1) we broke through the green cloud after hitting 20k... then bounced back over ... but when the kumo twist to red happened (bearish signal) was when we hit the 17k bull trap (1/7) and started the unrelenting descent downwards. We then stayed under the red cloud the whole way down to 6k, until we broke through on the rebound 2/13-2/17. The top of the cloud has then provided strong support numerous times. It is Kumo twisting Green in the next 24 hours... as we regain momentum to test the resistance trendline from the 20k top ---- 17k bull trap --- 11.7k rejection --- now ... the line is currently at 10.8k.
This TF also has the 50SMA about to bullish cross the 200SMA. The bearish cross the other way happened slightly after the bull trap.
This TF, which has been remarkably accurate, is very bullish about our likelihood of breaking out of this bearish moment and back in to a bull phase. That also fits with the Eliot Wave idea that Wave 1 was 5.9k to 11.7k (.5 Fib retracement from the top), Wave 2 was the retrace to 9200 (which only briefly broke through the .382 Fib retracement level).
And now we are starting wave 3 which I expect to be a long bull wave that takes us up to retest the ATH assuming we break through this bearish resistance in the next week. I believe the momentum is there and the bears are spent, but we will see. The best time to load up long will be after breaking through the resistance trend line on a retest.
If we are firmly rejected at the trendline, it will be a good time to short, although I would watch this more carefully. If we break through the trendline then i will feel pretty confident in a bull phase.
This TF also has the 50SMA about to bullish cross the 200SMA. The bearish cross the other way happened slightly after the bull trap.
This TF, which has been remarkably accurate, is very bullish about our likelihood of breaking out of this bearish moment and back in to a bull phase. That also fits with the Eliot Wave idea that Wave 1 was 5.9k to 11.7k (.5 Fib retracement from the top), Wave 2 was the retrace to 9200 (which only briefly broke through the .382 Fib retracement level).
And now we are starting wave 3 which I expect to be a long bull wave that takes us up to retest the ATH assuming we break through this bearish resistance in the next week. I believe the momentum is there and the bears are spent, but we will see. The best time to load up long will be after breaking through the resistance trend line on a retest.
If we are firmly rejected at the trendline, it will be a good time to short, although I would watch this more carefully. If we break through the trendline then i will feel pretty confident in a bull phase.