Misuse of the Best Parabolic Indicator for BTCUSD, the NVT

From time to time ideas are posted that use the NVT as a reason that people should be in short, or the price will retrace, and I feel that is dangerous advice. A quick look at the chart shows that the NVT is a decent indicator that the price action is about to go parabolic and near vertical. The blue lines show a large part of the parabolic move and the boxes show the parts of the parabolic move that occur when the NVT is red. The X shows when NVT went red but not parabolic and those were during the bear markets.
My main thought of this move is the price action isn’t vertical enough to short just yet, or sell just yet. I believe we are due for a parabolic move, and we will probably have a candle with a long wick and a long consolidation and retracement after that parabolic move.

I am not a financial adviser; I am just a guy that lost a lot of money trying to get good at TA. This isn’t a time to trade without a solid plan and I certainly don’t feel this move is parabolic enough to short just yet. If you see what I see we are clearly in a parabolic move that hasn’t gone near vertical yet, and we are not in one of the blue X marks that show a massive retracement inbound without a parabolic move.

My linked posts show a bigger picture of what targets I am looking at in the short term and longer terms. If you are in short, my
BTCUSD Shorts are about to get pounded" post show I think you are going to fund my gains. Nothing personal.

Trade closed: target reached:

The parabolic segment of this move is done.