BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Breaking out of triangle usually is continuation trend. In our case its downtrend. The way i see it more likely that we first go downwards. Targets are :around 10k, around 9k and then we test 7.8-8k. After that targets are 12.5 and 14-14.5
Comment: Going down as we expected. Targets are the same.
Comment: First target 10k is reached. Tether situation will speed up current downtrend and we'll see next targets soon
Comment: Chart patterns say that we might get dead cat bounce to 11k area and continue downtrend.
Comment: Note that this is just a possibility. Doesnt mean it will happen for sure. Nothing is certain in cryptomarkets
Comment: 9k and 8k targets are reached.
Comment: next target is 10.3-10.5. but we can easily drop from there to to 8k (or even 7.2-7.3) as well before going to new highs.
Comment: Something to note. Look at this red arrow that I just drew to show how today's 8180 bottom wasnt something made up. It touches trend line from week's old chart perfectly.
Comment: Goin down to 8k. 7.2-7.3 is definately possible
Comment: BOOM!
Comment: Boom means we are basically fucked. Anyways we reached our 8k target, touched 200MA at 7.8. But this is far from over. Yes we can bounce a bit on low volumes aka fakeout aka bull trap. But we will go lower. 7.5-6.5 is the area. We are bearish af right now and whales will push down the price to the point where its comfortable to buy for them and will rekt more longs on the way there. And then we will probably have a jesus candle. Gl!
Comment: Sorry guys. Upper trend line was moved somehow. This is the right chart now.
Comment: Next targets are: 6300 and 5400. We might bounce hard from there. Dont panic. Drop that we see now is the only way it has to happen. Whales trying to make plebs to sell their coins at a loss. There's definately accumulation is goin on. Gl!
Comment: This is weird with charts again. Last update ended up in comment section with right chart and in update section its a weeks old chat. LOL. OK then here's the right chart))
Comment: Also the current bounce is short term. So dont fomo too much. If u scalp remember to take profits. Dont be greedy. We are still bearish and we are goin down.
Comment: 6300 target reached
Comment: We touched 6k. Retest and possible 5400 is still in play
Comment: Hello everyone. I have a good news and a bad news. First good news. As i see it there's 15-20% chance that we can see 9-10k price levels. Not much but its a good chance to close longs for people who are still underwater. The bad news is that downtrend continues. Targets are 7.5k, 6k, around 5k. 6k is a strong support level but if it breaks then yeah 5k ish here we come.
Comment: Damn. This is such a perfect bull trap. 9-10k range is where plebs fomo and think it's time to buy and it looks so bullish. But then u dump it to the ground (aka 6k retest or lower) and make all them plebs who bought there to panic sell to the same whales on the way down. That's exactly what i would do if i was a market maker. Actually that's how market works. Be careful guys. I warned u...
Comment: Maximum where we can go here as i see it is around 10.5. (agree there's room to go to 11k but it is very unlikely) So im telling u now sell, sell hard. Take profits. U can buy cheaper after. Here's our targets to look for: 7.7-7.8, 6.2, 5.4 and possible wick down to 4-4.5. Look at daily. No volume. Decreasing volume. Whales didnt bought enough on our last dip. Believe me when they will u'll see the real jesus candle. This is how market works. Dont listen to those "experts" who telling u now to buy cuz its so bullish etc. Cuz it looks bullish. Thats what market makers want u to think/see. Remember 11k to 6k slow bleed? That's what we will see again. GL!
Comment: Looks like market makers want to trap more buyers and 11k wasn't enough. So to do that price has to go up. Therefore we have to adjust our numbers a bit. It can go up to 12.8. But it changes nothing. I'm expecting a correction. First targets are: 9.5-9.8, 8-8.3. Lower targets as mentioned in previous update but we have to see volume to confirm we go there. How to do that? It's not so hard really. Just look at selling volume. If it increasing then u can say for sure that market makers want to push price down more so they can benefit from their shorts and buy back cheaper after. So watch closely there and be careful. Don't buy back with 100% but scale in slowly to buy more at lower prices. Another thing i have to say that to confirm that trend is bullish and bottom is in we have to close above 12.8 with confidence and good buying volume. But for now that scenario is only a possibility and i see the same patterns we had when we pumped to 20k and then dumped to 10k back in december.
Comment: Here we go. Fasten your seatbelts!
Comment: Downtrend confirmed. We can go to 9.6 and bounce to 10.4-10.5 after. Then continue to dump. So targets are 9.6, 8.8-8.9, 8-8.2, 7.5, possible 6-6.5 (perfect range to add to long) and 5.5.
Comment: Note that we might not dump very fast. It's to easy for us to buy the dips if it will be like that. We will dump with some bounces for sure for maximum pain.
Comment: Right. Something i forgot. Other than trend lines and ichimoku u can see important levels on fib retracement i drew on last chart. Zoom in. Btw guys i would really appreciate thumbs up if u like and agree with this idea. Means a lot. Thanks.
Comment: Bounced from 9.6 support 382 fib retracement as expected.
Comment: And 10.4 rejection. Today is playing perfectly so far just as we set our target on feb 21. Good stuff. More to come!
Comment: Look at that 1m candle. Wow!
Comment: That was more than 2k btc sold in 1 minute.
Comment: Gotta love limit orders to catch wicks like that guys. Easy money!
Comment: Nothing changes. Still a downtrend. Atm we a going to 9200-9250. Next: 8.8-8.9, 8.2, 7.2-7.5. Bounces are possible from any of those supports. 8.2 is key and we should look closely there at lower timeframes, volume and if big buys gonna be made, to decide what to do next. Will probably update here when we get there.
Comment: Confirmation of downtrend on 4h. Possible bounce to 11.2 with continuation drop to 10.2-10.3 wich are good levels to bounce. On daily keeping a close eye on 9.2-9.3.
Comment: Very interesting day! Binance API keys hack speeded thing up. Our possible targets are: 9.3-9.4 (already touched 9.4 but will come back there most likely), 8-8.2, 7.4-7.5. Also 9.5 is historically pretty strong level so bounces from there are possible as well.
Comment: Looking for 8.8-8.9 there.
Comment: 8.8-8.9 is just a short term target for possible bounce. Targets are the same as i described in update yesterday
Comment: Here's two scenarios i can see us going right now. Enjoy!
Comment: Our yesterday's scenarios talking. 1st one: "I'm trying to bounce. I'm trying!' 2nd one: "Not gonna happen!" ))
Comment: Update is not needed since we follow the scenario but instead here's this video. It says it all. Watch it. Priceless 2 min of laugh in your life.))
Comment: BTC is pretty much ranging in 8.4-8.5 and around 10k area atm. There's clear signs of accumulation. You can play the range and scalp for sure. For longer term trades this is a no trade zone. In uptrend bulls make profits, in downtrend bears make profits but in flat like that both sides can lose.
Comment: Our 8k target was reached and we came close to 7.5 target (bounced around 7.6ish). After this bounce here are the price levels to look for: 7.7-7.8, 7.4-7.5, 7k. A good bounce from 6.7-6.8 to 8k area is possible. If we break 6.4-6.5 we are going to retest 6k and if we close below then we will see lower prices. Btw look at this pink arrow. Bounced exactly from trendline.
Comment: There's a possibility of us going to 7.8-8k or even to 7.5, bounce close to 9k area and continue to go down.
Comment: Ok i guess some explaining is needed to charts posted above. So u can see falling wedge on 4h. Reversal pattern that usually ends up with upward movement. Now this is only a short term so dont get your hopes on it. Possible scenario here is going to 7.3-7.5 area and bouncing to 8.2-8.3, maybe to 8.6. After that we continue going down. Long term targets are the same as mentioned in march 15 update.
Comment: Our scenario is playing out as expected. We saw it coming. Nothing extraordinary just needed some push wich G20 news gave. After this bounce prepare to dump futher. We are very bearish overall.
Comment: Many people ask what can we expect now. Well targets are the same as they were in march 15's update. Dump to 7.3 and bounce to 9k are scenario played out (and still is) prefectly. The only question now is where the bounce ends so we can continue to dump. Well it's pretty much current price levels we are now on wich is around 9k, then its 9.4-9.5 and 9.7-9.8 or in other words close to 10k. This is the potential of the bounce and as u can see it doesnt really matter in a long run especially if u took profits and in fiat now cuz risk/reward ratio is not the same as it were when u longed 7.3-7.5. But If u are looking for entry to short that's another thing and its 9-10k area but we might not just get as high as 10k so we'll see. When drop continues it wont be free wall and there will be bounces. So what u can do if u day trading is make entries at 8.3-8.5 and around 7.9 with tight SL and TP in 9-10k range. Midterm it's 7.3-7.5 and around 6.9 entries with tight SL as well and same TP targets as mentioned above. Long term its 6.3-6.4 and 6k entries with SL. Why do i say entries with stop losses? Because its the only way u can trade in this market now. Its not bullish as pump to 20k run anymore when u can enter at any time and be a winner cuz price will go up anyways. So when u enter with SL close to 6k prices and it will go lower (and it very likely will this time) your stop loss will trigger and u can reenter cheaper. Or if u are playing longterm and just looking to "buy the dips" as they say u can just build your long position by starting scaling in as we approach closer to 6k area. Well that was a big update i wrote as i see now. It was mostly trading strategy but hope it helps.
Comment: To question about 50 and 200 MA cross. The thing about death cross that everyone is talking about is exactly that everyone is talking about it! Its all over the internet. And we all know what news are made for. It is an important TA event tho but i prefer to look at another chart patterns and indicators in curretn circumstances.
Comment: For all who pm me with question " Where do we go now?" i'll answer read my last (the big one) update and trade accordingly. Entries, TP and SL it's all there. As for shortterm what i can see there's good possibility we bounce around 7.5 (might be a few hundred off) to 9k again.
Comment: Not much movement for the past couple of days. What i basically do is longing support and shorting resistance in 6.5-7.2 range wich happens to be between two trendlines. Btc respecting trendlnes pretty well. Breaking out of this range will determine futher movement. Also those small bounces cooling off RSI levels so there's a room to go down for sure. We can't go below 6.4-6.5 for now because there's a lot of buying interest close to 6k and when we finally go to 6k it might not be the bottom and MM's will try to push further down. Bounces to 7k area happen only to squeeze shorts pretty much.
Comment: You see that's what i mean - shorts squeeze.
Comment: Can u see this pattern?
Comment: Most likely scenario.
Comment: Some explanations. Breaking of triangle will be most likely bearish. Circle is a bounce area.
Comment: Breaking down of triangle was very possible scenario but less likely scenario played out wich is breaking up due to the reason that there were too many shorts to squeeze. Market makers couldn't resist it's so much money in there. They pushed it up, traders like us saw a technical breakout and jumped in, shorts started to liquidate. You saw the rest.
Comment: We can go to 8.3-8.5, possibly to 9k, from current price levels or might dip to 7.3-7.4 before that. After that - down we go. I dont see trend reversal so far.
Comment: BTC is no trade zone right now. Pretty choppy. Risk/reward is not so good. Personally trading alts atm.
Comment: As i said in april 12 update we can go to 8.5 and 9k area. We are at 8.5 now and more likely than not will push to 8.9-9k (200ema on 12h and where trend lines crossing). Then i expect a scenario where we reject and go to 7.3-7.5 and a possible bounce back to 8.5 after. I dont say this is what 100% will happen cuz we as a traders can only see possible outcomes with high or low probabilies and in my opinion or at least what i see on a chart this scenario has a good chance to play out.
Comment: One of the trendlines was a bit off. Here's a fixed chart. What can u do... i like clean charts... Also here's a daily chart.
Comment: Targets i see on 12h chart: 8.3-8.4 and 7800-7850 (shortterm); there's also more midterm target 6.6. On 1D chart i also see 7.3-7.5. Scenario where we go to 10-11k all of a sudden is possible of cource but possibility is very low in my opinion.
Comment: For those of u who ask me why am i so sure it will go one or the other way here's my answer. I never say "btc will go this way for sure". As i mentioned in one of the recent updates there's never one scenario. There's few (usually two obviously) and our goal is not predict the price but to see wich scenario is more likely to play out. Doesnt matter if less likely scenario will take its place cuz as far as u play the ones when odds in your favour u will be ok and making profits in a long run. You cant win every trade but u can win most of them. Charts alway say the story where price will probably go and our task is to read them correctly. Lets take scenario from april 11 for example. We were likely to break down from triangle but we didnt cuz market makers needed to squeeze shorts and it was not so hard to do by opening margin longs given that we were on the verge of technical breakout and we saw overall domino effect its all caused. Now let's take today's point of view on the btc. Im not sayin we will go down and thats it right? We are likely to do so based on what i see on chart but that doesnt mean we cant break upwards either. Why would we do that? Well what if market makers want to prolong the bull trap? They can totally do that. And i do think its a bull trap until proven otherwise (trend reversal). So what do we do here as a traders? We play the scenario that has higher probability to happen. If we are wrong then fine! Thats why we put stop losses. Close the trade and move on to the next one. Doesnt matter if the price goes up or down. Get into trade, ride it and take profits. Wichever way it goes u just act accordingly. And if some trader/analyst tells u he knows/feels/sees in wich direction it will go no matter what, run. Just trade the chart and dont listen to predictions. We are playing the odds not predicting the future. Also this is an idea (not a signals or w/e channel) that u have to think about and go from there not just trade from everything i say. Use it for better understanding of the market but trade your own chart.
Comment: Here's nearterm scenario i see. We are going down to 8.6 and 8.3-8.4 with possible (!) bounce to 9.2-9.3. But if current 12h candle closes above 9.2 then we can see 9.6 (maybe a bit higher) and then we continue to go down with same targets that were mentioned above.
Comment: So 8.6k target was almost hit and bounced to 9k area. I can see us ranging for some time at 8.5-9, 8.3-8.7 and possibly going to 7.8 after.
Comment: Here's a possible scenario that might play out. Pullback to 9.2-9.4 (with some chance to test 8.8-8.9 aswell), bounce to 10.5-10.7.
Comment: Interesting pattern. Might be "bull" macd fakeout. Also look at RSI pattern... Thinking we can go to 7.8-7.9 and bounce there. If not its pretty bad...
Comment: Here u can see how accurately we are kissing trendlines and EMA's (12 and 26). Isnt it beautiful?
Comment: Good hourly volume on the bounce. Here's nice risk reward shortterm trade. We can go to 6140 and maybe 6060 then bounce to 6540 and maybe 6840. Would put SL at 6050.
Comment: Think after potential bounce we'll retest recent lows.
Comment: Following the scenario that i posted on july 7 so far. Horizontal support is at 6260 and major tl support at 6040.
Comment: As you can see scenario posted on july 7 is playing out perfectly. Now we touched that major tl resistance. I would expect some pullback from here before continuation. Looking pretty good for bulls so far.
Comment: We bounce around here


This is such a perfect bull trap. 9-10k range is where plebs fomo and think it's time to buy and it looks so bullish. But then u dump it to the ground (aka 6k retest or lower) and make all them plebs who bought there to panic sell to the same whales on the way down. That's exactly what i would do if i was a market maker.
+6 Reply
You are my favorite analyst on!
+3 Reply
Thank you for sharing
+2 Reply
ckaty katyusha
@katyusha, U r welcome!
Next targets are: 6300 and 5400. We might bounce hard from there. Dont panic. Drop that we see now is the only way it has to happen. Whales trying to make plebs to sell their coins at a loss. There's definately accumulation is goin on. Gl!
+2 Reply
Good point about if we go to 6k we just go through. 100% agreed. After that we got 5.5k that needs to hold or we are fucked as @electo would put it.
+1 Reply
ckaty alexcph
@alexcph, Exactly.
Nothing changes. Still a downtrend. Atm we a going to 9200-9250. Next: 8.8-8.9, 8.2, 7.2-7.5. Bounces are possible from any of those supports. 8.2 is key and we should look closely there at lower timeframes, volume and if big buys gonna be made, to decide what to do next. Will probably update here when we get there.
+1 Reply
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