Hi guys,
The latest movement from BTC is looking quite strange to me, almost artificial, to say the least.
We hit $10,000 on May 7 then fell all the way down to $8,000 before jumping back to $8,700. I mean I don't believe in round numbers since they don't always represent the technical levels, which are important to the price. I believe this is a fake correction, and BTC will reach $10,000-$12,000 in the days/weeks following the halving. But I also agree with many that the halving is already priced in partially, so don't expect some stupid number like $200,000 or $1 million as this is ridiculous. No one will allow that.
Bitcoin started dropping on Friday and in three days reached $8,700 (the strong S/R zone between $8,600-$8,700). Bitcoin was obviously losing momentum days before the halving event, but was it really?
We saw two big waves of increased volume in the last few days. First was on Friday when volumes spiked to $63 billion, up from $48. The second was yesterday, from $45 billion to $61 billion.
Bad: We could not keep the price above the long-term downtrend line and failed to print a new year high, which is not a good sign at all. Also, moved out of the rectangle that was supposed to serve as a stability mechanism prior to the halving.
Good: Price below $12,000 won't be profitable for miners after the halving, so the only actual mechanism for them to compensate for the reduced block reward is to increase the price. The other is to have significantly higher transaction fees. Second, we found really strong support around the $8,600-$8,700 zone and $8,000 is heavily fortified by the two long-term EMA's. I don't see the price going below $8k.
On the 1h chart there is a formation, which is looking like an inverted Head and Shoulders,
So, I would say a break above $8,900 can be our trigger up...just like it was a week ago when there was a downtrend corridor and it was broken at $8,900 triggering the runup to $10,000.
Cheers,
The latest movement from BTC is looking quite strange to me, almost artificial, to say the least.
We hit $10,000 on May 7 then fell all the way down to $8,000 before jumping back to $8,700. I mean I don't believe in round numbers since they don't always represent the technical levels, which are important to the price. I believe this is a fake correction, and BTC will reach $10,000-$12,000 in the days/weeks following the halving. But I also agree with many that the halving is already priced in partially, so don't expect some stupid number like $200,000 or $1 million as this is ridiculous. No one will allow that.
Bitcoin started dropping on Friday and in three days reached $8,700 (the strong S/R zone between $8,600-$8,700). Bitcoin was obviously losing momentum days before the halving event, but was it really?
We saw two big waves of increased volume in the last few days. First was on Friday when volumes spiked to $63 billion, up from $48. The second was yesterday, from $45 billion to $61 billion.
Bad: We could not keep the price above the long-term downtrend line and failed to print a new year high, which is not a good sign at all. Also, moved out of the rectangle that was supposed to serve as a stability mechanism prior to the halving.
Good: Price below $12,000 won't be profitable for miners after the halving, so the only actual mechanism for them to compensate for the reduced block reward is to increase the price. The other is to have significantly higher transaction fees. Second, we found really strong support around the $8,600-$8,700 zone and $8,000 is heavily fortified by the two long-term EMA's. I don't see the price going below $8k.
On the 1h chart there is a formation, which is looking like an inverted Head and Shoulders,
So, I would say a break above $8,900 can be our trigger up...just like it was a week ago when there was a downtrend corridor and it was broken at $8,900 triggering the runup to $10,000.
Cheers,
Trade active:
So, BTC rebounded perfectly from the lower end of the support area - around $8,600 just like predicted and is currently trading below $8,900 - let's see if surpassing this mark will trigger a more solid bullish movement.
