Today Bitcoin's 100 day MA is crossing over the 200 day MA. In the previous two cycles this event has led to huge gains.
This chart I am presenting provides a few ideas:
1. The bottom is most likely in.
2. The 0.786 retracement level will most likely be a sale. The previous two cycles, the market fell 70% & 40%, respectively, after breaching the 0.786 level on a rally.
3. The 0.118 level will most likely be retested at some point. In 2015 the retest low came 222 days after the bottom. After 2018 cycle bottom the retest low didn't happen until 454 days later during onset of covid. Bitcoin is currently 100 days from the low but has been consolidating in this range for 262 days which is concurrent with previous cycles.
Combining the 100/200 day MA bullish cross with market reclaiming 0.236 retracement line and market breaking 33 degree line from top (idea courtesy of davethewave), there looks to be a large rally in the works with top potentially around $50,000.
There is a chance the market revisits the $18,500 level before the rally in which case that would be a great spot to add to position.
My base case is Bitcoin rallying until sometime between April-July 2023 and then tanking until end of year to beginning of 2024. In spring of 2024 the rally kicks off again and lasts until October 2025 when the next cycle high occurs. This scenario assumes current market pricing of interest rates with a peak fed funds around September 2023 and rates gradually dropping off for next two years.
This chart I am presenting provides a few ideas:
1. The bottom is most likely in.
2. The 0.786 retracement level will most likely be a sale. The previous two cycles, the market fell 70% & 40%, respectively, after breaching the 0.786 level on a rally.
3. The 0.118 level will most likely be retested at some point. In 2015 the retest low came 222 days after the bottom. After 2018 cycle bottom the retest low didn't happen until 454 days later during onset of covid. Bitcoin is currently 100 days from the low but has been consolidating in this range for 262 days which is concurrent with previous cycles.
Combining the 100/200 day MA bullish cross with market reclaiming 0.236 retracement line and market breaking 33 degree line from top (idea courtesy of davethewave), there looks to be a large rally in the works with top potentially around $50,000.
There is a chance the market revisits the $18,500 level before the rally in which case that would be a great spot to add to position.
My base case is Bitcoin rallying until sometime between April-July 2023 and then tanking until end of year to beginning of 2024. In spring of 2024 the rally kicks off again and lasts until October 2025 when the next cycle high occurs. This scenario assumes current market pricing of interest rates with a peak fed funds around September 2023 and rates gradually dropping off for next two years.