BTC TO FALL TO 3380$ BEFORE FINDING SUPPORT TO 3800$
BTC (FINEX) INTRA-DAY BREAKDOWN - 17/12/18
Welcome to another episode of our favourite show - bitcoin brought to you by FELIX!
I have been heavily concentrating on XBT price action as of late due to the bearish nature of the market. But, I think its time that we took a good look at the bullish price leader (BTC) FINEX!
So what has occurred since our last breakdown ?
On the 11th of December I stated in a intra-day breakdown that FINEX will test 3650$ and see a rejection from this level in accordance with our BITMEX analysis, which can also be found on our TradingView page. We saw support average at 3323$ and our indicated zones on RSI/ROC and RSI standalone were used as support in line with our bitmex analysis (remember they follow each other). Now we will take a deeper look at the next move we can expect!
WHAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE 4 HOURLY CHARTS FOR BTC ?
- We can see that since the 43 level on RSI/ROC was used as support at just below 3323$ (our pre-outlined support zone) in line with the black line on RSI/ROC, which we stated was a zone of bullish tendency, BTC had bullish activity to just below 3650$ ceiling. Remember, I had posted LONG XBT analysis at 3150$ and stated that for BITMEX our target would only be to 3427$.
- We can see that since 3650$ ceiling was tested, BTC is looking oversold on the 4 hourly charts on both momentum indicators. Lets firstly take a look at the RSI momentum indicator. We can see that the infamous short level of 82 on this indicator was achieved - historically, BTC has a tendency to collapse from this zone as it often runs out of bullish momentum driven by finex. We can also see from looking at our RSI/ROC indicator that the 65 level on this indicator has currently been achieved and I expect further down action till the 53 level on the 4 hourly charts on this indicator before any bullish momentum comes back into BTC.
- None the less, on the 4 hourly charts, we can see main BEARISH RED TREND LINE on price chart is showing us that BTC has maximum upward movement till 3850-800$ for this intra-day move and in order to achieve this price level without exhausting bullish momentum, then we will have to see a spike down to previous support levels at 3400$ and in line with this MEX as stated in our most recent breakdown should see a drop to 3250$ support zone aswell.
WHAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE 1 HOURLY CHARTS FOR BTC ?
- We can see that again BTC is on its last knees of bullish momentum and we are currently maintaining price above 3480$ support quite artificially judging by our momentum indicators. We can not rule out a retest of 3650$ ceiling before the bulls realise they just can’t break this level without gaining further bullish momentum at one of our downward targets.
- We can see that previous price ceiling before this breakout was at 3380$ and a retest of this zone could be quite evident in finding support towards our upward targets of 3800$ before a final break to the downside (our medium term perspective is still very very bearish).
- We can also see that EMA 200 is currently at just below 3450$, thus on our way down to 3380$, our main zone of bullish confluence will be in line with EMA support at 3450$. Thus we can deduce our bearish targets for this move to be 3450$,3400$ and as low as 3380-50$ before any solid bullish momentum is found like we did at 3320$ previously. This also stays in line with the idea of higher lows being formed to maintain bullish momentum and not let bears take over just yet before 3800$ is reached on FINEX.
- I expect a drop to come from current region on RSI/ROC to 53 level where we will once again line up with black trend line of bullish support on this momentum indicator - this is where we should be thinking to go long again.
WHAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE DAILY CHARTS FOR BTC ?
- On the daily charts for BTC we can see that the BLACK trend line on price chart has consistently been support for bitcoin for a very long time and the other descending black lines on price chart have been consistent resistance with the RED trend line on price chart being the most intra-day/immediate trend line. There seems to be somewhat of a larger wedge forming at current price levels, thus a break of our CLEAR resistance zone of 3800$ will lead to us evaluating bullish activity to the upside move - at least to 4150$ (weekly EMA 200 is currently at 4100$ and this level will be difficult to break) and also, 4435$.
- This is not to suggest BTC will not follow our plan of a intra-day rejection from 3650$ to 3380$ before finding support at 3380$ and having another crack at 3800$. ITS JUST TO SAY WHAT IF/ WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF 3800$ IS BROKEN.
- Indicators such as RSI/ROC showing slight bullish tendencies on the daily with main resistance at 65 level on the daily since we have used initial 56 level resistance on RSI/ROC as support. Again, evidence of bullish activity to 3800$ being validated but again as ive stated, this is not physically possible without a drop to reset smaller time frames to bullish zones of tendency.
All in all, we can deduce that we should expect 3650$ ceiling to hold given a bearish price leader drop from MEX at 3427$ and once this occurs this should drive prices on FINEX down to lows of 3380$ and MEX should be at 3250$ before we see support to 3610$ for MEX and 3800$ for FINEX.
REMEMBER, WE ARE STILL BEARISH IN THE LONG RUN WITH DOWN WARD TARGETS TO LOWS OF 1750$ BEFORE BTC FINDS ANY MAJOR REAL SUPPORT TO DRIVE IT INTO A BULL RUN!
PLEASE SEE RELATED IDEAS DOWN BELOW ;) & don't forget to stay up to date with our calls by following our Instagram and telegram channels down below AND ON OUR TRADINGVIEW PAGE!
Welcome to another episode of our favourite show - bitcoin brought to you by FELIX!
I have been heavily concentrating on XBT price action as of late due to the bearish nature of the market. But, I think its time that we took a good look at the bullish price leader (BTC) FINEX!
So what has occurred since our last breakdown ?
On the 11th of December I stated in a intra-day breakdown that FINEX will test 3650$ and see a rejection from this level in accordance with our BITMEX analysis, which can also be found on our TradingView page. We saw support average at 3323$ and our indicated zones on RSI/ROC and RSI standalone were used as support in line with our bitmex analysis (remember they follow each other). Now we will take a deeper look at the next move we can expect!
WHAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE 4 HOURLY CHARTS FOR BTC ?
- We can see that since the 43 level on RSI/ROC was used as support at just below 3323$ (our pre-outlined support zone) in line with the black line on RSI/ROC, which we stated was a zone of bullish tendency, BTC had bullish activity to just below 3650$ ceiling. Remember, I had posted LONG XBT analysis at 3150$ and stated that for BITMEX our target would only be to 3427$.
- We can see that since 3650$ ceiling was tested, BTC is looking oversold on the 4 hourly charts on both momentum indicators. Lets firstly take a look at the RSI momentum indicator. We can see that the infamous short level of 82 on this indicator was achieved - historically, BTC has a tendency to collapse from this zone as it often runs out of bullish momentum driven by finex. We can also see from looking at our RSI/ROC indicator that the 65 level on this indicator has currently been achieved and I expect further down action till the 53 level on the 4 hourly charts on this indicator before any bullish momentum comes back into BTC.
- None the less, on the 4 hourly charts, we can see main BEARISH RED TREND LINE on price chart is showing us that BTC has maximum upward movement till 3850-800$ for this intra-day move and in order to achieve this price level without exhausting bullish momentum, then we will have to see a spike down to previous support levels at 3400$ and in line with this MEX as stated in our most recent breakdown should see a drop to 3250$ support zone aswell.
WHAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE 1 HOURLY CHARTS FOR BTC ?
- We can see that again BTC is on its last knees of bullish momentum and we are currently maintaining price above 3480$ support quite artificially judging by our momentum indicators. We can not rule out a retest of 3650$ ceiling before the bulls realise they just can’t break this level without gaining further bullish momentum at one of our downward targets.
- We can see that previous price ceiling before this breakout was at 3380$ and a retest of this zone could be quite evident in finding support towards our upward targets of 3800$ before a final break to the downside (our medium term perspective is still very very bearish).
- We can also see that EMA 200 is currently at just below 3450$, thus on our way down to 3380$, our main zone of bullish confluence will be in line with EMA support at 3450$. Thus we can deduce our bearish targets for this move to be 3450$,3400$ and as low as 3380-50$ before any solid bullish momentum is found like we did at 3320$ previously. This also stays in line with the idea of higher lows being formed to maintain bullish momentum and not let bears take over just yet before 3800$ is reached on FINEX.
- I expect a drop to come from current region on RSI/ROC to 53 level where we will once again line up with black trend line of bullish support on this momentum indicator - this is where we should be thinking to go long again.
WHAT CAN BE SEEN ON THE DAILY CHARTS FOR BTC ?
- On the daily charts for BTC we can see that the BLACK trend line on price chart has consistently been support for bitcoin for a very long time and the other descending black lines on price chart have been consistent resistance with the RED trend line on price chart being the most intra-day/immediate trend line. There seems to be somewhat of a larger wedge forming at current price levels, thus a break of our CLEAR resistance zone of 3800$ will lead to us evaluating bullish activity to the upside move - at least to 4150$ (weekly EMA 200 is currently at 4100$ and this level will be difficult to break) and also, 4435$.
- This is not to suggest BTC will not follow our plan of a intra-day rejection from 3650$ to 3380$ before finding support at 3380$ and having another crack at 3800$. ITS JUST TO SAY WHAT IF/ WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF 3800$ IS BROKEN.
- Indicators such as RSI/ROC showing slight bullish tendencies on the daily with main resistance at 65 level on the daily since we have used initial 56 level resistance on RSI/ROC as support. Again, evidence of bullish activity to 3800$ being validated but again as ive stated, this is not physically possible without a drop to reset smaller time frames to bullish zones of tendency.
All in all, we can deduce that we should expect 3650$ ceiling to hold given a bearish price leader drop from MEX at 3427$ and once this occurs this should drive prices on FINEX down to lows of 3380$ and MEX should be at 3250$ before we see support to 3610$ for MEX and 3800$ for FINEX.
REMEMBER, WE ARE STILL BEARISH IN THE LONG RUN WITH DOWN WARD TARGETS TO LOWS OF 1750$ BEFORE BTC FINDS ANY MAJOR REAL SUPPORT TO DRIVE IT INTO A BULL RUN!
PLEASE SEE RELATED IDEAS DOWN BELOW ;) & don't forget to stay up to date with our calls by following our Instagram and telegram channels down below AND ON OUR TRADINGVIEW PAGE!
