Hen0xyd
Long

End of 2014 bear market prediction - using Elliott Waves

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
I've became interested in Elliott Waves lately and I tried many counts.
Here is my try for a large time scaled EW and finding the end of 2014 bear market.
Feel free to criticize it, even more welcomed if you got some experience in EW.

A pretty obvious pattern is the corrective triangle, correcting the Dec             . 2013 burst.
In classical technical analysis I used to point the inception of it around $130 but interesting fibonacci retracements appear if we think the progression from $4 to $1165 as a wave 3 (impulsive) fibonacci retracements.
Notably, the 23.6 level points to $278, the (probable) bottom of this ABC correction.

The C wave (Jan. 2014 - Jan 2015, if I'm right) is a diagonal triangle in type 1. As EW suggests :
"When diagonal triangles occur in the fifth or C wave position, they take the 3-3-3-3-3 shape that Elliott described"
Matching pretty well IMO             : http://www.prognosis.nl/support/faq/principle/Image71.gif

I've drawn 2 supports (in blue) : first is the biggest, which includes all fluctuations.
The second one (dotted blue) is in my opinion more fitting - it considers closing prices so spikes are excluded.
We can see the last localized lows aligned 6Oct, 3Nov, 2Dec and I expect 3-6 Jan 2015 to be the last retest of it, just above $300.
If the dotted blue was going to break a (maybe more correct?) C target would be either $278 or ultimately $257 which was the previous ATH             and the wave 3 showed as III             .

Going out of the main triangle including ABC would be a wave 5, pink (V) and I did put a target on the 1.6 fib level, $1883.
Maybe it's pretty conservative if we think of the absolute 4->1165 values being wave 3 ? I tried to practice EW and trend analysis here but I would say media attention and fundamentals could be a huge push in 2015 if we broke the Dec             2013 all time high.


Here is a zoomed version with some more fractals :
snapshot
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The similarity with the gold price is fascinating. I really wonder whether we'll have a second rally. I guess the real question is how long Bitcoin will remain a commodity rather than a currency...
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Nelty Nelty
This is the gold price chart : http://goldsilverworldscom.c.presscdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/gold-price-monthly-1968-2014.jpg
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Hen0xyd Nelty
Indeed, the correlation is quite fascinating.
About your real question "how long Bitcoin will remain a commodity rather than a currency" I would argue Bitcoin is a protocol, allowing decentralized trustless timestamped transactions, with a known (max) issuance. So yeah, it's commonly viewed as a commodity or a currency but it's only the first app for the blockchain technology. IMO use cases (better, cheaper or new ones) are the "real value" of Bitcoin ; prices will follow this.
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Or the end of Bitcoin? :-)
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The wave looks perfect. However, the only problem is that everybody has the same count and all calls for a bottom here... It's not possible that the majority people get the bottom right.
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wonky_tonky MiaoJiang30
whale's probably going to push it hard down :) for panic and their accumulation below 250 ish
+3 Reply
Hen0xyd wonky_tonky
I think dotted-blue support will hold on daily closing price, around $300, but yes $275 or less may occur.
I fail to see lower than 250 because of alltime trendline, old ATH, lots of big players accumulating OTC and how much money are now in stakes with VC's in the place.
Pretty sure some whales will try anyway :D
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Hen0xyd MiaoJiang30
You may be right MiaoJiang - but I tried various countings but they didn't fit quite right. For instance I thought and tried a counting with October '24 $275 being the end of ABC correction. I'm new to EW so maybe I miss some advanced patterns and this could imply wrong conclusions. We'll have big answers in just a few months :)
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