BTC impulse analysis. What happens if 6070 and 5755 don't hold?
Before reading the analysis please take in consideration the following things:
1.This is not an Elliot Wave analysis! We did not group waves in 1-2-3-4-5, ABC, WXY etc. All we did was to measure each move down and we tried to find a relationship between its length (projected from the end of the correction) and the length of the next move down.
2.This bearish scenario could be validated only by a break of the 5800 support.
Blue: 9990 -> 8980 corrected to 9393. It's 1 to 1 extensions is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move, 1.7% off target.
Black: 9393 -> 8204 corrected to 8884. It's 0.786 (normally you would have used the 0.618) extension is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move, 0.35% off target. It's 1.618 is near the bottom of the impulse from red 0 to red 1.618.
Red: 8884 -> 7925 corrected to 8644. It's 1.618 extension is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move, 0.8% off target.
Orange: 8644 -> 7040 corrected to 7779. It's 1 to 1 extension is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move 1.04% off target.
Yellow: 7779 -> 6107 corrected to 6849. It's 0.618 extension is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move, 0.5% off target. The 1.618 extension is at 5177.
Purple: 6849 -> 5755 corrected to 6839. It's 1 to 1 extension is at 5794 and the 1.618 extension is at 5132.
Gray: 6839 -> 6079 corrected to 6339. It's 0.618 extension is at 5869, the 1 to 1 extension is at 5580 and the 1.618 extension is at 5110.
If we combine the waves according to Elliot’s rules we find targets between 5200 and 4800.
Elliot Wave Theory is very subjective but the relationship between the impulsive moves is not.
So what happens if 6079 and 5755 do not hold? It would make sense to find support at 4970 but the extensions point to the 5110-5178 area and to be honest we wouldn’t be surprised at all if FOMO kicks in before touching 4970.
1.This is not an Elliot Wave analysis! We did not group waves in 1-2-3-4-5, ABC, WXY etc. All we did was to measure each move down and we tried to find a relationship between its length (projected from the end of the correction) and the length of the next move down.
2.This bearish scenario could be validated only by a break of the 5800 support.
Blue: 9990 -> 8980 corrected to 9393. It's 1 to 1 extensions is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move, 1.7% off target.
Black: 9393 -> 8204 corrected to 8884. It's 0.786 (normally you would have used the 0.618) extension is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move, 0.35% off target. It's 1.618 is near the bottom of the impulse from red 0 to red 1.618.
Red: 8884 -> 7925 corrected to 8644. It's 1.618 extension is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move, 0.8% off target.
Orange: 8644 -> 7040 corrected to 7779. It's 1 to 1 extension is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move 1.04% off target.
Yellow: 7779 -> 6107 corrected to 6849. It's 0.618 extension is almost at the bottom of the next impulsive move, 0.5% off target. The 1.618 extension is at 5177.
Purple: 6849 -> 5755 corrected to 6839. It's 1 to 1 extension is at 5794 and the 1.618 extension is at 5132.
Gray: 6839 -> 6079 corrected to 6339. It's 0.618 extension is at 5869, the 1 to 1 extension is at 5580 and the 1.618 extension is at 5110.
If we combine the waves according to Elliot’s rules we find targets between 5200 and 4800.
Elliot Wave Theory is very subjective but the relationship between the impulsive moves is not.
So what happens if 6079 and 5755 do not hold? It would make sense to find support at 4970 but the extensions point to the 5110-5178 area and to be honest we wouldn’t be surprised at all if FOMO kicks in before touching 4970.
The average of the major down moves (swing high to swing low) is 47.14%. Try to guess where would the swing low be this time according to this average! Hint: look at the extensions from the previous update.