trader211

Bitcoin Testing the 200 Day EMA

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
If BTC breaks the 200 day its likely we will be in a bear market for a while as it attempts a full retrace. It took a long time to recover the last time price dropped under the 200 day. On the other hand, if it can climb back above the 100 day its likely to test the the 50 day indicating we may start to see a trend reversal. We need a catalyst to push it one way or the other.

I'm looking for opprotunities to short if price breaks the the 200 day EMA
I'm looking for opprotunities to buy if price breaks the the 50 day EMA
Comment: Well price first broke the 200 MA a couple months ago in Feb, and BTC as of now its still down about $1200 from where it was at when it crossed this level. As much as I want it to go back up, which is possible, but there is nothing fundamental or technical that indicates it will anytime soon. Simply put, the charts are only telling us price is still dropping.

I think it might continue to drop until it reaches a price where mining 1 bitcoin cost around the same or more then it would to buy 1 bitcoin. Right now, the average price to mine a single bitcoin in the U.S. is a little under 5k.

It might find its bottom around 6k, but it seems the bears are trying to push this to 5k. I don't like to pick tops or bottoms, but I will probably add to my long term portfolio when/if it drops to 5k depending on how much it cost to mine a single bitcoin at that time. I don't think miners will sell for a loss, which should decrease supply causing bitcoin to rise as long as demand does not also decrease.

Also, the chart is mirroring what took place at the end of 2013 and for the year of 2014, so its indicating a bear market until the end of the year, but of course that can change if some catalyst (or manipulators) causes another surge in demand.

Of course, these are just my unfiltered thoughts and not trading/investing advice. I'm still bullish on cryptos long term so I continue to analyze on a longer term basis to find good buy in prices for my portfolio. Especially since bitcoin pulls the other coins with it in whichever direction it goes.

However, the volatility right now is great for trading and none of this analysis really matters when it comes to active or swing trading. All I care about when trading is volatility and following my trading & MM rules. A lot of money can be made just by trading the bounces when it makes a new low.

What do you guys think about bitcoin, and other cryptos as well? (NEO almost at $45) I've come to realize it can be more beneficial to talk and share thoughts on an asset rather then consistently stare at charts. After a while, you can make the charts show pretty much anything you want it to show.

Some things I been thinking about:
Will some other coin takes bitcion's place as king?
What about the lightning network?
Perhaps a bear year like 2014? This would cause all coins to continue to drop in price, and present some excellent buying opportunities across the board.
What about the relationship between the cost of mining a bitcoin and it's trading price?

Okay, I'm done. I'm not trying to predict anything, I just enjoy this game and am interested to see what other enthusiasts think.
Good analysis. Ethereum has a good shot to become king and replace bitcoin. Bitcoin cash has a good shot too because of no confirmation transactions. It makes more sense to be used like cash. Thats why they called it bitcoin cash. And bitcoin cashs's fees are almost non existent
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trader211 ChristopherCook
@ChristopherCook, Thanks for your input. Its interesting how cryptos are evolving, and we are only at the beginning. I haven't spent much time studying Bitcoin Cash yet, but coins like NANO can scale infinitely and do instant transactions with zero fees. It will be exciting to see how it will play out once there is mass adoption. I look at it like coins competing to be leaders in the major sectors of cryptocurrencies. Such as a top peer-to-peer currency coin, top platform, top exchange coin, top protocol coin, etc.
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