important 8200 which is also the SMA200, but it failed to close
above it and came down to close in red on the day. A dissapointment for
Bulls but nothing unnatural in a bottoming process. It is normal to see a
retest of previous low, so that might be coming, i.e a drop towards 6500.
But today we have seen some green and price is currently trading above
the Daily at 7800 (right chart).
If price breaks below this level and the intraday low at 7550 we might see
a deeper drop towards the Daily S1 at 7000 and below that we are looking
at the Weekly S1 for support at 6600.
If price instead bounce higher from the Daily pp the Daily R1 will be the
first resistance at 8400 and then there isn't much of resistance until the
critical 9200-9500 level.
Overall, it is still early, from a daily perspective, to know wether we are in
a retracement of a bear trend or if we are carving out a bottom. It is clear
that the 8250 level is the current level that price
needs to breach and close above, to relieve immediate pressure.
And then it is the 9400 level. For price to put in a reversal swing it has to
take out the 12000 top, so with that in mind, it becomes clear, just how deep
price has fallen over the last weeks, and what is needed to shift this downside
bias. A good thing though from a Bulls perspective, is that price did find support
by the Monthly S1 after some intial probing below it. In a bull trend that is the
last resort for Bulls and should hold support. Monthly S1 is at 7150.
Bulls would also like to see the indicator turn up and put in a cross
followed by some strong upward candles. Currently it is showing early
signs of that. Again, it would be natural with a retest of the low at this point
and even if the low is taken out, the 5000 level is solid support below, with
the channel floor, 88.6 fib, Weekly S2.
chances increase that current low will hold medium term, even if price drops back, it's more likely that the Monthly S1 pivot will hold up.
If it fails to close above again, chances increase for a drop. There is no support at 4500 though. Below 4800-5000 we are looking at 3000 ultimately even if
there is support at 4200 Monthly S2, the sell off here would probably be so strong it would cut through. Markets are always unpredictable that's why
making predictions is more of entertainment than anything else, having said that, I know its what many non analysts yearns for in a time of chaos and
uncertainty and yes many "analysts" too.