Hey guys, hope you are doing well,
these past few weeks of consolidation will soon result in a release of pent up energy, and volatility will come back in as the decision time is finally reached.
The main thing that will drive the next big move it the structure break on the weekly chart - i have drawn a descending wedge to the closes, with the yellow line representing the floor support. if weekly candle closes below this line, we are likely to see a continuation bear market towards 5k leading into the beginning of 2019.
The path of least resistance is down ( way more technical indicators still in favor of bear case). but if they don't get their panic sell-off through the floor between now and sometime mid-September, it is likely they will give up, and we can see a massive spike in prices as bears give up and cover shorts, while fomo buyers, who have been patiently waiting, also take long entries.
Bear Play: ( floor break)
I am not shorting, but rather preparing a long trade - buying 5'500 initially, with a TP around 6'2 levels, (if this 6,2 level breaks support, it will turn into massive resistance) which will likely send the continuation into 5k and hopefully 4'800 where I am prepared to back up the truck.
No sense trading in this low volatility and risk getting chopped up. Wait for the impulse move, let it play out, then make logical decisions, as the TA develops.
Either way, i am excited to see what the market will look like over the next few months. (for accumulation sake..i hope it sells off into 5k so i can load up on long-term holdings) but that could still be a few months away. we will have to wait and see.
And remember, trading is always fun and entertaining, so long as you are not risking more than you can afford to lose.
Best of luck, hit the thumbs up.
these past few weeks of consolidation will soon result in a release of pent up energy, and volatility will come back in as the decision time is finally reached.
The main thing that will drive the next big move it the structure break on the weekly chart - i have drawn a descending wedge to the closes, with the yellow line representing the floor support. if weekly candle closes below this line, we are likely to see a continuation bear market towards 5k leading into the beginning of 2019.
The path of least resistance is down ( way more technical indicators still in favor of bear case). but if they don't get their panic sell-off through the floor between now and sometime mid-September, it is likely they will give up, and we can see a massive spike in prices as bears give up and cover shorts, while fomo buyers, who have been patiently waiting, also take long entries.
Bear Play: ( floor break)
I am not shorting, but rather preparing a long trade - buying 5'500 initially, with a TP around 6'2 levels, (if this 6,2 level breaks support, it will turn into massive resistance) which will likely send the continuation into 5k and hopefully 4'800 where I am prepared to back up the truck.
No sense trading in this low volatility and risk getting chopped up. Wait for the impulse move, let it play out, then make logical decisions, as the TA develops.
Either way, i am excited to see what the market will look like over the next few months. (for accumulation sake..i hope it sells off into 5k so i can load up on long-term holdings) but that could still be a few months away. we will have to wait and see.
And remember, trading is always fun and entertaining, so long as you are not risking more than you can afford to lose.
Best of luck, hit the thumbs up.
Comment:
Monthly close below 20MA will also confirm continuation bear market. Watch for this.
Comment:
Today is BTC 10th birthday - it going to be so cool to look back on this 10 years from now and clicking play on this idea :p. Thanks to everyone who is coming along for the ride with me!
This last update for this idea shows my take on the TA for the log scale ( ascending pitchfork/channel. (for historical purposes I want to see how this holds up over time.)
This last update for this idea shows my take on the TA for the log scale ( ascending pitchfork/channel. (for historical purposes I want to see how this holds up over time.)
Comment:
The floor break came in, now we must rely on the 23.6 fib to hold support! and take us back up to high 5's!
