After breaking down below $25.3k on June 13, Bitcoin found a new low at $17,567, well below the 2017 all-time-high of $19,697.
Signs of a Reversal
In doing so, a pronounced price divergence appeared in the 4-hr chart, signalling a bullish reversal could be coming, and this was corroborated with the bullish engulfing bar at the low.
Elliott Waves
From that point, BTC has carved out a 5-wave impulse up to $21.7k on Jun21, a 3-wave correction back to $19.7k (confirming the 2017 high as support) and tentatively continued to climb up to $21.8k on the current bar.
Moving Averages
In doing so, we see that the 20MA has crossed bullish over the 50MA and the 12MA has crossed above both of these two. We can also observe that both the 12MA and 20MA are offering support to the price, propelling price higher, while the 50MA turned upward from its prior declining attitude.
Wyckoff Phase C
As laid out previously, the case for a Wyckoff Spring event being completed is compelling, especially when we observe the change in character of the price action as identified above.
Investor Sentiment
The Fear & Greed index is still in the signaling Extreme Fear, but has climbed up to 14 over the past week from a nerve-wracking low of 6 on June 18 and 19. In the past few days I have witnessed multiple polls from prominent “Crypto Influencers” that have confirmed a majority expectation of lower-lows to come. So contrary to the above indicators of a change in trend, the majority of investors and speculators seem to be biased in favour of the bear case, with expectations of $15k to $12k being prominent. It is important to assess what the predominate bias is, not because it is correct, but because the sentiments of the masses are always wrong at market tops and bottoms.
Conclusion
It appears that on all of the above measures, one can feel relatively confident that the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market has been seen and that the recovery will become more convincing to more people as prices rise.
What do you think? Have we seen a change in trend, or are we about to take another dive to find a new low?
Signs of a Reversal
In doing so, a pronounced price divergence appeared in the 4-hr chart, signalling a bullish reversal could be coming, and this was corroborated with the bullish engulfing bar at the low.
Elliott Waves
From that point, BTC has carved out a 5-wave impulse up to $21.7k on Jun21, a 3-wave correction back to $19.7k (confirming the 2017 high as support) and tentatively continued to climb up to $21.8k on the current bar.
Moving Averages
In doing so, we see that the 20MA has crossed bullish over the 50MA and the 12MA has crossed above both of these two. We can also observe that both the 12MA and 20MA are offering support to the price, propelling price higher, while the 50MA turned upward from its prior declining attitude.
Wyckoff Phase C
As laid out previously, the case for a Wyckoff Spring event being completed is compelling, especially when we observe the change in character of the price action as identified above.
Investor Sentiment
The Fear & Greed index is still in the signaling Extreme Fear, but has climbed up to 14 over the past week from a nerve-wracking low of 6 on June 18 and 19. In the past few days I have witnessed multiple polls from prominent “Crypto Influencers” that have confirmed a majority expectation of lower-lows to come. So contrary to the above indicators of a change in trend, the majority of investors and speculators seem to be biased in favour of the bear case, with expectations of $15k to $12k being prominent. It is important to assess what the predominate bias is, not because it is correct, but because the sentiments of the masses are always wrong at market tops and bottoms.
Conclusion
It appears that on all of the above measures, one can feel relatively confident that the bottom of the Bitcoin bear market has been seen and that the recovery will become more convincing to more people as prices rise.
What do you think? Have we seen a change in trend, or are we about to take another dive to find a new low?
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What's more, the weekly RSI has fallen to its lowest ever level of any previous bear market...