Three possible routes for bitcoin in the coming week(s)
Hi All! My last prediction ended up being pretty close - I had said we would see sub 8k in 24 hours while we were at 9300. After 24 hours, we had made it to 8,200, and we pierced below 8k another couple hours later.
As we can see, the downtrend channel is acting as strong resistance. The fib levels have been acting as small bounces on the way down - But even after briefly piercing the top of the channel the price was inevitably sucked back down into it. I think we will continue to see similar price action until we break into another bull market. I won't speculate as to whether a new bull market will sustain through to all-time highs - We can only read that as it develops.
However, I do believe that we have a few possible scenarios, as depicted above. I think it highly unlikely that we will be piercing the top of the channel with the current run. It looks like it is developing a bear flag and the volume isn't impressive. As such, I haven't even charted that as a possibility. This is how I see it:
Scenario 1 - (Red) After the top of the channel rejects price action, we head down to the next fib retracement ~ $7,250 - We reject the bounce here and keep going down to test 6k again. I think this has a 25% chance of happening. This includes the scenario where it has a small bounce back up to ~ $8,200 before heading back down with the next red arrow.
Scenario 2 - (Green) After the top of the channel rejects price action, we head down to the next fib retracement ~ $7,250 - We bounce here, head back up to ~ $8,200 and then succeed in piercing the top of the channel. This would be a bullish development. There would likely be a bit of hesitation at $8,200 that isn't depicted above, but if we breakout above, things will be looking good for a few weeks. I don't think this is likely - I give it 20%
Scenario 3 (Yellow)- After the top of the channel rejects price action, we head down to the next fib retracement ~ $7,250 - We bounce here, head back up to ~ $8,200 but are then rejected. We head back down but find support once again at $7,250, creating a double bottom. After bouncing between this support and the top of the channel, it finally pierces the top of the channel, then breaks the neckline of the double-bottom, sending us up. I find this the most likely scenario. As bearish as the market appears, too many people are expecting a retest of $6k. When there are expectations around bitcoin, it disobeys! I think people will start buying back in thinking they'll miss the boat, and we will be bullish once again. I give this one a 35% chance of occurring. This includes the scenario where it falls into a descending wedge as it is squeezed to where this fib level and the top of the channel meet before finally lifting off.
To summarize, I'm mostly bearish in the very short term but less so than most others are calling.
But what about the other 20%, you ask? Well, that's the chance that the market behaves totally irrationally and doesn't generally follow any of these scenarios. Good luck out there, and have fun. Please like so I can chat on the posts of others! I'm still 30 reputation shy..
**Don't listen to strangers on the Internet. If you lose money because you trusted my opinion, you made a bad judgment call. I'm not accountable for your actions :)**
As we can see, the downtrend channel is acting as strong resistance. The fib levels have been acting as small bounces on the way down - But even after briefly piercing the top of the channel the price was inevitably sucked back down into it. I think we will continue to see similar price action until we break into another bull market. I won't speculate as to whether a new bull market will sustain through to all-time highs - We can only read that as it develops.
However, I do believe that we have a few possible scenarios, as depicted above. I think it highly unlikely that we will be piercing the top of the channel with the current run. It looks like it is developing a bear flag and the volume isn't impressive. As such, I haven't even charted that as a possibility. This is how I see it:
Scenario 1 - (Red) After the top of the channel rejects price action, we head down to the next fib retracement ~ $7,250 - We reject the bounce here and keep going down to test 6k again. I think this has a 25% chance of happening. This includes the scenario where it has a small bounce back up to ~ $8,200 before heading back down with the next red arrow.
Scenario 2 - (Green) After the top of the channel rejects price action, we head down to the next fib retracement ~ $7,250 - We bounce here, head back up to ~ $8,200 and then succeed in piercing the top of the channel. This would be a bullish development. There would likely be a bit of hesitation at $8,200 that isn't depicted above, but if we breakout above, things will be looking good for a few weeks. I don't think this is likely - I give it 20%
Scenario 3 (Yellow)- After the top of the channel rejects price action, we head down to the next fib retracement ~ $7,250 - We bounce here, head back up to ~ $8,200 but are then rejected. We head back down but find support once again at $7,250, creating a double bottom. After bouncing between this support and the top of the channel, it finally pierces the top of the channel, then breaks the neckline of the double-bottom, sending us up. I find this the most likely scenario. As bearish as the market appears, too many people are expecting a retest of $6k. When there are expectations around bitcoin, it disobeys! I think people will start buying back in thinking they'll miss the boat, and we will be bullish once again. I give this one a 35% chance of occurring. This includes the scenario where it falls into a descending wedge as it is squeezed to where this fib level and the top of the channel meet before finally lifting off.
To summarize, I'm mostly bearish in the very short term but less so than most others are calling.
But what about the other 20%, you ask? Well, that's the chance that the market behaves totally irrationally and doesn't generally follow any of these scenarios. Good luck out there, and have fun. Please like so I can chat on the posts of others! I'm still 30 reputation shy..
**Don't listen to strangers on the Internet. If you lose money because you trusted my opinion, you made a bad judgment call. I'm not accountable for your actions :)**