ETH and BTC Bullish Chart and Longs (XRP not so much)

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This is primarily a BTCUSD post but I am going to start on ETHUSD .

ETHUSD has been consolidating after it doubled from its low at falling wedge support and the volume really confirms a lot of action. After pulling back from $160 we have seen that the price action has found support on the 3 day 20 SMA (and other significant moving averages if you want to dive into that).
The longs on ETHUSD have formed a bullish ascending triangle with a rising support that has been in play since July of last year. I believe the basics of charting apply to longs chart in that chart formations matter, and maybe you could throw the RSI and MACD on there and see if an uptrend is divergent, but I don’t really believe you can to target setting to close your margin position when the longs reach their target. For example, if an ascending triangle performs 68% on target in equities I don’t think we could measure the Hight of the triangle and close our long when it hits 68% of the height. Moving on to the ethusd shorts: They look a hot mess.

BTCUSD is in a similar position with regards to the falling wedge and 20 EMA , but BTCUSD has not broken out of the wedge yet. Should BTCUSD pop out of the wedge there are still going to be significant challenges and I assume we are going to test and retest the 3D 20 several times, and I remind readers that when we came out of the 2014 falling wedge he tested the 200w three times and had to go through a golden cross, a bear cross, and a final golden cross on the daily timeframes over the course of some 270 days. Once we got lift off of the 200w we then smacked into an ascending triangle for another 200 some days.

The BTCUSD longs appear to have an inverted head and shoulders pattern going on but in a continuation position rather than r in a reversal position. So either I am seeing something that isn’t really there, or the BTCUSD longs are finding an unorthodox way of breaking through psychological resistance. BTCUSD Shorts look like they double topped September and December and might be breaking through a support line that was established last May. I don’t thing that a short squeeze will really fuel an uptrend, but I do think it will be a signal that the bears are back in their cave.

Going down to the 12h we clearly see that BTCUSD is trying to find support on top of the symmetrical triangle it formed beginning back in November. Should the triangle resistance become support that will be seen as very bullish by support and resistance traders. The hidden bullish divergence on the RSI and potential bullish cross on the MACD are also promising. We have not had a proper bullish cross on the 12h MACD above zero in a long time.

All of this analysis aside, the ultimate test of BTCUSDs short term fate is going to be determined by buyers materializing at wedge resistance. We can grind against the wedge a bit while people make up their minds but if we don’t break out we don’t break out.

XRPUSD doesn’t look healthy compared to BTCUSD and ETHUSD as it has found the 3d 20MA as resistance, and not support. The longs are at resistance in a symmetrical triangle and the shorts are at support. Based on the chart below, and the chart below alone I would expect XRPUSD to fall out of the triangle as the longs get squeezed out a bit more and the shorts increase to take advantage. That would require a unique event of XRPUSD decoupling from BTCUSD and bears careful watching.

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