Before we crack on, I wanted to note that I'm currently working with some other able chaps to start bringing some trades on Bitcoin & Alts so please watch this space as this is just a 'for fun' update on the mac daddy Bitcoin . I've been keeping an eye on some paid groups recently and whilst some seem better than others, I won't start naming, you aren't getting a whole lot for your money and always ask yourself this;
'If X is such a money spinning chart master, why on earth do they need your money?'
Chances are they have a moderate understanding of basic strategy and that's fine, it can be useful and maybe worth the money if you don't have the time yourself. But my 2 cents on the matter is just balance that you're paying them upwards of hundreds a pounds a month, that's got to be worth a decent communicative service, if nothing else.
But I digress, on with the news
On the daily view we are looking fairly 'meh'. The is not showing a whole lot of momentum, has been teasing a crossover but there's just no conviction in the market to follow this through, we also had a nice bounce from oversold but not enough follow up to get us away from the triangle of despair.
This reflects the hesitant mood the market is in and it all comes down to the from the previous ATH . I've said before that TA is a self fulfilling prophecy and I stand by that, even whales will take the path of least resistance.
So you can see above we have twice attempted again to rally out of the trend and hit resistance at the $9,100 mark which has bounced us back down to support around $8,700. I originally felt we would get another shot at making our way as high as $9,600, but I just don't see the conviction is there, yet.
I personally think that we will stay within the range of $8,200 - $9,000 for the rest of today before we roll over and head lower for the final dip of this correction. A popular target for this dip is $7,200, but I don't believe we will get there due in part to great anticipation of this dip and too many people missing out on the previous weeks nose dive.
For this reason I suggest we will dip back into the buy zone shown above and this will occur in the next 7 days, this will then take us to the realistic end of this corrective cycle and we can start a new slower growth that will take us into consolidation and slower growth into April.
So in a nutshell, better times ahead and some great undervalue alts to buy into ahead of all this downwards pressure being removed.
Cheers for reading and throw us a thumbs up if it's helped
(Not advice what to do with your money, don't sell your house or children etc etc)
I just wanted to provide a brief update, brief because nothing has changed and we are moving as expected.
The daily chart is leaning toward bearish with very little momentum in either direction, not to forget that we will need a firm downwards momentum to push us through the $8,200 support.
So like jumping on a trap door, I predict today can go 2 ways -
1. We hover in the current zone for a little longer
2. We test the support at $8,200 and bounce, a rally up to around $8,700 before crashing back down through the floor
I am biased towards the 2nd scenario here due to the lack of momentum, however it is worth noting that some stop loss hunting around the $8,200 could set a drop in motion faster.
Cheers for reading, give us a like or a follow
We had a slightly stronger bounce from the $8,300 area and there are some positive signs on the daily that can be read as a short term upside
But I wanted to give a caution on optimism here, a stall at the $8,900 levels could see a rapid breakdown which is currently more likely than it is not in my opinion
A quick update on where things stand, not too much more to note as my scenario is playing out very nicely so far
The hardest aspect in predicting movement is often the timing, we hovered slightly longer than I initially thought following the last bounce, which gave some excellent short term alt gains if you were quick on your toes! (Quicker than me since I went away for the weekend and missed out on most of the fun, but such is life).
So today we are seeing Bitcoin battling with support and the now very familiar pattern of alt coins taking a kicking.
On the daily things are looking bearish with that once friendly little MACD now hinting at bearish crossover, the SMI has stepped up it's divergance since it's bearish crossover and RSI is showing a building downwards momentum.
Shorter term don't expect Bitcoin to go down without a struggle, we will see a bounce or 2 which I would suggest to be held back around our new pal the $8,200 resistance, but overall it's going to take a lot of momentum to break the current down trend, momentum that we don't currently have.
I plan to post a couple of good buy opportunities over the next couple of days as things develop
Thanks for taking the time to read
Something positive that I do feel compelled to add today is that how encouraging some of the negative market sentiments are
Back in December many were insisting the bull market would never end, now that we are coming to the end of the current correction (in my opinion), we are seeing the same sentiment towards the bear market being ‘the death of crypto for 2 years’ and so on.
Be wary of bear traps in the coming week
First and most important tip of the day, do not listen to some of these muppets calling for a silly price, whether it is caused by a mystical giant head and shoulders pattern about to destroy everything or going from bullish to sudddenly seeing 'hidden bearish signals'. Nothing was hidden about this drop.
So here we are dipping a toe into my buy zone! On with the news...
On a brief overview of the daily, we are seeing the bearish but slow MACD crossover has continued it's journey, coupled with a bearish downwards sloping RSI and our SMI is about to reach into oversold territory later today.
But once again as has been characterised (yes, characteriSed, I'm British and we really like the letter S) we are seeing a complete lack of momentum which is why we have stalled with strong support at $7,500
So where do we go from here?
Personally I really do not see any inclination for Bitcoin to break $7,200, that level is too obvious and there is too much support prior to this price.
My prediction is to run out of steam by the $7,300 - $7,400 area over the next day, think of resistance at these levels as pushing down on a spring, not breaking through magical trap doors to the next resistance as many analysts will make it sound.
That's all for now, have a great day and let me know if this has helped.