BTCUSD - It's Intermediate & Long Term Price Expectation

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
3128 19 23
Just over a week ago I posted a weekly chart at this link
BTCUSD - Intermediate term Bearish

It was to suggest that we are in a correction phase namely wave (iv). That was not to say short immediately. However, possible 850-950 zone to see if expected short materialise. There were 2 short attempts I called out live both resulted in scratch trade. Is that demonstrating that I am wrong? Well I depends on your view and time frame for your trading, ie 5, 15, 60 min charts etc.

So whilst both of those did not have follow through, no real harm suffered. The main short trade it becoming very interesting from my point of view. But accept that we may head higher first before that short will develop, but worth tracking. During this time we could top around 1150 - 1205 or even make a new high. In the case of retest we could have massive double top and if we make new high it might turn out to be a false break and the expected short will develop and the decline will be in 5 waves, as we see Flat Correction in the form of 3-3-5 as details in the chart.

This chart is not to replace the earlier chart but to provide update incorporating subsequent price action.

That is my interpretation and if you wish to explore further here is a ling to the recording of live session explaining it.
Excuse the quality of recording due to technical issues but should provide background details. http://youtu.be/Pw_SLXb893w
Ideal schematic sketch of 3-3-5 Flat Correction
What I especially appreciate about your published ideas is that you put sound support, reasoning, and analysis behind them. There are far too many people who publish on here with BTC/LTC projections of "price will go here because I drew this line" without any support for their ideas. Please keep them coming, Dan. They're much appreciated.
DanV MOD sn0wcrash
Thank you very much for your appreciation. It makes publishing these ideas real delight.
i'm new to technical analysis, and I'm learning a lot. Btw, what would be your most recommended textbook/resource for a thorough study? thanks
That is great, It depends on what technical analysis approach you wish to follow as it is vast. But if you mean Elliott Waves then may be this site will help. http://www.elliottwave.com/dvdworkbooks/

Hope you enjoy it.

Thanks for your comments.
The only problem with elliot is that it has infinite interpretations... Anytime the price doesn't follow the model, it's always just.. 'the wrong interpretation'. Saying this, I am a fan of Elliot & fractal reality and such.
Thing is never just rely on EW, but have some backup analysis. That said, even if it is not easy on many occasions, when correct interpretation, actually flag up what development you should be expecting. So a great tool. Case in point if the above published chart. If it should play out even with some variation, it offers safe potential big short and then potential profitable long and if that is what you wish to trade then we have to wait for that, ignore all in between. Appreciate your comment.
great, thanks! I meant more of a general overview of the main approaches, also with a glimpse of fundamental analysis. Your link will get me more than started tho :) Session and reply very much appreaciated!
Thank you for all the bear views so far ;)
you are not trying to spice-up future inevitable retracements along the way with fear to turn them into panic selling, are you?! ;)
i agree with @flibbr about infinite interpretations but after crossing 1250 we are still in bear market?!
the price levels you have said so far 600-700-780-800-840-888-900-950-1000 and now 1150 and 1205 and any new high comes after?! Okkay.
you were saying if price makes it to 950 you will call it the end of bear market, weren't you?!
for those wondering about current bounce, please take a look at this
Weekly Uptrend Bouncing Up

Also see the weekly/3D charts in bitcoinwisdom with oscillators like stochRSI
DanV MOD HosseinMansouri
Dear Friends, I can see you have excellent eye for details. May be your chart will play out just as you expect, and I wish it does for you. However, your interpretation of my analysis is clearly not good from your view point. So perhaps you can dismiss it is rubbish or try to see the logic of what I am trying to say. Any way thanks for your comments. Happy trading
Thank you Dear Dan for the compliment, hearing it from you that's an honor, I Like to see different points of views and learn from them but insisting on getting to certain price after we had a significant double bottom at that price is so strange!
This Move has broken every resistance along the way to up here despite the weakness at the beginning which was acceptable because of last month of the year, it has gained power by now. you know my logic says i have to put myself in shoes of those who bought at very top 1250, those who have tolerated the fall and are seeing this recovery are going to break even at 1250?! i doubt that, and looking more closely in the candles and volumes tells us they are holding and waiting for much higher prices.
i don't mean any disrespect and no offence but we EW should not be used alone, and we have to pay more attention to what the majority see and use, and based on my experience we should not be searching for hidden orders, we just have to follow the crowd, that is all, and we are the ones who should thank you for sharing your thoughts even if it appears to be illogical, which i completely understand the feeling because i've experienced it two times so far, first in recovery from 65$ six months ago and now this recovery from 450$.
1200 wasn't a magic resistance point, it just happened to be the point at which the China news hit. I always find it strange when people include this dip in their analysis as if it was just some cyclic downturn - and thus predicts future movements.
By now not even bad China news could drop BTC under 500 again.
DanV MOD ThomasVeil
Fair enough. Thanks for taking the time to consider the details. Disregard it totally. I don't have the deeper and up to date knowledge on that king of development or lack of it. I just do the chart. So Yeh, could be completely wrong.
shadyz ThomasVeil
It can't?
My point was that anything that would depress the price so much so major would have to be bigger than the China shock. That was not cyclic - and not predictable by chart patterns. Do you disagree on that?

Since BTC has constant strong up-pressure, the 500 price point would be even harder to reach now.
If China decides to decapitate everyone who uses BTC, then yes it could fall below 500. Again, I just don't get how that would be predicted by former charts.
thanks for analysis dan. isn't your analysis invalid now due to the fact that wave iv down today has crossed into wave ii. clearly this is not allowed in impulsive EW uptrends? Please comment
DanV MOD SamThompson
Yes, in this specific point. though my overall view and outline I have shown that this is not a new inclusive leg rather part of correction which will fail ans down trend will resume is still valid. I have shown this in my latest chart just published. Hope it helps. Thanks for your comment and interest.
UPDATE:- After forming a top around 1090 and drop, at the time it appeared as though the Wave B of "A" & "B" Flat was likely complete, and as such we were expecting clear 5 wave decline to complete Wave "C" of this 3-3-5 Correction with downside target of at least 450.

However, the downside momentum seems to be running out in that case we could move up to 1100-1200 zone and could still be in Wave "B" which is not yet finished..

In this case, I see a possible Pattern that might resemble Like Mother & Baby or and Echo wave of the larger earlier wave, before the expected 5 wave decline would occur on completion.

This might then also meet the 90% retracement rule of wave "A" required for typical flat.

The main 3-3-5 Correction of the 1250 high still remains as most likely outcome of this with wave "C" downside target of 450.

Links to Youtube videos explaining the concept of 3-3-5 are



Will update this as and when appropriate.

For those of you who have been asking for link to my wallet for donation, here it is

Nice chart!
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