Some (slight) bearish divergence showed up today on the 4 hour chart (red lines). This then looks confirmed with a bear flag (blue dashed lines) inside a bear flag (purple dashed lines). Hence, things are not trending well in the short term. The daily chart also looks to have accelerated a little too quickly and is starting to run out of momentum as well.
Then there is a very long term trend line of which we just hit the top of that goes all the way back to the previous highs (yellow line).
Hence, I think there is still a chance for a slight extension (possibly back up near 57-58K) within the day to form a wedge (with the blue line up and/or purple lines as support), but for the most part, things look like they can easily head down in the short term.
As to "how much down" I think there are quite a few options and it is not necessarily a doom and gloom situation. The purple line for support in the purple channel is option 1 (which could easily result in ascending the purple channel upward), but I think the stronger support would be the green trend line at the original Fibonacci support around 51K over the next few days.
If that occurs, I think 51K is a key price to watch, since if it significantly buckles, we are headed back to 47K. If 47K doesn't hold, there are potentials all the way back to 44K over days, including an unlikely but possible scenario all the way to 40K if there were a flash crash.
The most likely situation I will be watching is if there is an overextension back up, with lower RSI, then I think 54K and then 51K would be good numbers to keep an eye on with a potential wedge over the next week.
All the above being said, I would not say that we are in for doom and gloom with news like the U.S. stimulus passing and so much news about people wanting to invest in stocks. Hence, I figure once money starts arriving in people's bank accounts, BTC will look like an investment for many causing some quick recoveries and new highs.
NOTE: This is BTC, so it is easily possible to continue up despite a negative trend and/or do a quick trend down, build up momentum, then shoot up, particularly if the price beats the all-time high.
I'm also curious if any others have anything or can see anything I am missing. If so, please leave a comment!
Then there is a very long term trend line of which we just hit the top of that goes all the way back to the previous highs (yellow line).
Hence, I think there is still a chance for a slight extension (possibly back up near 57-58K) within the day to form a wedge (with the blue line up and/or purple lines as support), but for the most part, things look like they can easily head down in the short term.
As to "how much down" I think there are quite a few options and it is not necessarily a doom and gloom situation. The purple line for support in the purple channel is option 1 (which could easily result in ascending the purple channel upward), but I think the stronger support would be the green trend line at the original Fibonacci support around 51K over the next few days.
If that occurs, I think 51K is a key price to watch, since if it significantly buckles, we are headed back to 47K. If 47K doesn't hold, there are potentials all the way back to 44K over days, including an unlikely but possible scenario all the way to 40K if there were a flash crash.
The most likely situation I will be watching is if there is an overextension back up, with lower RSI, then I think 54K and then 51K would be good numbers to keep an eye on with a potential wedge over the next week.
All the above being said, I would not say that we are in for doom and gloom with news like the U.S. stimulus passing and so much news about people wanting to invest in stocks. Hence, I figure once money starts arriving in people's bank accounts, BTC will look like an investment for many causing some quick recoveries and new highs.
NOTE: This is BTC, so it is easily possible to continue up despite a negative trend and/or do a quick trend down, build up momentum, then shoot up, particularly if the price beats the all-time high.
I'm also curious if any others have anything or can see anything I am missing. If so, please leave a comment!