No surprises here, right?
As you know, my bias recently changed, looking for these small drops in Bitcoin. On the daily chart, we saw BTC lose the 50 MA as support for the first time in nearly 3 months and since price was $26,000. We have now seen that blue line tested multiple times as resistance.
RSI is still middling on the daily, so I would anticipate that we eventually get to oversold - we always do. That could happen without price dropping much further, but should eventually indicate more downside.
That said, I am still seeing MIXED SIGNALS and little clarity, which means this market is avoidable for now.We have small wicks down on yesterday's candle and today. They are not to the same low, but many would define this as a potential tweezer bottom, meaning that the low could be in. Possible.
Most importantly - we need to see people stop selling their GBTC, which is the fundamental overhang. At 500-800M a day, this is serious forced selling pressure. When someone sells a share of GBTC, Grayscale has to sell BTC to balance the AUM.
As you know, my bias recently changed, looking for these small drops in Bitcoin. On the daily chart, we saw BTC lose the 50 MA as support for the first time in nearly 3 months and since price was $26,000. We have now seen that blue line tested multiple times as resistance.
RSI is still middling on the daily, so I would anticipate that we eventually get to oversold - we always do. That could happen without price dropping much further, but should eventually indicate more downside.
That said, I am still seeing MIXED SIGNALS and little clarity, which means this market is avoidable for now.We have small wicks down on yesterday's candle and today. They are not to the same low, but many would define this as a potential tweezer bottom, meaning that the low could be in. Possible.
Most importantly - we need to see people stop selling their GBTC, which is the fundamental overhang. At 500-800M a day, this is serious forced selling pressure. When someone sells a share of GBTC, Grayscale has to sell BTC to balance the AUM.
scott.melker@texaswestcapital.com