Convergence of strategic long terms supports ? Bounce or BEAR !
Hello !
As mentionned in the tittle, Imo we are at the most critical point of this 2019 year.
Let me introduce that by some graphics.
Well first of all :
Here, we can see 4 important things in logarithmic weekly chart :
First, since 17 of August 2015, The OBV hasn't stopped growing. This show that, we can assume that we have never been truely in a long term "bear market".
The bear market of 2018 was healthy bubble correction and smart money making profits.
Second, We have this trendline that i think is significant a lot. It has been supporting the price since November 9th of 2015 and has never been broken. I'll assume that if we break this trendline with volume close weekly under this one, we could be engaged in a long term bearmarket ( the real one ).
Third, the 6k support that we all know is converging with the trendline mentionned up there. It make the actual price has the choice eihter to go up and save us from a Waterfall, or either to go down and be a scary thing.
And 4th, we can see the RSI going in the same direction of the price but the inverse direction of the OBV, which mean that even with the price going down since the last 40% pump, money still come in Bitcoin.
The institutions are taking the boat and if i can allow my self a good sentence : When a customer miss the boat, he miss the boat. When a n institution miss the boat, it pulls the boat back. The actuals ( i mean recent ) price action is an accumulation phase for the longterm bull run that should be coming with the halving. That was my opinion.
Let's now talk about short terms prices action and how I will place my entries. As "The Moon" says, always put my money where my mouth is.
Well :
Here we can notice in daily logarythmic chart 3 things :
First one is that resistance line on rsi we have to go through to assume being bull at least with confirmation like a pull back.
Second : We have this horizontal line in Daily OBV that is imo really important and significant.
Third and last : We really need to retest the 9k green zone before wishing to go anywhere else.
Let's now go on H4 chart ( non logarythmic ) :
I can assume that the RSI wishes to follow this orange curve that i draw. Looks like after suffering he wants to offer him self a new dynamic upside motion.
Then we can observe the resistance breaking on the OBV.
In conclusion : With all the macro like Halving incoming, Key supports i mentionned, Institutions entering, Balance growing up even when price is dumping, I would with 90% certainty assume that we just reached the bottom of this retracement and that we should go up and test the 9k resistance within the early new year. The price may have to correct a little bit more to seeing the rsi evolution and the obv.
To complete this, i'll show you all a MA chart :
Here you have it, if the 20 monthly MA is broken, i assume that we will see a bear market for at least one more year.
Talking about my entries, i would long x5 or x10 near to 7K with stop loss at 5.5k short term. Long term, i already bought at this bottom 7K and will still buy as long as we stand above this green 20 monthly MA.
Disclaimer : This is not financial advice.
Thanks a lot, don't forget to share and like if you enjoyed.
PS: As a French man, excuse me for my English :/
Bye !
As mentionned in the tittle, Imo we are at the most critical point of this 2019 year.
Let me introduce that by some graphics.
Well first of all :
Here, we can see 4 important things in logarithmic weekly chart :
First, since 17 of August 2015, The OBV hasn't stopped growing. This show that, we can assume that we have never been truely in a long term "bear market".
The bear market of 2018 was healthy bubble correction and smart money making profits.
Second, We have this trendline that i think is significant a lot. It has been supporting the price since November 9th of 2015 and has never been broken. I'll assume that if we break this trendline with volume close weekly under this one, we could be engaged in a long term bearmarket ( the real one ).
Third, the 6k support that we all know is converging with the trendline mentionned up there. It make the actual price has the choice eihter to go up and save us from a Waterfall, or either to go down and be a scary thing.
And 4th, we can see the RSI going in the same direction of the price but the inverse direction of the OBV, which mean that even with the price going down since the last 40% pump, money still come in Bitcoin.
The institutions are taking the boat and if i can allow my self a good sentence : When a customer miss the boat, he miss the boat. When a n institution miss the boat, it pulls the boat back. The actuals ( i mean recent ) price action is an accumulation phase for the longterm bull run that should be coming with the halving. That was my opinion.
Let's now talk about short terms prices action and how I will place my entries. As "The Moon" says, always put my money where my mouth is.
Well :
Here we can notice in daily logarythmic chart 3 things :
First one is that resistance line on rsi we have to go through to assume being bull at least with confirmation like a pull back.
Second : We have this horizontal line in Daily OBV that is imo really important and significant.
Third and last : We really need to retest the 9k green zone before wishing to go anywhere else.
Let's now go on H4 chart ( non logarythmic ) :
I can assume that the RSI wishes to follow this orange curve that i draw. Looks like after suffering he wants to offer him self a new dynamic upside motion.
Then we can observe the resistance breaking on the OBV.
In conclusion : With all the macro like Halving incoming, Key supports i mentionned, Institutions entering, Balance growing up even when price is dumping, I would with 90% certainty assume that we just reached the bottom of this retracement and that we should go up and test the 9k resistance within the early new year. The price may have to correct a little bit more to seeing the rsi evolution and the obv.
To complete this, i'll show you all a MA chart :
Here you have it, if the 20 monthly MA is broken, i assume that we will see a bear market for at least one more year.
Talking about my entries, i would long x5 or x10 near to 7K with stop loss at 5.5k short term. Long term, i already bought at this bottom 7K and will still buy as long as we stand above this green 20 monthly MA.
Disclaimer : This is not financial advice.
Thanks a lot, don't forget to share and like if you enjoyed.
PS: As a French man, excuse me for my English :/
Bye !