How do we determine whether the Cryptomarket will rise or fall, at what point of the trend?
I will share my past experiences, thoughts and information I have compiled and evaluate the subject in terms of market psychology.
While explaining these as much as I can, I will make use of a lot of data and resources. Roughly speaking, market psychology is the whole of the phenomena that we feel emotionally in the face of the movements experienced and enable us to make decisions in line with them.
In other words, it is what we feel in response to price movements. Hence the enthusiasm we feel in response to rising prices in the market and the anger we feel in response to falling prices and losses. Crowds, masses, groups, whatever you call them, act on emotions and impulses.
They have a common collective behaviour, separate and distinct from what they feel individually. This is whatever the direction of the market is. Except for exceptions and a certain minority, it is not possible for investors to get rid of this and think differently.
You can sense this both from yourself and from your surroundings. When the markets are at their peak, investors are very happy, they invite everyone to join them in this happiness, their faces are smiling, and they believe that they will earn even more in time.
''After an event is repeated two or three times in a row, the "arterior cingulate" and "nucleus accumbens" parts of the human brain automatically expect it to be repeated. if it is repeated, a natural chemical "dopamine" is released and your brain is covered with a soft happiness.
So when a stock goes up several times in a row, you expect it to continue, and your brain chemistry changes as the stock goes up, making you feel very happy, so you become addicted to your predictions.
But when stocks fall, the resulting monetary losses activate the "amygdala" part of your brain - the part of the brain that drives fear and anxiety and activates the famous "fight or flight" response that occurs in all cornered animals.
Just as you can't stop your heart rate from rising when a fire alarm goes off, and you can't stop running backwards when a snake crosses your walkway, you can't stop being scared when stock prices fall.''
behavioural economics
after an event is repeated two or three times in a row, the "arterior cingulate" and "nucleus accumbens" parts of the human brain automatically expect it to repeat. if it repeats, it is a natural person.
This period of making easy and fast money makes people feel very good. People think that they are very successful and that this will continue. But this is an illusion.
The reason why the masses make big and fast money during this period is not their own success, but because the market allows it. The end of these events is usually full of bitter experiences.
The 2001 nasdaq crisis, the 2008 crisis, the cryptocurrencies in the last months of 2017, the 2021 bitcoin rally, and the current Turkey's stock are examples of this. Of course, before evaluating these, it is necessary to know what the stock market is, who wins, what is its real face.
One of the biggest misconceptions about the stock market is that the new entrant or the less experienced person makes the evaluation only within the period he entered. This is a mistake, what should be done is to analyse the relevant market with its entire history.
You've heard the saying, "It's increased 30 times in 2 years, if it goes another 10 times from here. Probably not. This 10 times more thought has been formed in line with the above-mentioned and is not rational. ''If we had bought that coin or stock in time, we were rich now.''
This phrase is also very familiar.
Those who invest uninformedly with the discourses of others, people who think that they are distributed free of charge on the stock exchange, crypto, those who think it is a place of easy fast money folding are always in the last link of the chain and are doomed to lose.
What has invited these people to the stock market recently is the enthusiasm experienced in the markets. Think about the motivation of people jumping from the top of the shares. It's going up, so let me get in and win.
From Daniel Kahneman's book Thinking fast and slow:
''People have the illusion that they are 'making accurate predictions'.'' One of the relevant chapters is below:
"So the success of a buy-sell is not due to skill, but to luck. And even when they are presented with evidence of this fact, they ignore it and continue to live the same way.
The rest of the story is even more interesting.
Algorithms that use only 2 parameters in predictions that largely depend on luck are more successful against people who are fed with more parameters/information.
Because human thoughts vary too much according to their body chemistry,
and as they are fed with more information, their self-confidence and therefore the risks they take increase and they lose more easily.
That means this,
For example, when betting between teams x-y, a simple algorithm that calculates the probability of team x winning based on x's score in the last 5 matches and the score in the last 5 seasons against team y,
In the long run, it is more successful than a person who knows these two pieces of information and the number of injuries, the weather, the number of fans and who the referee is in that match.
Therefore, algorithms using Markov chains make money, while amateurs who are influenced by the sunny weather and make more optimistic choices lose money all the time. Another conclusion to be drawn:
Machines are more successful with less information. This makes them superior to humans. Humans are still incapable of comprehending - accepting - even the statistical facts that are shown to them. we are still prisoners of the illusions that our minds play on us.''
People are psychologically influenced by their environment. Explanation: when the stock market was at 1000 points, no one was interested, but now everyone has the desire to become an investor. The same goes for bitcoin.
People who I could not convince to buy in the $ 3000-5000 USD range started to ask if it would go between 50-69k USD.
The same people now think that bitcoin should never be bought at 16 thousand.
All these are not calculated thoughts, they are purely impulsive behaviours. The result of these behaviours is to lose.
As long as people and markets exist, these cycles will always continue. There will always be new winners and losers. This is the purpose of the stock market.
Now, what are the above-mentioned things useful for us? With all this information, we are trying to find out where we are in the market relative to the peak and when we should exit. In other words, when to buy and when to sell, to find the time to sell.
When does the bear market (bear period) start? It starts 1 candle after the peak candle. It is the best selling place. That is, the peak.
We use technical analysis, the internal dynamics of the market and the psychology of this market to identify the peak areas (i.e. the best selling points).
Remember, we are not trying to analyse point by point. We are just trying to more or less predict the zones and maximise our own profits. Trying to find peaks and troughs is unnecessary and foolish.
Buying at average cost and selling at average cost will give you the most effortless profit.
Some wrong moves and behaviour patterns that prevent winning:
-Rushing to win.
-Not having information about the market, not learning.
-Being hopeless and negative due to constant losing (not looking objectively).
-Looking for back doors, trying to pull the gain forward (emotional or sentimental trade, or margin)
-Constantly listening to others without doing enough research, losing and blaming them for mistakes,
-Excessive enthusiasm at the top, excessive fear and anger at the bottom.
Those who follow the whole market only news-oriented.
These can multiply even more. People with these behaviour patterns cannot make money from the market.
You have heard it everywhere: "The stock market is a means of transferring money from impatient people to patient people". You will realise the truth of this saying as your experience increases.
Of course, this alone is not enough, there are many factors such as the right timing, the right stock coin selection, the moves you will make in the uptrend. But one of the basic disciplines you need to have is patience.
Let's go back to psychology and emotion. The masses in the stock market (small investors); are guided and manipulated through emotions. In other words, it is to get your consent on an action that you will not do and to make you take that action.
Manipulation is to persuade you for a transaction that is to your detriment. Through various methods, the money in the hands of small investors is collected in the hands of large investors, capital groups, new rich people. In other words, wealth transfer takes place.
Thanks to many stock exchanges, commodities, cryptos, parity in the world, these wealth transfers are taking place at any moment.
Examine all world markets from past to present, it will be more understandable.
Why am I telling so many negative things? Because in order to win the game, we need to know what the game is, what the rules are. You can get away from the news, fuds, psychological attrition movements, manipulations, knowing the rules of the game.
It's a kind of self-protection. Once you lose, it's hard to overcome the psychology of it. Emotions come into play. You can be a prisoner of ambition and anger. So you can know these and try not to lose from the beginning or try to get out with less damage.
The stock market is an environment where the right information is very valuable, because we come across the most information pollution, ignorant comments, and directive content on the stock market. Even twitter alone is enough for this hollow content.
I mentioned the part about the peaks. Enough of this negative information. I apologise that the topics may be a bit intertwined. If we come to the bottom points, the opposite of these are experienced. I have talked about them at length before, they can be read.
Let me make a few recommendations. Choose the people you care about carefully. No one has a magic wand or secret information that will make you 100x. Stay away from dishonest people, ignore duplicate scam accounts.
There are plenty of paid and unpaid trainings (stock market, crypto) on the internet, spend time on them. Browse books written about the stock market. Try to fill yourself with knowledge. On fundamental and technical analysis, investor psychology,
Try to learn about behavioural economics (economics), about the basics of the stock market. Don't depend on anyone, but try to get information from everyone.
Also, get to know a little bit about what you are investing in. Do not jump in with gas, with a moment of excitement, just because someone said so. Give importance to past experiences. A lot of experience is important in the stock market.
Think medium and long term, not short term.
It is not important to earn in a month in a week. It is important to be able to earn and protect it in a year or two years. Consider it as investment and accumulation, not gambling.
What needs to be done to win is plain and simple, what is difficult is to apply them.
I will share my past experiences, thoughts and information I have compiled and evaluate the subject in terms of market psychology.
While explaining these as much as I can, I will make use of a lot of data and resources. Roughly speaking, market psychology is the whole of the phenomena that we feel emotionally in the face of the movements experienced and enable us to make decisions in line with them.
In other words, it is what we feel in response to price movements. Hence the enthusiasm we feel in response to rising prices in the market and the anger we feel in response to falling prices and losses. Crowds, masses, groups, whatever you call them, act on emotions and impulses.
They have a common collective behaviour, separate and distinct from what they feel individually. This is whatever the direction of the market is. Except for exceptions and a certain minority, it is not possible for investors to get rid of this and think differently.
You can sense this both from yourself and from your surroundings. When the markets are at their peak, investors are very happy, they invite everyone to join them in this happiness, their faces are smiling, and they believe that they will earn even more in time.
''After an event is repeated two or three times in a row, the "arterior cingulate" and "nucleus accumbens" parts of the human brain automatically expect it to be repeated. if it is repeated, a natural chemical "dopamine" is released and your brain is covered with a soft happiness.
So when a stock goes up several times in a row, you expect it to continue, and your brain chemistry changes as the stock goes up, making you feel very happy, so you become addicted to your predictions.
But when stocks fall, the resulting monetary losses activate the "amygdala" part of your brain - the part of the brain that drives fear and anxiety and activates the famous "fight or flight" response that occurs in all cornered animals.
Just as you can't stop your heart rate from rising when a fire alarm goes off, and you can't stop running backwards when a snake crosses your walkway, you can't stop being scared when stock prices fall.''
behavioural economics
after an event is repeated two or three times in a row, the "arterior cingulate" and "nucleus accumbens" parts of the human brain automatically expect it to repeat. if it repeats, it is a natural person.
This period of making easy and fast money makes people feel very good. People think that they are very successful and that this will continue. But this is an illusion.
The reason why the masses make big and fast money during this period is not their own success, but because the market allows it. The end of these events is usually full of bitter experiences.
The 2001 nasdaq crisis, the 2008 crisis, the cryptocurrencies in the last months of 2017, the 2021 bitcoin rally, and the current Turkey's stock are examples of this. Of course, before evaluating these, it is necessary to know what the stock market is, who wins, what is its real face.
One of the biggest misconceptions about the stock market is that the new entrant or the less experienced person makes the evaluation only within the period he entered. This is a mistake, what should be done is to analyse the relevant market with its entire history.
You've heard the saying, "It's increased 30 times in 2 years, if it goes another 10 times from here. Probably not. This 10 times more thought has been formed in line with the above-mentioned and is not rational. ''If we had bought that coin or stock in time, we were rich now.''
This phrase is also very familiar.
Those who invest uninformedly with the discourses of others, people who think that they are distributed free of charge on the stock exchange, crypto, those who think it is a place of easy fast money folding are always in the last link of the chain and are doomed to lose.
What has invited these people to the stock market recently is the enthusiasm experienced in the markets. Think about the motivation of people jumping from the top of the shares. It's going up, so let me get in and win.
From Daniel Kahneman's book Thinking fast and slow:
''People have the illusion that they are 'making accurate predictions'.'' One of the relevant chapters is below:
"So the success of a buy-sell is not due to skill, but to luck. And even when they are presented with evidence of this fact, they ignore it and continue to live the same way.
The rest of the story is even more interesting.
Algorithms that use only 2 parameters in predictions that largely depend on luck are more successful against people who are fed with more parameters/information.
Because human thoughts vary too much according to their body chemistry,
and as they are fed with more information, their self-confidence and therefore the risks they take increase and they lose more easily.
That means this,
For example, when betting between teams x-y, a simple algorithm that calculates the probability of team x winning based on x's score in the last 5 matches and the score in the last 5 seasons against team y,
In the long run, it is more successful than a person who knows these two pieces of information and the number of injuries, the weather, the number of fans and who the referee is in that match.
Therefore, algorithms using Markov chains make money, while amateurs who are influenced by the sunny weather and make more optimistic choices lose money all the time. Another conclusion to be drawn:
Machines are more successful with less information. This makes them superior to humans. Humans are still incapable of comprehending - accepting - even the statistical facts that are shown to them. we are still prisoners of the illusions that our minds play on us.''
People are psychologically influenced by their environment. Explanation: when the stock market was at 1000 points, no one was interested, but now everyone has the desire to become an investor. The same goes for bitcoin.
People who I could not convince to buy in the $ 3000-5000 USD range started to ask if it would go between 50-69k USD.
The same people now think that bitcoin should never be bought at 16 thousand.
All these are not calculated thoughts, they are purely impulsive behaviours. The result of these behaviours is to lose.
As long as people and markets exist, these cycles will always continue. There will always be new winners and losers. This is the purpose of the stock market.
Now, what are the above-mentioned things useful for us? With all this information, we are trying to find out where we are in the market relative to the peak and when we should exit. In other words, when to buy and when to sell, to find the time to sell.
When does the bear market (bear period) start? It starts 1 candle after the peak candle. It is the best selling place. That is, the peak.
We use technical analysis, the internal dynamics of the market and the psychology of this market to identify the peak areas (i.e. the best selling points).
Remember, we are not trying to analyse point by point. We are just trying to more or less predict the zones and maximise our own profits. Trying to find peaks and troughs is unnecessary and foolish.
Buying at average cost and selling at average cost will give you the most effortless profit.
Some wrong moves and behaviour patterns that prevent winning:
-Rushing to win.
-Not having information about the market, not learning.
-Being hopeless and negative due to constant losing (not looking objectively).
-Looking for back doors, trying to pull the gain forward (emotional or sentimental trade, or margin)
-Constantly listening to others without doing enough research, losing and blaming them for mistakes,
-Excessive enthusiasm at the top, excessive fear and anger at the bottom.
Those who follow the whole market only news-oriented.
These can multiply even more. People with these behaviour patterns cannot make money from the market.
You have heard it everywhere: "The stock market is a means of transferring money from impatient people to patient people". You will realise the truth of this saying as your experience increases.
Of course, this alone is not enough, there are many factors such as the right timing, the right stock coin selection, the moves you will make in the uptrend. But one of the basic disciplines you need to have is patience.
Let's go back to psychology and emotion. The masses in the stock market (small investors); are guided and manipulated through emotions. In other words, it is to get your consent on an action that you will not do and to make you take that action.
Manipulation is to persuade you for a transaction that is to your detriment. Through various methods, the money in the hands of small investors is collected in the hands of large investors, capital groups, new rich people. In other words, wealth transfer takes place.
Thanks to many stock exchanges, commodities, cryptos, parity in the world, these wealth transfers are taking place at any moment.
Examine all world markets from past to present, it will be more understandable.
Why am I telling so many negative things? Because in order to win the game, we need to know what the game is, what the rules are. You can get away from the news, fuds, psychological attrition movements, manipulations, knowing the rules of the game.
It's a kind of self-protection. Once you lose, it's hard to overcome the psychology of it. Emotions come into play. You can be a prisoner of ambition and anger. So you can know these and try not to lose from the beginning or try to get out with less damage.
The stock market is an environment where the right information is very valuable, because we come across the most information pollution, ignorant comments, and directive content on the stock market. Even twitter alone is enough for this hollow content.
I mentioned the part about the peaks. Enough of this negative information. I apologise that the topics may be a bit intertwined. If we come to the bottom points, the opposite of these are experienced. I have talked about them at length before, they can be read.
Let me make a few recommendations. Choose the people you care about carefully. No one has a magic wand or secret information that will make you 100x. Stay away from dishonest people, ignore duplicate scam accounts.
There are plenty of paid and unpaid trainings (stock market, crypto) on the internet, spend time on them. Browse books written about the stock market. Try to fill yourself with knowledge. On fundamental and technical analysis, investor psychology,
Try to learn about behavioural economics (economics), about the basics of the stock market. Don't depend on anyone, but try to get information from everyone.
Also, get to know a little bit about what you are investing in. Do not jump in with gas, with a moment of excitement, just because someone said so. Give importance to past experiences. A lot of experience is important in the stock market.
Think medium and long term, not short term.
It is not important to earn in a month in a week. It is important to be able to earn and protect it in a year or two years. Consider it as investment and accumulation, not gambling.
What needs to be done to win is plain and simple, what is difficult is to apply them.
