controllinghand

Aroon is better than NVT (5 months later) Bitcoin (BTC)

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I published an idea a while back stating that Aroon is a better indicator for Predicting Bitcoin ( BTC ) than NVT:

It's been almost 6 months later and here are the results:

On May 11th Aroon said buy BTC at $7200. NVT was telling you to sell BTC .
Today Nov 1st BTC sits at ~$9100

Many are saying that BTC will crash soon and that might be true. However, according to Aroon we have a very strong base at $7200.

Aroon is telling us to stay in this trade
NVT has not yet signal a buy entry. However, if Aroon stays green and NVT does signal I'm going to be buying more BTC .

I do have a golden rule to not lose more than 10% in any trade. so unless BTC hits $6480 I'm going long BTC .

Be safe out there and this is not investment advise yada yada.

~Controllinghand



Comments

Which is why no one should never use just one indicator on its own to make any trading decision. Good luck with your long.
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PurpleCrypto PurpleCrypto
@PurpleCrypto, *ever use.
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controllinghand PurpleCrypto
@PurpleCrypto, agreed. However, the Aroon indicator is different than all the rest. Most indicators are based on price over time and make a decision. But Aroon is one of the only indicators (that I know) that looks at time over price. This is why I think Aroon is very important tools to have in your tool bag.
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PurpleCrypto controllinghand
@controllinghand, Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
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PurpleCrypto controllinghand
@controllinghand, Just to clarify, based on the indicator on your chart, it's looking like the red is ready to cross over the green which means the price is likely to come down in the future when it does.

Is this correct?
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controllinghand PurpleCrypto
@PurpleCrypto, Yes this is possible. However at the current date and time the price would have to hit $3820 for that to happen for the Red to hit 100. If you go back 233 days, you will see that $3820 was the lowest low in the 233 day period. As you can see this is a different way to look at things. It's more about time and where the price is as time moves. if you are interested in more details. Check out a document I put together https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B54wJ8w5qxkyWWVFSUJoeVhJZWs/view

I back tested this to the 1900s. Aroon was able to predict things like the great depression and better yet when to get back into the market once it did hit.
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PurpleCrypto controllinghand
@controllinghand, You are very generous indeed. I'll be looking into this to determine if its a suitable addition to my trading strategy. Cheers mate.
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controllinghand PurpleCrypto
@PurpleCrypto, My pleasure. I hope you get value from it. Let me know if you have any more questions or suggestions
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Hey OP, it may also be worth while to check out Gaussian Channel too on the daily... It showed the correction over right at the start of May, which would have given you a ton more gain on your position than only starting out at around the 7k mark to accumulate or go long...

Currently daily is still showing red on Gaussian but I also expect it to turn green possibly within November which will mark a great buying opportunity too at that point. But I think cross referencing with Aaroon isn’t a bad idea either.

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@Zulu_Kilo, Thanks for the heads up. I like and use Gaussian as well. I'm still working on how to implement it into my Aroon method. I often use Aroon 21 and MACD for multiple entry points but I didn't want to confuse everyone. For longterm investment Aroon 233 seems to be my best tool to determine a Bull or Bear market for any stock/crypto. I can tell in seconds if a stock is trending up or down.

Sometimes if you believe in a stock/crypto for longterm you might enter into it when it's in a bear trend (hopefully at the end) . So you really get a good price. It all depends on how much you believe in a stock/crypto. Also, it's important to set rules when to get out so you limit your losses.

At the end of the day, no one that I know of has a perfect system. However, if you learn from your mistakes and set and follow your rules, one can make good returns over the longterm. I for one have average ~22% for the last 20 years. 2008 was a tuff year but made up for it in the years following that. and I create more rules so if another 2008 hits I'll be ready :-).
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