The green and red lines exhibit a channel of price action, with the widest point (highest ) coming at the 2013 bubble peak and declining steadily for the rest of bitcoin's life. This makes sense as the markets mature. If this holds true, we can expect each parabolic rise to the cycle peaks to be less vertical in shape and each resulting crash to be less intense as well. Basically each cycle will be slightly flatter than the last.
The blue curves are rough price trends that the price followed last time. This can give us a guess as to timings. Price hits the bottom about a year or so before the next halving each time, and comes close to the red support line near the halving where it gets a small peak before beginning the bull run in earnest. Last time, price stayed below the blue line until bottoming out, at which point it then rose above the blue line until following it fairly closely and underneath it up to the next ATH . This is basically exactly what we're seeing right now. The yellow line therefore represents a decent guess for the price trend for the rest of the current cycle.
Key takeaways here are that we have already hit bottom for this cycle. We could still decline down to the red line (a little above $4k currently) but overall the trend will be up until the next peak and I wouldn't expect price to ever drop below 4k again. We will likely have a small peak around the time of the halving around 10-12k before falling back closer to the blue . We should reach our previous ATH in early 2021 with a cycle top around the end of 2021 or very early 2022 somewhere around 85-90k. This peak price is also supported by the idea that traders will front run the $100k psychological barrier, followed by panic selling of investors worried they will be unable to hit their 100k targets. I would then expect the next cycle's bottom to be somewhere between 25-30k depending on timing, sometime between mid 2022 to early 2023.
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