CastAwayTrader

Bitcoin - I warned bulls to get prepared for a pullback.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In my last update on February 19 I warned bulls:
"Today, after 30% quick gain off the bottom I want you to cool down. I am still bullish on Bitcoin .
But we got wave i up of a larger wave ( c ) up. We may get now a pretty deep corrective wave ii down targeting 3,600. "


I count a-b-c move up that topped around 4,280 this night as a completed wave i up off the December 2018 bottom.
Off that top we should a corrective wave ii down shaped as a-b-c.
This current drop into 3,820 is clearly only the first leg down in wave a of ii.

Despite the fact we should get a corrective wave b up and that could get as high as the previous top over 4,000 I would encourage you not to take your chances and wait for a corrective wave b up to top and then you may try to short Bitcoin for the final leg of corrective decline in wave c of ii down. The reason is that wave b is the least reliable wave. It can get as shallow as 23.6% of the preceding drop and you will not be able to close your long.
My expectations have not changed. The ideal target for that final decline in wave c of ii is between 3,610 and 3,530. This is where I will start loading bitcoin again. Because off that low we will see a rally in wave a of iii of ( c ) up that should target 4,550 - 4,650

Comments

I'm looking at it slightly different at this stage. BTCUSD H4 Update, Z down? Checkout the idea detail's and update's for the complete picture.
Reply
@Boon2, normally in any (a)-(b)-(c) the final (c) should stretch to 123.6% - 176.4% or even 223.6% of the first leg of ( a ). Moreover, that ( c ) should have a clear five wave structure.
Therefore I count that move up off you low at ( b ) down as subwave i up of that ( c ) up
+1 Reply
Boon2 CastAwayTrader
@CastAwayTrader, Yes usually I would like to see wave C reach the 100fib or at least break above wave A but at this stage we never got that like we never got it in the 1st X up the top there after wave W. It make's it harder to trade when it doe's this as you can never be sure C is over until the low is broken but on H1 we have 5 up with bearish divergence and an impulse down and currently a bear flag forming therefore I'm very much bearish knowing full well things could become much more complex with the fact wave C never broke above wave A.
Reply
@Boon2, You have to post this shitchart everywhere bro get an effin life ffs
Reply
Boon2 seekdotglobal
@seekdotglobal, I can see why you don't put out many idea's LOL

Learn how to trad fool!
Reply
@Boon2, @seekdotglobal folks, we were supposed to discuss setups not put sh@t on each other. At the end of the day what really matters is where we made money and whether we did that in enjoyable way. Everyone has its own method. If we don't understand it that doesn't mean it doesn't work! Peace!!!
+2 Reply
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