Hen0xyd

End of 2014 bear market prediction - using Elliott Waves

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I've became interested in Elliott Waves lately and I tried many counts.
Here is my try for a large time scaled EW and finding the end of 2014 bear market.
Feel free to criticize it, even more welcomed if you got some experience in EW.

A pretty obvious pattern is the corrective triangle, correcting the Dec. 2013 burst.
In classical technical analysis I used to point the inception of it around $130 but interesting fibonacci retracements appear if we think the progression from $4 to $1165 as a wave 3 (impulsive) fibonacci retracements.
Notably, the 23.6 level points to $278, the (probable) bottom of this ABC correction.

The C wave (Jan. 2014 - Jan 2015, if I'm right) is a diagonal triangle in type 1. As EW suggests :
"When diagonal triangles occur in the fifth or C wave position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described"
Matching pretty well IMO : http://www.prognosis.nl/support/faq/prin...

I've drawn 2 supports (in blue) : first is the biggest, which includes all fluctuations.
The second one (dotted blue) is in my opinion more fitting - it considers closing prices so spikes are excluded.
We can see the last localized lows aligned 6Oct, 3Nov, 2Dec and I expect 3-6 Jan 2015 to be the last retest of it, just above $300.
If the dotted blue was going to break a (maybe more correct?) C target would be either $278 or ultimately $257 which was the previous ATH and the wave 3 showed as III.

Going out of the main triangle including ABC would be a wave 5, pink (V) and I did put a target on the 1.6 fib level, $1883.
Maybe it's pretty conservative if we think of the absolute 4->1165 values being wave 3 ? I tried to practice EW and trend analysis here but I would say media attention and fundamentals could be a huge push in 2015 if we broke the Dec 2013 all time high.