BTC: On Verge of Transition to Phase D SOW Event 23750 to 22350
Hi Everyone! It appears we are on verge of transitioning from Phase C into Phase D with a "Sign of Weakness" (SOW) event. This SOW has a high probability of falling to $23,750 but also has a high probability of falling down to $22,350.
The most important time frame at present is the 2-Week time frame. My opinion of course. This is due to the current level of the Red Line within the Phoenix Ascending indicator.
RED TEXT BUBBLE:
We have a new 2-Week candle. NOTE the Red Line falling "down from" Yellow Level 50.
This indicates a high probability of price action falling "down from" Yellow B-Band Basis
to at least the Magenta Lower B-Band around $23,750. However, the price action can
continue falling down to the White or Aqua Lower B-Bands. The White Lower B-Band
is currently at $22,435. So, don't be surprised if we see a "wick" down to $22,435. Yes,
it can fall further down to the Aqua Lower B-Band at $20,300.
The 1-Week time frame (Top Right Corner) is on the Verge of Stage-2 Expansion Down. Why? Both the Red and Blue Lines are below White Level 30.
The most important time frame at present is the 2-Week time frame. My opinion of course. This is due to the current level of the Red Line within the Phoenix Ascending indicator.
We have a new 2-Week candle. NOTE the Red Line falling "down from" Yellow Level 50.
This indicates a high probability of price action falling "down from" Yellow B-Band Basis
to at least the Magenta Lower B-Band around $23,750. However, the price action can
continue falling down to the White or Aqua Lower B-Bands. The White Lower B-Band
is currently at $22,435. So, don't be surprised if we see a "wick" down to $22,435. Yes,
it can fall further down to the Aqua Lower B-Band at $20,300.
The 1-Week time frame (Top Right Corner) is on the Verge of Stage-2 Expansion Down. Why? Both the Red and Blue Lines are below White Level 30.
Comment:
UPDATE:
8-hour time frame:
YELLOW TEXT BUBBLE:
Red and Blue Lines in this 8-hour time frame are not close enough to
Yellow Level 50 to increase probability for price action to go up with
expansion.
8-hour time frame:
YELLOW TEXT BUBBLE:
Red and Blue Lines in this 8-hour time frame are not close enough to
Yellow Level 50 to increase probability for price action to go up with
expansion.
Comment:
UPDATE:
We are in MACRO Accumulation in my opinion. The questions are the same questions I've been mentioning the past several months: Are we in Phase D of a Descending Wedge Accumulation Schematic?
Or are we in a 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic and currently in a period of RE-Distribution during Phase B and C of this 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic:
I want to see my indicators turn around in the 2-Week time frame before even considering we have a high probability of being in Phase D of a Descending Wedge Accumulation Schematic - OR - are we in Phase C of a 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic.
This 3-Week time frame requires quite a bit more work as well before we can even consider drawing a conclusion we are in a full fledged bull market.
We are in MACRO Accumulation in my opinion. The questions are the same questions I've been mentioning the past several months: Are we in Phase D of a Descending Wedge Accumulation Schematic?
Or are we in a 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic and currently in a period of RE-Distribution during Phase B and C of this 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic:
I want to see my indicators turn around in the 2-Week time frame before even considering we have a high probability of being in Phase D of a Descending Wedge Accumulation Schematic - OR - are we in Phase C of a 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic.
This 3-Week time frame requires quite a bit more work as well before we can even consider drawing a conclusion we are in a full fledged bull market.
Comment:
UPDATE
This Blue Diagonal Trend Line is SUPER IMPORTANT!!!
BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:
This Blue Diagonal Trend Line is a MAJOR Diagonal Support/Resistance Line.
CLOSING below this Blue Diagonal Trend Line would definitely increase the
probability of us NOT being in Phase D of a Descending Wedge Accumulation
Schematic. Which would mean we were in a 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic.
This Blue Diagonal Trend Line is SUPER IMPORTANT!!!
BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:
This Blue Diagonal Trend Line is a MAJOR Diagonal Support/Resistance Line.
CLOSING below this Blue Diagonal Trend Line would definitely increase the
probability of us NOT being in Phase D of a Descending Wedge Accumulation
Schematic. Which would mean we were in a 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic.
Comment:
UPDATE:
BY THE WAY... This chart was the 5-Week time frame and NOT the 3-Week:
BY THE WAY... This chart was the 5-Week time frame and NOT the 3-Week:
Comment:
UPDATE:
1-Month Time Frame:
AQUA TEXT BUBBLES:
We "KNOW" we are highly likely to be in a SUSTAINED Bull Trend
WHEN we see "both" the Red and Blue Lines above Yellow Level 50
in this 1-Month Time Frame.
BLUE TEXT BUBBLES:
PRESENT DAY: Our Blue Line is still below Yellow Level 50; similar to what we see here in October, 2019. So, let's not draw conclusions we are in a SUSTAINED Bull Trend until we FIRST see "both" Red and Blue Lines "above" Yellow Level 50 in this 1-Month time frame.
1-Month Time Frame:
AQUA TEXT BUBBLES:
We "KNOW" we are highly likely to be in a SUSTAINED Bull Trend
WHEN we see "both" the Red and Blue Lines above Yellow Level 50
in this 1-Month Time Frame.
BLUE TEXT BUBBLES:
PRESENT DAY: Our Blue Line is still below Yellow Level 50; similar to what we see here in October, 2019. So, let's not draw conclusions we are in a SUSTAINED Bull Trend until we FIRST see "both" Red and Blue Lines "above" Yellow Level 50 in this 1-Month time frame.
Comment:
UPDATE:
Posting this chart for those curious as to where we are on our Macro Ascending Diagonal Support/Resistance Lines Chart:
Posting this chart for those curious as to where we are on our Macro Ascending Diagonal Support/Resistance Lines Chart:
Comment:
UPDATE:
BTC currently at a MAJOR "Diagonal" Support/Resistance level for the Blue ASCENDING Diagonal Trend Line in this Wyckoff 2.0 2021/2022 Distribution; along with 2023 RE-Distribution:
BTC currently at a MAJOR "Diagonal" Support/Resistance level for the Blue ASCENDING Diagonal Trend Line in this Wyckoff 2.0 2021/2022 Distribution; along with 2023 RE-Distribution:
Comment:
UPDATE:
BLUE "Ascending Diagonal Trend Line" currently holding support.
ORANGE "Descending Diagonal Trend Line" is current resistance.
BLUE "Ascending Diagonal Trend Line" currently holding support.
ORANGE "Descending Diagonal Trend Line" is current resistance.
Comment:
UPDATE:
Hi Everyone! I know I've been away a bit. I've been prepping to move out of my house; then make a few repairs before putting it up for sale.
If you are familiar with my Phoenix Ascending indicator and rules; you would have seen a high probability of expansion "up" in the 12-hour, 24-hour and 2-Day time frames. WHY? The Red "and" Blue Lines were "both" above level 50 in all of those time frames; along with the Green Line and White Energy.
You would have also known once the Red Line crosses above level 50; upward pressure is triggered. And that upward pressure lasts for how long? Until the White Energy comes back to level 50.
Well, the Red Line is above Yellow Level 50 in the 4-Day time frame; suggesting upward pressure can continue until the white energy comes back down to level 50.
4-Day with Bad Ass B-Bands:
AQUA TEXT BUBBLE:
$30,310 is in between the White and Aqua UPPER B-Bands.
RED TEXT BUBBLE:
Red Line above Yellow Level 50; triggering upward pressure; with potential
to last until the White Energy returns back down to level 50.
BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:
The Blue Line is still lagging behind a bit. We really need the Blue Line above
level 50 as well in order to promote "expansion" of the B-Bands; which can
increase probability for "for price action to "continue" rising for a sustained
period of time.
Due to how low the Blue Line is at present; we must conclude the White and
Aqua UPPER B-Bands will act as "resistance." We require more time to pass
to see if the Blue Line can rise above Yellow Level 50 in this 4-Day before we
can see an increased probability for price action to "continue" rising for a
sustained period of time.
MAGENTA TEXT BUBBLE:
Based on current location of the White Energy and Red Line in the
4-Day time frame; we have a decent probability for price action to
rise up to the Magenta Upper Chaos Channel in this 2-Day TF. It's
probably better to say, "Within proximity of this Magenta Upper
Chaos Channel; proximity to $30,210.
KEEP IN MIND: Market sentiment can change the next 24-hour candle. Meaning, we could potentially see a period of downward pressure begin but "might" only last for a brief period of time (1 to 3 days) before potentially rising higher to the $30,310 price point of the Magenta Upper Chaos Channel (mentioned in chart above).
You see the White Energy in the 24-hour falling and getting closer to level 50. Will it go below level 50 the next 24-hour candle? It's possible... However, I must say I like how high "both" the Red and Blue Lines are currently in the 24-hour. The Red Line in particular is above White Level 70; implying we can potentially hold support at the White UPPER B-Band in the 24-hour.
Hi Everyone! I know I've been away a bit. I've been prepping to move out of my house; then make a few repairs before putting it up for sale.
If you are familiar with my Phoenix Ascending indicator and rules; you would have seen a high probability of expansion "up" in the 12-hour, 24-hour and 2-Day time frames. WHY? The Red "and" Blue Lines were "both" above level 50 in all of those time frames; along with the Green Line and White Energy.
You would have also known once the Red Line crosses above level 50; upward pressure is triggered. And that upward pressure lasts for how long? Until the White Energy comes back to level 50.
Well, the Red Line is above Yellow Level 50 in the 4-Day time frame; suggesting upward pressure can continue until the white energy comes back down to level 50.
4-Day with Bad Ass B-Bands:
$30,310 is in between the White and Aqua UPPER B-Bands.
RED TEXT BUBBLE:
Red Line above Yellow Level 50; triggering upward pressure; with potential
to last until the White Energy returns back down to level 50.
BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:
The Blue Line is still lagging behind a bit. We really need the Blue Line above
level 50 as well in order to promote "expansion" of the B-Bands; which can
increase probability for "for price action to "continue" rising for a sustained
period of time.
Due to how low the Blue Line is at present; we must conclude the White and
Aqua UPPER B-Bands will act as "resistance." We require more time to pass
to see if the Blue Line can rise above Yellow Level 50 in this 4-Day before we
can see an increased probability for price action to "continue" rising for a
sustained period of time.
Based on current location of the White Energy and Red Line in the
4-Day time frame; we have a decent probability for price action to
rise up to the Magenta Upper Chaos Channel in this 2-Day TF. It's
probably better to say, "Within proximity of this Magenta Upper
Chaos Channel; proximity to $30,210.
KEEP IN MIND: Market sentiment can change the next 24-hour candle. Meaning, we could potentially see a period of downward pressure begin but "might" only last for a brief period of time (1 to 3 days) before potentially rising higher to the $30,310 price point of the Magenta Upper Chaos Channel (mentioned in chart above).
You see the White Energy in the 24-hour falling and getting closer to level 50. Will it go below level 50 the next 24-hour candle? It's possible... However, I must say I like how high "both" the Red and Blue Lines are currently in the 24-hour. The Red Line in particular is above White Level 70; implying we can potentially hold support at the White UPPER B-Band in the 24-hour.
Comment:
UPDATE:
I removed the B-Bands from the previous 2-Day chart with the Pivot/Chaos Channel in an effort to avoid the chart looking quite as "busy."
By the way, we can not conclude just yet if we are in that Descending Wedge Macro Accumulation Schematic - or - if we are in Phase C of a 2-Tiered Macro Accumulation Schematic.
FIRST, let's see if the price action can continue up to the White/Aqua Upper B-Bands in the 4-Day; which is also around the Magenta Upper Chaos Channel in the 2-Day around $30,310. If we can make it up to $30,310, we need to see what level the Blue Line is in the 4-Day at that time to determine if we have increased probability or not of the price continuing to rise or if we should anticipate $30,310 to continue acting as resistance; resulting in a pullback of the price action. How much we pull back from that point is what will help us determine if we are in Phase D a Descending Wedge Accumulation Schematic or if we are in Phase C of a 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic.
I removed the B-Bands from the previous 2-Day chart with the Pivot/Chaos Channel in an effort to avoid the chart looking quite as "busy."
By the way, we can not conclude just yet if we are in that Descending Wedge Macro Accumulation Schematic - or - if we are in Phase C of a 2-Tiered Macro Accumulation Schematic.
FIRST, let's see if the price action can continue up to the White/Aqua Upper B-Bands in the 4-Day; which is also around the Magenta Upper Chaos Channel in the 2-Day around $30,310. If we can make it up to $30,310, we need to see what level the Blue Line is in the 4-Day at that time to determine if we have increased probability or not of the price continuing to rise or if we should anticipate $30,310 to continue acting as resistance; resulting in a pullback of the price action. How much we pull back from that point is what will help us determine if we are in Phase D a Descending Wedge Accumulation Schematic or if we are in Phase C of a 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic.
Comment:
UPDATE:
1-Month time frame:
RED TEXT BUBBLE:
We require the Red Line, Blue Line, Green Line and White Energy "all" to rise above Yellow Level 50
to increase the probability for price action to continue rising with authority (expansion). Also, do
NOT assume the Green Line and White Energy will both be "rising" by the time this 1-Month candle
for the Month of October "closes." Yes, they are rising "now" but may not be rising by the time this
candle closes 29-Days and 13-Hours from this writing.
1-Month time frame:
RED TEXT BUBBLE:
We require the Red Line, Blue Line, Green Line and White Energy "all" to rise above Yellow Level 50
to increase the probability for price action to continue rising with authority (expansion). Also, do
NOT assume the Green Line and White Energy will both be "rising" by the time this 1-Month candle
for the Month of October "closes." Yes, they are rising "now" but may not be rising by the time this
candle closes 29-Days and 13-Hours from this writing.
Comment:
UPDATE:
2-Week time frame:
2-Week time frame:
Comment:
UPDATE:
If we are in a Descending Wedge Macro Accumulation Schematic; we are currently in Phase D:
If we are in a 2-Tiered Macro Accumulation Schematic, we are in Phase C:
SUMMARY:
The current level of the Red Line in the 2-Week time frame tells us we can NOT confirm just yet that a full fledged bull run for a sustained period of time has arrived. There is still a "chance" for price action to pull back from the current 200-MA in the 24-hour or 100-MA in the 2-Day. How far of a pullback? Well, let's wait for a pullback to actually begin first.
Do not assume I'm saying we are for a fact going up to $30,310. I'm saying "if" we continue going up; then proximity to $30,310 is a prime candidate for our "Ceiling of Resistance." We could turn back down from our current price; which is around the 200-MA in the 24-hour and 100-MA in the 2-Day.
REMINDER: The White Energy in the 24-hour is currently falling but has not quite made it back to level 50 just yet.
If we are in a Descending Wedge Macro Accumulation Schematic; we are currently in Phase D:
If we are in a 2-Tiered Macro Accumulation Schematic, we are in Phase C:
SUMMARY:
The current level of the Red Line in the 2-Week time frame tells us we can NOT confirm just yet that a full fledged bull run for a sustained period of time has arrived. There is still a "chance" for price action to pull back from the current 200-MA in the 24-hour or 100-MA in the 2-Day. How far of a pullback? Well, let's wait for a pullback to actually begin first.
Do not assume I'm saying we are for a fact going up to $30,310. I'm saying "if" we continue going up; then proximity to $30,310 is a prime candidate for our "Ceiling of Resistance." We could turn back down from our current price; which is around the 200-MA in the 24-hour and 100-MA in the 2-Day.
REMINDER: The White Energy in the 24-hour is currently falling but has not quite made it back to level 50 just yet.
Comment:
UPDATE:
I updated what was previously a Green Text Bubble to a Yellow text bubble in my Simple Moving Average with Pivot/Chaos Channel Chart for the 2-Day:
I updated what was previously a Green Text Bubble to a Yellow text bubble in my Simple Moving Average with Pivot/Chaos Channel Chart for the 2-Day:
Close-Up of our potential RE-Distribution Period:
Pulled Back View of our Major Distribution Period as well as our RE-Distribution Period during MACRO Accumulation.
Green Bubbles represent ACCUMULATION Events for a 2-Tiered Accumulation Schematic. Burgandy Text Bubbles represent events in RE-Distribution in the chart below: