Here is my try for a large time scaled EW and finding the end of 2014 bear market.
Feel free to criticize it, even more welcomed if you got some experience in EW.
A pretty obvious pattern is the corrective triangle, correcting the Dec. 2013 burst.
In classical I used to point the inception of it around $130 but interesting fibonacci retracements appear if we think the progression from $4 to $1165 as a wave 3 (impulsive) fibonacci retracements.
Notably, the 23.6 level points to $278, the (probable) bottom of this correction.
The C wave (Jan. 2014 - Jan 2015, if I'm right) is a diagonal triangle in type 1. As EW suggests :
"When diagonal triangles occur in the fifth or C wave position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that described"
Matching pretty well IMO : http://www.prognosis.nl/support/faq/prin...
I've drawn 2 supports (in blue) : first is the biggest, which includes all fluctuations.
The second one (dotted blue) is in my opinion more fitting - it considers closing prices so spikes are excluded.
We can see the last localized lows aligned 6Oct, 3Nov, 2Dec and I expect 3-6 Jan 2015 to be the last retest of it, just above $300.
If the dotted blue was going to break a (maybe more correct?) C target would be either $278 or ultimately $257 which was the previous ATH and the wave 3 showed as III.
Going out of the main triangle including would be a wave 5, pink (V) and I did put a target on the 1.6 fib level, $1883.
Maybe it's pretty conservative if we think of the absolute 4->1165 values being wave 3 ? I tried to practice EW and trend analysis here but I would say media attention and fundamentals could be a huge push in 2015 if we broke the Dec 2013 all time high.
About your real question "how long Bitcoin will remain a commodity rather than a currency" I would argue Bitcoin is a protocol, allowing decentralized trustless timestamped transactions, with a known (max) issuance. So yeah, it's commonly viewed as a commodity or a currency but it's only the first app for the blockchain technology. IMO use cases (better, cheaper or new ones) are the "real value" of Bitcoin ; prices will follow this.
I fail to see lower than 250 because of alltime trendline, old ATH, lots of big players accumulating OTC and how much money are now in stakes with VC's in the place.
Pretty sure some whales will try anyway :D