Friends I hope you have all had a lovely and relaxing weekend! I am eager to start preparations for the Thanksgiving holidays, but I find it imperative to publish something today on the case for a top already being in with Bitcoin. I know MOST will disagree with this, but its something that I have as a REAL POSSIBILITY. First lets discuss the technical factors. While many will not agree, the charts scream louder than the retail voices I hear. First, let it me made perfectly clear, Bitcoin is in its final fifth wave. The debate now is on the sub waves that comprise that final move. All Bull markets exhibit a 5-3-5 count going up. Meaning 5 waves, followed by 3 corrective waves down (typically zig zags or ABC's). In a bear market the script is reversed and we see that same count but instead of up, the 5 wave counts are DOWN, and the corrective 3 waves are UP. Right now we have 4 definitive waves lower from our move from $69K to $55.6K. If we lose that $55K area and put in a smaller sub wave down to somewhere between $52.8K-$55K, that would satisfy the EW counts down. It would be upon that ABC retrace UP, that I would expect $Alts to move BIG! FWIW, $ETH clearly has one more wave to go, as it does NOT have a final fifth. This makes perfect sense as we saw $ETH PEAK AFTER BITCOIN IN 2017. I am expecting something similar this cycle. if for some reason we LOSE the 52.8K area, make no mistake the TOP IS IN! Period. It would just mean we need to redraw our Fib levels to determine the retrace on the ABC up and Lower high level for Bitcoin before the Bear awakens from Hibernation and sends $BTC lower. Lastly, I use sentiment a lot in my work, & one thing that seems to resonate with a lot of other chartists and traders is that $BTC has to have a parabolic blow off top. THAT IS NOT CORRECT! Its one of the main reasons that I think this lower target begins to make a lot of sense from a contrarian point of view. Mr. Market has a way of humbling people, even great technicians. It is my opinion that regardless of the top being $69K, or maybe we still have one last sub wave higher to the $70K's, that Bitcoin will NOT go over $100K this cycle. Furthermore when we look at the ENTIRE CYCLE of $BTC from 2010 to 2021, we also have what they refer to as a GRAND EW CYCLE, and guess what? It has a perfect 5 wave count up. As markets mature the expectations for larger gains should decrease, but retail is still expecting repeats of 2011,2013, and 2017. That is not how markets work. Add to that, we are at nose bleed levels in equities, and you have a recipe for a SURPRISE, but this time the surprise will be to the down side versus up. I believe we are near the end friends, and that is ok. Enjoy your ride with your $ALTS, but keep an eye to $BTC, for when its retrace is over, so will the entire crypto complex. Have a wonderful week! JT
ps--IF (BIG IF HERE), $69K was the top, I missed my own target of $73K by 5.5%. I call that a win (especially in crypto!)
ps--IF (BIG IF HERE), $69K was the top, I missed my own target of $73K by 5.5%. I call that a win (especially in crypto!)
JT