Originally I had intended to post this analysis with the 4H timeframe and made a couple other errors in my previous post, this post now shows the charts as i'd originally intended.
BTCUSD showing hidden divergence in the bearish micro-trend *(1), formed on the 4H timeframe within Bitcoins' recent pullback from recent highs. This (hidden) divergence pattern is indicating a possible swing move to lower levels (expecting 30k area if this occurs) as a continuation of the bearish micro-trend within BTC's overarching bullish trend .
Should we see a downward swing come about in the near future, i expect that we will find support at 30k area, along with the possible formation of a bullish hidden divergence pattern forming on the 1H timeframe (outlined below). the combination of support being found and the recent move upward from recent lows will provide the egregious justification for overzealous bulls to load up on longs that just arent ready yet, after a short move to the upside where these bulls may be extremely confident and satisfied i expect a continuation of the downward move we've been seeing. See D1 chart below
Upon reaching 40-45k resistance; provided things climb steadily -sans any sudden bursts of volatility- to these levels, I expect, rather shockingly, yet another divergence pattern. This time on a longer and much more reliable timeframe, the D1, will foretell a fall to lower levels, possibly back to recent lows. I don't see the Bulls being as lucky as a fall merely to recent lows however, I seriously believe that we will not only reach 28k, but will see as low as 21, possibly stretching to 19k USD per BTC .
These ideas i have are tentative, i see them as likely to occur, not necessarily strong enough to attempt to trade each swing, but certainly strong enough for me to keep in mind and spend this much time (the most detail i've put into a post in years) posting about as warning for anyone willing to listen. Good luck to all
*(1) Micro-trend: I call this bearish swing from recent ATH's a "Micro-trend" because although the overall trend for BTCUSD is a bullish one, on lower timeframes we can isolate this pattern of lower lows and lower highs and treat is as a trend in and of itself, however we must bear in mind that it is the smaller of the trends, and whilst it can be treated as its own entity, we must respect the fact that it is part of the matrix that forms the entire bullish trend .
(2) I say uptrend here as an adjective somewhat reservedly, I use it because its the most relatable term for people and while technically there is an uptrend there -See *(1) above- this is only technically accurate if we take it down to a much lower timeframe like 5 or 15 minutes.
Here are some chart snapshots of the divergence patterns I'm seeing on various timeframes, as time goes on I will update this forecast with new snapshots of the charts on each of these timeframes to compare before and after.
4H Hidden divergence, indicating a continuation of the bear move to lower levels.
1H chart, expecting a hidden divergence pattern to form indicating an end to any downward move that may occur, bringing about a swing back upwards to higher levels, this would be in the "uptrend" *(2) formed since the breakout of the downward triangle shown
D1 Chart, Hidden divergence formation looking likely (The same pattern as shown on the 4H chart above), provided we don't see a sudden spike in volatility and price, if things stay stable and continue climbing as they are I expect that a hidden divergence pattern will form as price approaches the 40-45k area,
BTCUSD showing hidden divergence in the bearish micro-trend *(1), formed on the 4H timeframe within Bitcoins' recent pullback from recent highs. This (hidden) divergence pattern is indicating a possible swing move to lower levels (expecting 30k area if this occurs) as a continuation of the bearish micro-trend within BTC's overarching bullish trend .
Should we see a downward swing come about in the near future, i expect that we will find support at 30k area, along with the possible formation of a bullish hidden divergence pattern forming on the 1H timeframe (outlined below). the combination of support being found and the recent move upward from recent lows will provide the egregious justification for overzealous bulls to load up on longs that just arent ready yet, after a short move to the upside where these bulls may be extremely confident and satisfied i expect a continuation of the downward move we've been seeing. See D1 chart below
Upon reaching 40-45k resistance; provided things climb steadily -sans any sudden bursts of volatility- to these levels, I expect, rather shockingly, yet another divergence pattern. This time on a longer and much more reliable timeframe, the D1, will foretell a fall to lower levels, possibly back to recent lows. I don't see the Bulls being as lucky as a fall merely to recent lows however, I seriously believe that we will not only reach 28k, but will see as low as 21, possibly stretching to 19k USD per BTC .
These ideas i have are tentative, i see them as likely to occur, not necessarily strong enough to attempt to trade each swing, but certainly strong enough for me to keep in mind and spend this much time (the most detail i've put into a post in years) posting about as warning for anyone willing to listen. Good luck to all
*(1) Micro-trend: I call this bearish swing from recent ATH's a "Micro-trend" because although the overall trend for BTCUSD is a bullish one, on lower timeframes we can isolate this pattern of lower lows and lower highs and treat is as a trend in and of itself, however we must bear in mind that it is the smaller of the trends, and whilst it can be treated as its own entity, we must respect the fact that it is part of the matrix that forms the entire bullish trend .
(2) I say uptrend here as an adjective somewhat reservedly, I use it because its the most relatable term for people and while technically there is an uptrend there -See *(1) above- this is only technically accurate if we take it down to a much lower timeframe like 5 or 15 minutes.
Here are some chart snapshots of the divergence patterns I'm seeing on various timeframes, as time goes on I will update this forecast with new snapshots of the charts on each of these timeframes to compare before and after.
4H Hidden divergence, indicating a continuation of the bear move to lower levels.
1H chart, expecting a hidden divergence pattern to form indicating an end to any downward move that may occur, bringing about a swing back upwards to higher levels, this would be in the "uptrend" *(2) formed since the breakout of the downward triangle shown
D1 Chart, Hidden divergence formation looking likely (The same pattern as shown on the 4H chart above), provided we don't see a sudden spike in volatility and price, if things stay stable and continue climbing as they are I expect that a hidden divergence pattern will form as price approaches the 40-45k area,
Comment:
1H Chart divergence update, after the fall to 30k area, divergence pattern on the 1h chart has formed like predicted, whether or not btcusd finds support here and rises to 40-45 k is another matter, looking for bullish price action on 1h and 4 hr charts to signal an upward swing as possible,
