My early FA on BTC and the connection between it and the endless money supply that is going on in the world has so far worked.
My call at around 9.3k, after we made that first strong bounce after 6k was, that we will head back to 5k, since the RSI steadily was overbought after the QE of the ECB started. We had one rally after the other. Logically nothing can go up forever and since all the asset markets where manipulated to a certain extend we now have the pay-day. Still I'm very sure this correction is not over. Still I think a overall 90% correction is possible.
Lets look at the chart right now.
After we had that bounce from 6k we tried to start another bullish rally and it worked until the point we touched the earlier support-now resistance. A quick sell off at the 20th of february already told us what is going to happen: "Nothing is going through here". I guess a lot of people had the same idea and interpretation of this 1D candle that is roaring bearish. The rally after we stopped at 50% retracement level was almost half as strong as the former rally, again a bearish sign. What comes after is our current situation.
The Bulls tried to defend very weak a major uptrend line on the log chart:failed. Former 12k is far away now. This is a clear sign of a bearish market. The bounce off the support major uptrend line was very weak and only lasted one day.
We have a similar Situation right now. After we just reached the 38.2% Retracement after that second 12k attempt we dropped through another major support line without any sign of strenght at 7.5k.
What was former support became heavy resistance so we have now above us 7k and 7.5k Resistance + Major uptrend line on arithmetic chart + 21MA.
But what is with the 200MA? I think after the recent drop has found a sustainable floor we will have a rally to reach that 200MA once more before we finally drop to a critical level again. I don't know where the floor could be, nobody knows. All I know: We are in a bear-market. There are no big announcements, we just had a huge wave of new users which entered the market. Logically we'd need an exponential wave of new users (=money) to enter for another rally to that ATH.
The next high risk swing trade from another bounce we can expect at 6k, at 5k with maybe a bigger bounce. If we reach that levels I'll make the next analysis.
My call at around 9.3k, after we made that first strong bounce after 6k was, that we will head back to 5k, since the RSI steadily was overbought after the QE of the ECB started. We had one rally after the other. Logically nothing can go up forever and since all the asset markets where manipulated to a certain extend we now have the pay-day. Still I'm very sure this correction is not over. Still I think a overall 90% correction is possible.
Lets look at the chart right now.
After we had that bounce from 6k we tried to start another bullish rally and it worked until the point we touched the earlier support-now resistance. A quick sell off at the 20th of february already told us what is going to happen: "Nothing is going through here". I guess a lot of people had the same idea and interpretation of this 1D candle that is roaring bearish. The rally after we stopped at 50% retracement level was almost half as strong as the former rally, again a bearish sign. What comes after is our current situation.
The Bulls tried to defend very weak a major uptrend line on the log chart:failed. Former 12k is far away now. This is a clear sign of a bearish market. The bounce off the support major uptrend line was very weak and only lasted one day.
We have a similar Situation right now. After we just reached the 38.2% Retracement after that second 12k attempt we dropped through another major support line without any sign of strenght at 7.5k.
What was former support became heavy resistance so we have now above us 7k and 7.5k Resistance + Major uptrend line on arithmetic chart + 21MA.
But what is with the 200MA? I think after the recent drop has found a sustainable floor we will have a rally to reach that 200MA once more before we finally drop to a critical level again. I don't know where the floor could be, nobody knows. All I know: We are in a bear-market. There are no big announcements, we just had a huge wave of new users which entered the market. Logically we'd need an exponential wave of new users (=money) to enter for another rally to that ATH.
The next high risk swing trade from another bounce we can expect at 6k, at 5k with maybe a bigger bounce. If we reach that levels I'll make the next analysis.