BTC - Moon Cycle TA (Financial Astrology Overview & Prediction)
It was covered before, but if you backtest Bitcoin's 2021 correlation to the moon cycle, you find an approximately 80% success rate if you laddered long entries during the week of a full moon, or laddered shorts over the week of a new moon. Basically the moon cycle is more accurate than almost everyone reading this.
Background: astrology has an interesting relationship with crypto and other speculative markets. Many traders don't realize that one of the most famous traders in history, W.D. Gann, was a major proponent of financial astrology, and wrote many volumes on the subject. It also turns out that financial astrology is much more complex than you realize, to include:
So what does the current pattern say about Bitcoin? Well admittedly I am a complete amateur at financial astrology. There are qualified financial astrologist (though I suspect extremely few are well studied). So this chart is only looking at the correlation between Bitcoin price action and the moon phases, specifically the full moon and new moon. As I stated above, if you laddered longs during the weeks with full moons, you would have around an 80% success rate entering near the local bottom in the pattern.
Note: I never rely on only a single data point or indicator, so I'm also referencing on-chain data (Bitcoin netflows and exchange supply), as well as a basic fibonacci retracement (fibonacci is another trading science that works in mysterious ways). I want to find confluence here, where on-chain data appears neutral to bullish, allowing the moon's influence to further rally the bulls for a proper breakout.
Prediction: on-chain data currently appears neutral (with a weak bullish bias) to overwhelmingly bullish with clear signs of continued accumulation, although a small uptick in supply means we are shaking some profit-taking/paper hands from the market.
Given the full moon presented on 19 November, within less than a week we should see a strong move to the upside as the full moon weakens bear's resolve and rallies bulls. Of course we want to validate this along the way with continued bullish on-chain data.
Background: astrology has an interesting relationship with crypto and other speculative markets. Many traders don't realize that one of the most famous traders in history, W.D. Gann, was a major proponent of financial astrology, and wrote many volumes on the subject. It also turns out that financial astrology is much more complex than you realize, to include:
- measuring positions of planets through the day
- the phase of the moon, the zodiacs
- the positions of planets relative to each other
- the effect sometimes varies per market (for example, stocks affected differently than crypto)
- ..and much more!
So what does the current pattern say about Bitcoin? Well admittedly I am a complete amateur at financial astrology. There are qualified financial astrologist (though I suspect extremely few are well studied). So this chart is only looking at the correlation between Bitcoin price action and the moon phases, specifically the full moon and new moon. As I stated above, if you laddered longs during the weeks with full moons, you would have around an 80% success rate entering near the local bottom in the pattern.
Note: I never rely on only a single data point or indicator, so I'm also referencing on-chain data (Bitcoin netflows and exchange supply), as well as a basic fibonacci retracement (fibonacci is another trading science that works in mysterious ways). I want to find confluence here, where on-chain data appears neutral to bullish, allowing the moon's influence to further rally the bulls for a proper breakout.
Prediction: on-chain data currently appears neutral (with a weak bullish bias) to overwhelmingly bullish with clear signs of continued accumulation, although a small uptick in supply means we are shaking some profit-taking/paper hands from the market.
Given the full moon presented on 19 November, within less than a week we should see a strong move to the upside as the full moon weakens bear's resolve and rallies bulls. Of course we want to validate this along the way with continued bullish on-chain data.