Hope everyone has had a great start to their week. Here's my take on what is happening with Bitcoin.
It's obvious that the parabola that began 3 months ago has been broken, and we are in a new bear market. If it wasn't, the rally from 10k would have been sustained and we would have been past 11k by now. The bears are out in full force.
As such, the red channel to the right of the peak is the current downward channel we are in. Since the bubble happened quickly, I expect the bear market to end quickly as well. The thick green line represents the long tern trend line beginning at the start of April, when a large accumulation occurred and when I believe the last bear market ended. It is connected by another low with strong volume about a month after that.
Thus, I expect for us to touch that low again in a couple weeks, I don't think my arrow will work out perfectly. I'm thinking 8k will be the absolute low if we expect the bull market to continue. If it breaks below that, we will see it go lower. If you notice (I suck at drawing these, I will get better I promise), there is a horizontal black line around the 7800k mark that fits multiple support/resistance lines strongly and with high volume. I also noticed that overall volume in the parabola decreased once we breached 8k or so, telling me that was irrational buying and thus not real. It is no coincidence that the same volume came back (in the form of selling) once we hit the peak.
If we do bounce from the trend line, I expect another parabola to begin forming via accumulation, and this whole process will repeat itself once more. Be careful with trading the bear market channel, it's even more irrational than the uptrend of the bubble. Panic is a helluva drug.
Good luck out there!
It's obvious that the parabola that began 3 months ago has been broken, and we are in a new bear market. If it wasn't, the rally from 10k would have been sustained and we would have been past 11k by now. The bears are out in full force.
As such, the red channel to the right of the peak is the current downward channel we are in. Since the bubble happened quickly, I expect the bear market to end quickly as well. The thick green line represents the long tern trend line beginning at the start of April, when a large accumulation occurred and when I believe the last bear market ended. It is connected by another low with strong volume about a month after that.
Thus, I expect for us to touch that low again in a couple weeks, I don't think my arrow will work out perfectly. I'm thinking 8k will be the absolute low if we expect the bull market to continue. If it breaks below that, we will see it go lower. If you notice (I suck at drawing these, I will get better I promise), there is a horizontal black line around the 7800k mark that fits multiple support/resistance lines strongly and with high volume. I also noticed that overall volume in the parabola decreased once we breached 8k or so, telling me that was irrational buying and thus not real. It is no coincidence that the same volume came back (in the form of selling) once we hit the peak.
If we do bounce from the trend line, I expect another parabola to begin forming via accumulation, and this whole process will repeat itself once more. Be careful with trading the bear market channel, it's even more irrational than the uptrend of the bubble. Panic is a helluva drug.
Good luck out there!