Different btc scenarios

aweaweawe

Comment:

The patterns that we see indicated here are cycles. We can see there is a trend that makes the next cycle shorter but overall the sentiment is bullish. I see this pattern being broken by corona. The blue square is our current cycle. You can clearly see that first green candle which is Jan 2020 is where that blue cycle was about to start and follow the pattern of rally-crash. However, the two red candles is where corona accelerated, countries went in lock down and global economy came to an abrupt stop. Then in April May Jun we see a rally, low resistance and main impact from corona measures is still not felt too much but the first signs start arising. This is were we are at the time I am writing this post of this post (Jul 1st 2020).

These are monthly candles.
The squares indicate the cycles that I am talking about, Light-blue one starting on August 1st 2020 and ending Feb/Mar 2021, is what I looks logical to me regarding the pattern.
Pink circle is the rally which we've had in the past three months, which looks like a dead cat bounce to me. It just fits the description.
Black lines indicate support-resistance and general short-term(under 5 years) trend.
Cyan and pink lines indicate the the possible lines off support we could reach in case corona vaccine will not be found by then.

It looks to me like the general trend here has been broken by corona and that this cycle(or maybe there will be a very last, short and volatile one starting around March 2021) will bring us, in the upcoming 6-7 months one of the following scenarios:
Green - most bullish
Yellow - neutral(accumulation)
Orange - support broken down, pattern broken by bears
Red - Most bearish

MacD - slightly bullish but mostly unindicative for the future. It tells us however that recent btc rallies from 2018 and on do not even come close to what has happened in fall 2017 regarding volatility(hype).
Divergence - Neutral, slightly bearish. Tells us that the trend is weak(similar level to the end off the first cycle, which was bear market) and given that we are in a bull market, that is a bad sign. Personally I see it as an indication towards orange or red line scenario.

Global economy is in a weird spot, most global markets show weak signs and Fed keeps printing. Signs about the full impact off corona are starting to appear so buckle up for a turbulent 6 months and be patient with your entries as we might be nearing new global balance in the money streams.

Comment:

3 months later, Still same outlook regarding corona situation. The short term bullish run looks to be over. Generally I feel the market is being manipulated right now. There is a clear correlation between USD coin rising and btc(together with many other major cryptos) crashing and vice versa. USD coin volume has made giant gains in volume(in 2020) for no particular reason. I think they are keeping up the market artificially. Started in July ending around now as I can't imagine they will manage to do this for ever. Looking forward for October's candle but for now I am waiting it out.