original idea. Look at that green area inside the bigger blue one. That's the main reason i closed half already. Can always buy it back again lower or maybe higher, but i have reduced risk. You never loose when taking profit :).
Thanks guys, you have put me at the nr 1 spot again of BTC Ideas, but i think i earned it with this analysis :) For the ones who feel more grateful, you know what you could do to me motivated, until now still only 2 people
Thanks guys, you have put me at the nr 1 spot again of BTC Ideas, but i think i earned it with this analysis :) For the ones who feel more grateful, you know what you could do to me motivated, until now still only 2 people
Comment:
New idea posted
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That bear trap indicates a reversal, shows that whales were planning something for a while now and they did it again as they always do, fooling everyone! Expect me, because i went long at 6475 yesterday (posted it real time). I have to admitt i was not convinced of course, but that is what markets do, confuse you. Meaning sometimes you have to make those contrary decisions. Normally a bear trap like this would nog give a 1 or 2 day reversal, should be a move that takes longer. What that bear trap exactly means and why it happens, we all want to know that of course. I told about these things several times in all my analysis and many updates. So start to read when you want to learn that :).
This chart was what i posted yesterday with the following comment:
This could maybe even be the most likely outcome, i did not show it in the primary chart because it would become to confusing. I have seen these kind of moves many times in the stock market after a big drop. It's all guessing though, so it's difficult to hang a trading strategy on it.
My luck (maybe) was that a small bear flag gave a target around 6350/6450, so i based my entry level on that.