BTCUSD - It's Intermediate & Long Term Price Expectation

MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
3143 19 24
Just over a week ago I posted a weekly chart at this link

It was to suggest that we are in a correction phase namely wave (iv). That was not to say short immediately. However, possible 850-950 zone to see if expected short materialise. There were 2 short attempts I called out live both resulted in scratch trade. Is that demonstrating that I am wrong? Well I depends on your view and time frame for your trading, ie 5, 15, 60 min charts etc.

So whilst both of those did not have follow through, no real harm suffered. The main short trade it becoming very interesting from my point of view. But accept that we may head higher first before that short will develop, but worth tracking. During this time we could top around 1150 - 1205 or even make a new high. In the case of retest we could have massive double top and if we make new high it might turn out to be a false break and the expected short will develop and the decline will be in 5 waves, as we see Flat Correction in the form of 3-3-5 as details in the chart.

This chart is not to replace the earlier chart but to provide update incorporating subsequent price action.

That is my interpretation and if you wish to explore further here is a ling to the recording of live session explaining it.
Excuse the quality of recording due to technical issues but should provide background details. http://youtu.be/Pw_SLXb893w
Nice chart!
UPDATE:- After forming a top around 1090 and drop, at the time it appeared as though the Wave B of "A" & "B" Flat was likely complete, and as such we were expecting clear 5 wave decline to complete Wave "C" of this 3-3-5 Correction with downside target of at least 450.

However, the downside momentum seems to be running out in that case we could move up to 1100-1200 zone and could still be in Wave "B" which is not yet finished..

In this case, I see a possible Pattern that might resemble Like Mother & Baby or and Echo wave of the larger earlier wave, before the expected 5 wave decline would occur on completion.

This might then also meet the 90% retracement rule of wave "A" required for typical flat.

The main 3-3-5 Correction of the 1250 high still remains as most likely outcome of this with wave "C" downside target of 450.

Links to Youtube videos explaining the concept of 3-3-5 are



Will update this as and when appropriate.

For those of you who have been asking for link to my wallet for donation, here it is

thanks for analysis dan. isn't your analysis invalid now due to the fact that wave iv down today has crossed into wave ii. clearly this is not allowed in impulsive EW uptrends? Please comment
DanV SamThompson
Yes, in this specific point. though my overall view and outline I have shown that this is not a new inclusive leg rather part of correction which will fail ans down trend will resume is still valid. I have shown this in my latest chart just published. Hope it helps. Thanks for your comment and interest.
1200 wasn't a magic resistance point, it just happened to be the point at which the China news hit. I always find it strange when people include this dip in their analysis as if it was just some cyclic downturn - and thus predicts future movements.
By now not even bad China news could drop BTC under 500 again.
DanV ThomasVeil
Fair enough. Thanks for taking the time to consider the details. Disregard it totally. I don't have the deeper and up to date knowledge on that king of development or lack of it. I just do the chart. So Yeh, could be completely wrong.
shadyz ThomasVeil
It can't?
My point was that anything that would depress the price so much so major would have to be bigger than the China shock. That was not cyclic - and not predictable by chart patterns. Do you disagree on that?

Since BTC has constant strong up-pressure, the 500 price point would be even harder to reach now.
If China decides to decapitate everyone who uses BTC, then yes it could fall below 500. Again, I just don't get how that would be predicted by former charts.
Thank you for all the bear views so far ;)
you are not trying to spice-up future inevitable retracements along the way with fear to turn them into panic selling, are you?! ;)
i agree with @flibbr about infinite interpretations but after crossing 1250 we are still in bear market?!
the price levels you have said so far 600-700-780-800-840-888-900-950-1000 and now 1150 and 1205 and any new high comes after?! Okkay.
you were saying if price makes it to 950 you will call it the end of bear market, weren't you?!
for those wondering about current bounce, please take a look at this
Also see the weekly/3D charts in bitcoinwisdom with oscillators like stochRSI
DanV HosseinMansouri
Dear Friends, I can see you have excellent eye for details. May be your chart will play out just as you expect, and I wish it does for you. However, your interpretation of my analysis is clearly not good from your view point. So perhaps you can dismiss it is rubbish or try to see the logic of what I am trying to say. Any way thanks for your comments. Happy trading
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