First, here's my story!
I've been following lots of ideas here on Trading view and been actively watching Bitcoin for the past 2 years. I'm one of those who got butthurt just when I invested in the crypto market and guess what... I spent the last year and a half learning how to trade professionally instead of simply jumping into every crypto or stock that pumps up irrationally.
Why did I get butthurt? Let me elaborate!
I tried to buy Bitcoin in October 2016. One of my business friends introduced me to it. We were discussing the many ways I could transfer money to him from the Middle East to China and he told me about this new thing called "Bitcoin". I was impressed right away and yes... the price was just shy above 700$. I tried to take it seriously but our small business didn't take off, so I never bought the bitcoins . Long story short, China blocked access to Bitcoin before the turn of that year and I didn't know any "outlaw" ways to purchase my first bitcoin .
The price had already hit $17.8k by the time I had completed the first phase of investing in crypto. Yes, you guessed it right. I went through every cycle of that crypto ride. Optimism -> Belief -> Thrill -> Euphoria (when I got in) -> Complacency -> Anxiety -> Denial -> Panic...
I started learning about charts, patterns, cycles, and waves somewhere along the anxiety phase. I had finally learned that the term "bubble" is too powerful.
After months of studying and real-life experimenting, I can proudly say that I've become a semi-expert at reading charts and predicting prices.
I believe many of you got tired of my story xD
So let's get down to work!
Whether you believe this or not, we're nearing a major cross for the price of bitcoin and you guessed it right! it's happening between March 30 and April 2. Are the whales prepping a big "April's fool!!" for us? ... mmm ... Don't get fooled guys, just don't.
Now, let me tell you why it's extremely unlikely that the price will actually break above that huge green resistance line on our chart. If we fail to break above it, it would be the third time bitcoin fails. The first attempt was at the ATH on Dec 16, 2017. The second attempt was on Nov 14, 2018, and it failed miserably. It took almost an entire year to define that line. Now that we're getting close to that cross again, we can safely say that it's something to look forward to. In my opinion, Bitcoin will test that level again but fail to go above yet again and the reason I believe it will fail is this. While it is the third attempt (and third attempts are usually more likely to succeed from psychological point of view), the technical part of price as well as the fundamentals aren't on our side yet. In terms of , and on the mid-term horizon (and by mid-term I mean daily and weekly) are not too but rather enough to get the price down by April 1st this year. Fundamentally speaking, Blockchain and crypto as a whole are still waiting for a major update. We do not have what it takes to start a bull run and I don't see it happening for a while just yet. Are we seeing early signs in the market? We're possibly seeing yes, with some coins and tokens at least. Enjin coin is pumping with great volumes. ETH is testing trend reversal. Bitcoin is too.
My opinion is this. We will see a pump that would take us right under the huge green line on our chart (that pump has been in play since 17th of December 2017) and then drop back to the red line below to establish just another higher low for bitcoin .
I will not discuss further for now. We need to see confirmation for this scenario by early April and if price breaks above that green line then this whole scenario goes down the bin.
Thank you for reading this guys! Hope you keep track of my analysis and invite some friends to follow me xD
You can check to get a closer look of what is really happening on that chart above.