Comparing and contrasting the Current Uptrend Against April

There are some annoying similarities and differences between this uptrend and the last one from April. Leading up to April we were in a very clear falling wedge pattern and we came out of it very impulsively into a series of rising wedges, nested within one another. This time the downward pattern is almost in between a downward channel with a very slight wedge. The move out has not been as impulsive and we are again in a rising wedge.

The two day chart, which cleans up the MACD entry signal (and reminder, MACD is better to let you know when to short, not long) clearly shows the uptrend lacks the strength of the last upswing. We are currently butting against the low we beat in April, so we shall see if breaking through that energizes this uptrend.

The lines on the MACD show what we would consider bullish divergence but as I linked in the related ideas, I don't think we should consider a descending triangle of this scale to have "bullish divergence" as the momentum is drifting to zero more than anything else. I put on a small trade to take advantage of this upswing but so far it looks like I am grabbing a nickel from in front of the steam roller. I think that playing this rising wedge very formally, with entries on momentum and stop losses to protect gains will at least get me closer to paying the rent and buying a nice steak.

Ultimately I feel this will break down in a lot more spectacular fashion than the April Run as we establish a lower high.