BTCUSD: Miner Capitulation Is Here... Back Down To $3,800?

The chart speaks for itself. The extrapoled price comes from the "2018 miner capitulation" that caused the price to drop 50%. Will we go back to $3,800? Unlikely, but clearly this is possible if the capitulation is as aggressive as 2018. Notably the VPVR is supporting the price target of $3,800, as is the extrapolation, with forecasted price for the block halving in May 2020 above $6K followed by another swift recovery and subsequent bull-run.

This isn't the first theory regarding price forming a higher low double bottom instead of holding the $5-6K area. As published last year, the 50 & 200 Day death cross also resulted in a 50% drop in price in 2014 and 2018, implying a 50% probability of such an outcome (using 4 sets of available data).

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Break even stop loss now in play, too easy.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Got stopped out for break-even.

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Currently back to capitulating:

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My guesstimate is a 15% chance we bottom at $3,600, 90% chance we won't break below it.
Reference: twitter.com/DragonOn.../1206893152336011265

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Capitulation is over? I am not 100% sure on the conditions for the buy signal (blue dot), but the sold green dot indicating the bullish MA crossover is very close to this. Will update when it occurs. Here would be the equivalent "point in hash rate" to January 2019 price buy signal (blue dot) based on the Hash Ribbons indicator: