As my Subs will be aware i was concerned with the recent price action with Bitcoin particularity the low conviction on any bounces and the continued overhead resistance, this was several weeks ago, when i was pitching a continued fall to the $7,000 level.
Well we are currently at that level, so the question is where to from here?
We are at a pivotal point for Bitcoin, for a number of reasons:
1) We are just above the 89 ema, which is really a line in the sand between the bulls and the bears
2) We are sitting on the 61.8% Fib retracement, which is the most important of all Fib numbers, a failure to hold this area means a leg down to the 78.6% level is on the cards (currently around $5500)
3) We are also at the mean (21) of the monthly Keltner channel, a move to this level is healthy in a broader bull market, however a move below this level is a strong signal that substantially lower prices are on the cards.
The edges outlined here suggest that we will either see a bounce soon, which will NEED to have strong supporting volume to invalidate these bearish arguments. This is not necessarily what the technicals are suggesting.
Or
The other option is that we continue the sideways/ drop down consolidation we have seen recently, gradually taking out the Fib levels, in this instance then a final move to the 90% retracement ($4200) is entirely possible and is one investors should be prepared for.
In any case, I do believe that the absolute low seen in December/ January was the low, but it is also not out of the question to see the market come back into that area to retest.
Side note: Investors should welcome this because it means that the foundation is stronger and more suited to a real sustained rally in the future.
Well we are currently at that level, so the question is where to from here?
We are at a pivotal point for Bitcoin, for a number of reasons:
1) We are just above the 89 ema, which is really a line in the sand between the bulls and the bears
2) We are sitting on the 61.8% Fib retracement, which is the most important of all Fib numbers, a failure to hold this area means a leg down to the 78.6% level is on the cards (currently around $5500)
3) We are also at the mean (21) of the monthly Keltner channel, a move to this level is healthy in a broader bull market, however a move below this level is a strong signal that substantially lower prices are on the cards.
The edges outlined here suggest that we will either see a bounce soon, which will NEED to have strong supporting volume to invalidate these bearish arguments. This is not necessarily what the technicals are suggesting.
Or
The other option is that we continue the sideways/ drop down consolidation we have seen recently, gradually taking out the Fib levels, in this instance then a final move to the 90% retracement ($4200) is entirely possible and is one investors should be prepared for.
In any case, I do believe that the absolute low seen in December/ January was the low, but it is also not out of the question to see the market come back into that area to retest.
Side note: Investors should welcome this because it means that the foundation is stronger and more suited to a real sustained rally in the future.
Trade active:
BTC has just had quite a strong bounce on strong volume, this has since shifted the monthly candle to positive, this is a positive sign, particularly as this move has been accompanied with good volume, watch to see how the week ends and see if this move is just mean reverting, or something more.
