Good evening all, it's probably time to bring out the weekly higher timeframe view again to give you a view of where i personally think BTC is heading.
Of course we have the global issues going on right now and those are very real risks, however, focussing on the TA you can see what price action is telling you.
I previously indicated I was seeing a line up of all the stochastic indicators from daily up to a monthly chart and that typically that indicates a statistical likelihood of a strong move in that direction, in this case bullish. I also talked about the general strength typically seen in Q4 by BTC with October and November being its most profitable months in the year. I also discussed the monthly RSI and it in the area to return to the upside and the supporting view of the weekly Gaussian channel which if broken to the upside would suggest a continuation of price action.
Regarding major breakdown and the formation of a macro 2 Elliot Wave indicating that 31.8k was our top, i think the chance for that to happen was in September and the bears did not capitalise on that or rather the bulls defended the 25k area such that we did not see that breakdown to 20k to 22k. I think the ball is now firmly in the court of the bulls and that it is now the opportunity to break the very resilient 32k level. In doing so I expect to see an acceleration of price because it would like take out the final steadfast short positions since it would be a major break. You can consider the two previous attempts as soaking up those positions, Now it is time for attempt number 3 and whilst i think there is potential resistance initially ultimately i would anticipate for this to be broken with force to signify the bull market is here. I discussed why this level was so important in the monthly update.
I maintain the view that this cycle is more akin to the 2016 bull cycle with a grinding movement into the halving then a pullback into the main macro wave 3 extension and have done since the lows formed at 15k. Obviously there are differences we don't repeat but the structure has suggested a climbing the wall of worry structure as opposed to the big acceleration we saw in 2019 followed by the covid swan dump fueled by economic decisions/stimulus at the time. There is the left tailside risk of recession in the new year and that is always something to keep in the back of our minds but the indications for this have not arisen just yet.
That's the background out the way, now what does the chart indicate? :D
**Trend Lines**
Lots of lines here so here's what they mean:
-Macro Bullish Trend - The blue trendlines indicate the current macro bullish trend that has been holding since January. Note that we came close to this area on the retest of 25k arguably a retest. There is a similar topside trendline which could potentially indicate a resistance area to the upside. Using fib projections it suggests we might meet this areas around the 38.8k - 41k area sometime in January 2024. That could be a potential top of Macro Wave 1 before a major pullback into the halving and what i would consider my conservative target. There is another area of caution at 35.5k where we likely see a pullback to generate the full 5 waves of impulsive structure. 38.8k is in line with the 0.618 retracement levels from the ATH to the low at 15k. This is a logical area of resistance. However, we have to consider the .786 retracement theory here which suggests a move to 50k prior to the halving. I therefore consider this the extended target which is correlated on the fibs. If the top blue trendline is broken i consider this target viable.
-Red/Green Trendlines - These are signifying major trends and common support/resistance levels. As you can see the break of the green dotted line signified a shift out of the macro bearish trend and is a reason we were calling a macro bottom at this point at the 15k. The later retest creating my minor wave 2 showed this now as support and then we saw our significant break to the upside. The top solid red trendline shows a significant area of resistance at intermediate tops this is currently being challenged right now and i would be looking for a break and retest of this to confirm as newly found support
-White Trendlines - These simply show breakout on the lower timeframes and we can see that recent price action broke out after establishing a base at 25k and has retested as support which is bullish
-Stochastic Trendline - The white line simply shows a regression line that has been adhered to on stochastic which adds confluence to continuation to the upside for stochastic momentum having rebased at this trend.
**Stochastic Momentum**
As indicated and pointed out early this is a major trend which can take a while to playout. However, supported on other timeframes increases the likelihood that this is a good signal. I maintain the view that we have a 5th wave of Macro Wave 1 to complete the structure and that we have now finished a long Wave 4 consolidation. Whilst price action remains above the pivot point currently at 26115 momentum will continue to move to the upside. Note that when this gets to extreme reads i will consider that to signify we are close to an exit point. I would be looking for this to coincide with the fib and price levels indicated on the chart namely 38.8-41k or 50k. Note that it is possible it could get hit if price reaches 35.5k which would be ok and is why we need to look at other things to consider if this is a top or not. This leads me nicely onto BBWP and RSI.
**BBWP**
BBWP has put in two extreme low reads, usually a double read like this is considered a major pivot/continuation point. As you can imagine these are pretty rare on a weekly timeframe so i do not take this lightly. What i am now looking for is for the BBWP to get back above the MA with a good angle to the upside to indicate that the current momentum has volatility behind it.
**RSI**
Freshly turned up and above its MA i am now looking for this to move upwards in alignment with Stochastic and BBWP. As stated above we are yet to see a reading at extreme levels of 80+ and if you look back through the charts you will see this is historically what happens at major pivots. The fact the closes we got so far was 69.58 suggests to me that further upside is in store before we see a major pull back (30%+). A read above 80 will be a major signal to me that its time to take profits and begin exiting and securing trades.
**What does this mean about those altcoin projections you just did??**
Personally i think the XRP projection is dead in the water especially with the news outcome from the SEC case dismissal. I think accumulation of price here is a great buy there is nothing to hold this back now. 0.5 is an excellent entry if you got lower even better.
Other coins still look weak comparatively to BTC so i think a pullback from 30-31k from BTC would be the last opportunity for a low point entry on many alt coins if we are to see the weekly time frame projection play out. This is where i would consider that the projections i made might get hit very quickly with price rebounding. In relation to that i would be looking for the OTHERS.D chart to bounce hard and BTC dominance to start to turn as we see alt's gain traction.
**TL DR (Too Long Didn't Read)**
-Current projections suggest bullish break above 32k with three major targets, 35.5k-37k, 38.8k-41k, 50k
-January looks like a potential top from a timing perspective but could extend if price goes to 50k
-Potential pullback short term from 30-31k last chance to "buy the dip" on many alts in my opinion before the next major push to the upside.
-25.5k is an absolute invalidation level for me with a break of the macro bullish trend line a major warning signal
Have a great day all!!
Of course we have the global issues going on right now and those are very real risks, however, focussing on the TA you can see what price action is telling you.
I previously indicated I was seeing a line up of all the stochastic indicators from daily up to a monthly chart and that typically that indicates a statistical likelihood of a strong move in that direction, in this case bullish. I also talked about the general strength typically seen in Q4 by BTC with October and November being its most profitable months in the year. I also discussed the monthly RSI and it in the area to return to the upside and the supporting view of the weekly Gaussian channel which if broken to the upside would suggest a continuation of price action.
Regarding major breakdown and the formation of a macro 2 Elliot Wave indicating that 31.8k was our top, i think the chance for that to happen was in September and the bears did not capitalise on that or rather the bulls defended the 25k area such that we did not see that breakdown to 20k to 22k. I think the ball is now firmly in the court of the bulls and that it is now the opportunity to break the very resilient 32k level. In doing so I expect to see an acceleration of price because it would like take out the final steadfast short positions since it would be a major break. You can consider the two previous attempts as soaking up those positions, Now it is time for attempt number 3 and whilst i think there is potential resistance initially ultimately i would anticipate for this to be broken with force to signify the bull market is here. I discussed why this level was so important in the monthly update.
I maintain the view that this cycle is more akin to the 2016 bull cycle with a grinding movement into the halving then a pullback into the main macro wave 3 extension and have done since the lows formed at 15k. Obviously there are differences we don't repeat but the structure has suggested a climbing the wall of worry structure as opposed to the big acceleration we saw in 2019 followed by the covid swan dump fueled by economic decisions/stimulus at the time. There is the left tailside risk of recession in the new year and that is always something to keep in the back of our minds but the indications for this have not arisen just yet.
That's the background out the way, now what does the chart indicate? :D
**Trend Lines**
Lots of lines here so here's what they mean:
-Macro Bullish Trend - The blue trendlines indicate the current macro bullish trend that has been holding since January. Note that we came close to this area on the retest of 25k arguably a retest. There is a similar topside trendline which could potentially indicate a resistance area to the upside. Using fib projections it suggests we might meet this areas around the 38.8k - 41k area sometime in January 2024. That could be a potential top of Macro Wave 1 before a major pullback into the halving and what i would consider my conservative target. There is another area of caution at 35.5k where we likely see a pullback to generate the full 5 waves of impulsive structure. 38.8k is in line with the 0.618 retracement levels from the ATH to the low at 15k. This is a logical area of resistance. However, we have to consider the .786 retracement theory here which suggests a move to 50k prior to the halving. I therefore consider this the extended target which is correlated on the fibs. If the top blue trendline is broken i consider this target viable.
-Red/Green Trendlines - These are signifying major trends and common support/resistance levels. As you can see the break of the green dotted line signified a shift out of the macro bearish trend and is a reason we were calling a macro bottom at this point at the 15k. The later retest creating my minor wave 2 showed this now as support and then we saw our significant break to the upside. The top solid red trendline shows a significant area of resistance at intermediate tops this is currently being challenged right now and i would be looking for a break and retest of this to confirm as newly found support
-White Trendlines - These simply show breakout on the lower timeframes and we can see that recent price action broke out after establishing a base at 25k and has retested as support which is bullish
-Stochastic Trendline - The white line simply shows a regression line that has been adhered to on stochastic which adds confluence to continuation to the upside for stochastic momentum having rebased at this trend.
**Stochastic Momentum**
As indicated and pointed out early this is a major trend which can take a while to playout. However, supported on other timeframes increases the likelihood that this is a good signal. I maintain the view that we have a 5th wave of Macro Wave 1 to complete the structure and that we have now finished a long Wave 4 consolidation. Whilst price action remains above the pivot point currently at 26115 momentum will continue to move to the upside. Note that when this gets to extreme reads i will consider that to signify we are close to an exit point. I would be looking for this to coincide with the fib and price levels indicated on the chart namely 38.8-41k or 50k. Note that it is possible it could get hit if price reaches 35.5k which would be ok and is why we need to look at other things to consider if this is a top or not. This leads me nicely onto BBWP and RSI.
**BBWP**
BBWP has put in two extreme low reads, usually a double read like this is considered a major pivot/continuation point. As you can imagine these are pretty rare on a weekly timeframe so i do not take this lightly. What i am now looking for is for the BBWP to get back above the MA with a good angle to the upside to indicate that the current momentum has volatility behind it.
**RSI**
Freshly turned up and above its MA i am now looking for this to move upwards in alignment with Stochastic and BBWP. As stated above we are yet to see a reading at extreme levels of 80+ and if you look back through the charts you will see this is historically what happens at major pivots. The fact the closes we got so far was 69.58 suggests to me that further upside is in store before we see a major pull back (30%+). A read above 80 will be a major signal to me that its time to take profits and begin exiting and securing trades.
**What does this mean about those altcoin projections you just did??**
Personally i think the XRP projection is dead in the water especially with the news outcome from the SEC case dismissal. I think accumulation of price here is a great buy there is nothing to hold this back now. 0.5 is an excellent entry if you got lower even better.
Other coins still look weak comparatively to BTC so i think a pullback from 30-31k from BTC would be the last opportunity for a low point entry on many alt coins if we are to see the weekly time frame projection play out. This is where i would consider that the projections i made might get hit very quickly with price rebounding. In relation to that i would be looking for the OTHERS.D chart to bounce hard and BTC dominance to start to turn as we see alt's gain traction.
**TL DR (Too Long Didn't Read)**
-Current projections suggest bullish break above 32k with three major targets, 35.5k-37k, 38.8k-41k, 50k
-January looks like a potential top from a timing perspective but could extend if price goes to 50k
-Potential pullback short term from 30-31k last chance to "buy the dip" on many alts in my opinion before the next major push to the upside.
-25.5k is an absolute invalidation level for me with a break of the macro bullish trend line a major warning signal
Have a great day all!!
Further targets remain to the upside as discussed if price action is able to hold the major resistance break and convert it to support
-Current projections suggest bullish break above 32k with three major targets, 35.5k-37k (Now Hit), 38.8k-41k, 50k