Did Bitcoin Hit Bottom Yet? It's possible we have lower to go
Hello traders!
I've got a crazy analysis for you today that is very compelling.
Before we begin, I want you to understand that this is a longer term analysis that can take months to play out.
Can I be wrong?
100% without a doubt yes.
Will I trade this exactly as I have it laid out? Of course not. I will take it day by day and level by level.
As always, manage your risk and don't trade more than you can afford to lose.
This is a 'crazy' analysis because we have the halving this year and everyone thinks that the halving will significantly increase price and this analysis is the exact opposite of that.
Before we get into the analysis, let's talk about the last two halvings and what happened.
The first halving was November 28th, 2012 and we saw price drop 30% in the months leading up to the halving.
Post halving, we saw a massive increase in value.
On the 2nd halving, it was 7/9/2016 and we saw a 27% drop before and a 27% drop after to hit the 200MA daily.
Here you can see both Halvings together.
What this means is that it's possible we see a drop prior to the halving. Both prior had 28% drops.
Now, for this analysis:
For this analysis to be wrong, I would need to see a daily close ABOVE the 200MA and $10,000 to make a higher high and invalidate the total structure.
We can still pump up to $9950 and still be on pace for this analysis if we close below the 200MA.
We're not very far away from that level, so it'll be a clear invalidation.
Onto the analysis.
First, a simple analysis shows that we recently hit the top of the trend channel on Coiinbase and rejected at the 200EMA daily.
A more complex analysis shows that there is a striking similarity between 2018 and what we are seeing now.
This is what I wanted to share with you with this analysis.
The all time high at $20,000 was a blow off top.
The recent high of $13.8k was a 61.8% retracement of the total move from $20,000 to $3,200.
SEE HERE:
Not only that, but we also can see that the weekly 20MA was also a very potent dynamic resistance level from the 2018 market.
SEE HERE:
Another aspect we can see is the former 2018 rallie highs are eerily lined up with our rally highs and the slope of the 200MA has recently turned down and we are currently below it.
SEE HERE:
For that reason, it makes sense to me that this may be a repeat from before.
We have not yet seen the sell off capitulation volume like we saw before and we have been making lower high after lower high from the $13.8k level.
It is possible that we range for the next several months forming more lower highs until we get a $6400 level break down to $5k.
As I mentioned above, we should take it level by level and trade it as we see it in the market, but I wanted to get this out there for everyone to see.
Let me know what you think below and whether or not you agree with my analysis.
If you found value, please like this chart. Thanks!
I've got a crazy analysis for you today that is very compelling.
Before we begin, I want you to understand that this is a longer term analysis that can take months to play out.
Can I be wrong?
100% without a doubt yes.
Will I trade this exactly as I have it laid out? Of course not. I will take it day by day and level by level.
As always, manage your risk and don't trade more than you can afford to lose.
This is a 'crazy' analysis because we have the halving this year and everyone thinks that the halving will significantly increase price and this analysis is the exact opposite of that.
Before we get into the analysis, let's talk about the last two halvings and what happened.
The first halving was November 28th, 2012 and we saw price drop 30% in the months leading up to the halving.
Post halving, we saw a massive increase in value.
On the 2nd halving, it was 7/9/2016 and we saw a 27% drop before and a 27% drop after to hit the 200MA daily.
Here you can see both Halvings together.
What this means is that it's possible we see a drop prior to the halving. Both prior had 28% drops.
Now, for this analysis:
For this analysis to be wrong, I would need to see a daily close ABOVE the 200MA and $10,000 to make a higher high and invalidate the total structure.
We can still pump up to $9950 and still be on pace for this analysis if we close below the 200MA.
We're not very far away from that level, so it'll be a clear invalidation.
Onto the analysis.
First, a simple analysis shows that we recently hit the top of the trend channel on Coiinbase and rejected at the 200EMA daily.
A more complex analysis shows that there is a striking similarity between 2018 and what we are seeing now.
This is what I wanted to share with you with this analysis.
The all time high at $20,000 was a blow off top.
The recent high of $13.8k was a 61.8% retracement of the total move from $20,000 to $3,200.
SEE HERE:
Not only that, but we also can see that the weekly 20MA was also a very potent dynamic resistance level from the 2018 market.
SEE HERE:
Another aspect we can see is the former 2018 rallie highs are eerily lined up with our rally highs and the slope of the 200MA has recently turned down and we are currently below it.
SEE HERE:
For that reason, it makes sense to me that this may be a repeat from before.
We have not yet seen the sell off capitulation volume like we saw before and we have been making lower high after lower high from the $13.8k level.
It is possible that we range for the next several months forming more lower highs until we get a $6400 level break down to $5k.
As I mentioned above, we should take it level by level and trade it as we see it in the market, but I wanted to get this out there for everyone to see.
Let me know what you think below and whether or not you agree with my analysis.
If you found value, please like this chart. Thanks!
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