3 scenarios for BTC price with probabilities and entry points
Let’s face it, nobody knows the future. It may be shaped by so many events that we can and cannot predict. The best thing we can do is to identify the most likely scenarios and to have a solid action plan in case each of them plays out. Related to BTC price I see 3 main scenarios:
1. The upswing (25% chance)
61k was the bottom of this pullback, BTC breaks ATH somewhere around the halving, then the whole crypto market lanunches. The music keeps playing, liquidity is coming in, institutions go risk-on and buy more and more Bitcoin ETFs, retail FOMO-in and ape into the smelliest shitcoins. BTC goes to the Moon, ETH – to the Mars altcoins – to distant stars and everybody is making money with 100x leveraged longs and a balanced portfolio of dog coins on every blockchain available.
I think some variation of that scenario is generally possible, however not the most likely, so I give it 25%. It is also important to mention that this scenario is not the most positive. This cycle still due to a major correction. If this is not be the one, then we might see it very soon or it could be the last extension of the wave 5 in this cycle and soon everything will dump again.
2. Correction before the upswing (50% chance)
BTC has another leg down coming soon, but soon after the halving it breaks ATH again. In March the fear/greed index became euphoric again first time since Novemer 2021. And it often happened in BTC history that before going into the parabolic bull market, the market had a good shakeout of weak hands. I don’t buy the talks that because the institutions are officially on board now, we will not see such drawdowns in this cycle. I think those institutions are smart and know very well how to manipulate the market. They want customers to keep coming, but for smart money to buy more, they need to have good entry prices and since the supply is shrinking, they need retail investors to be scared again and start selling. This scenario implies that smart money and diamond hands have the best gains. I would give it a 50% chance.
3. Black swan (25% chance)
Recent history taught us that black swan events are almost regular now. Nothing from the kind of global hacker attack, blackouts, disease x, economy depression, WW3, alien invasion, civil war in major countries or zombie apocalypse have 0 probability. Of course different events would have different effects on the markets, but all of them would cause some shock and in many of these scenarios people will have more important things worry about than buying memecoins on DEXes. I’m 100% sure some black swan would appear in the future, but will it happen in 2024? Maybe, let’s give it a 25% chance.
So we have 25-50-25. what do we do with that info?
Since both 1 and 2 scenarios imply that crypto will pump more soon, it would be wise to keep holding most of the portfolio of BTC and alts. If scenario 2 plays out and we see BTC <60k, consider adding up to some positions in their buy zones. For BTC it would be 50-53k, 40-45k, 35-38k, however I don’t really think it would go that low. If it does, the big support would be around 25k and it means we are most likely in Scenario 3.
Since scenario 3 in my view still has a pretty high probability, I would take some profits now and turn a comfortable portion of those into the most anonymous self-custodial form of currency - physical cash.
I’m just sharing my opinion, nothing here is a financial or investment advice, please always DYOR and stay safe.
1. The upswing (25% chance)
61k was the bottom of this pullback, BTC breaks ATH somewhere around the halving, then the whole crypto market lanunches. The music keeps playing, liquidity is coming in, institutions go risk-on and buy more and more Bitcoin ETFs, retail FOMO-in and ape into the smelliest shitcoins. BTC goes to the Moon, ETH – to the Mars altcoins – to distant stars and everybody is making money with 100x leveraged longs and a balanced portfolio of dog coins on every blockchain available.
I think some variation of that scenario is generally possible, however not the most likely, so I give it 25%. It is also important to mention that this scenario is not the most positive. This cycle still due to a major correction. If this is not be the one, then we might see it very soon or it could be the last extension of the wave 5 in this cycle and soon everything will dump again.
2. Correction before the upswing (50% chance)
BTC has another leg down coming soon, but soon after the halving it breaks ATH again. In March the fear/greed index became euphoric again first time since Novemer 2021. And it often happened in BTC history that before going into the parabolic bull market, the market had a good shakeout of weak hands. I don’t buy the talks that because the institutions are officially on board now, we will not see such drawdowns in this cycle. I think those institutions are smart and know very well how to manipulate the market. They want customers to keep coming, but for smart money to buy more, they need to have good entry prices and since the supply is shrinking, they need retail investors to be scared again and start selling. This scenario implies that smart money and diamond hands have the best gains. I would give it a 50% chance.
3. Black swan (25% chance)
Recent history taught us that black swan events are almost regular now. Nothing from the kind of global hacker attack, blackouts, disease x, economy depression, WW3, alien invasion, civil war in major countries or zombie apocalypse have 0 probability. Of course different events would have different effects on the markets, but all of them would cause some shock and in many of these scenarios people will have more important things worry about than buying memecoins on DEXes. I’m 100% sure some black swan would appear in the future, but will it happen in 2024? Maybe, let’s give it a 25% chance.
So we have 25-50-25. what do we do with that info?
Since both 1 and 2 scenarios imply that crypto will pump more soon, it would be wise to keep holding most of the portfolio of BTC and alts. If scenario 2 plays out and we see BTC <60k, consider adding up to some positions in their buy zones. For BTC it would be 50-53k, 40-45k, 35-38k, however I don’t really think it would go that low. If it does, the big support would be around 25k and it means we are most likely in Scenario 3.
Since scenario 3 in my view still has a pretty high probability, I would take some profits now and turn a comfortable portion of those into the most anonymous self-custodial form of currency - physical cash.
I’m just sharing my opinion, nothing here is a financial or investment advice, please always DYOR and stay safe.
Comment:
It looks like we are heading towards scenario #2. The low of 60760 was broken, however with all the positive news this correction may be not as deep, so if you stay on the sidelines waiting for the perfect entry, you could miss the upswing. I would add another buy limit at about 56-57k, since it is a 50% of the previous wave and it would be good if the price touches it before going up.
Comment:
Ok, we have briefly touched the buy zone 0 and quickly bounced back up. That is good, however downward momentum can continue after retracement. If you took a position around that buy zone, you may set a stop loss slightly above the entry price. If we return there, then we most likely will go to lower zones.
Peace
Peace