So following on from my last post we underestimated the sell side which pushed us past our $7,200 bottom target and in spitting distance of a . Finding the end of a drop is challenge in any market, in an emotional market such as this it is even more so.
However a 10% margin for error seems fair enough for now, so this time I will be foccussing on the changing trend cycle we are entering.
Something that I am regularly seeing on here is traders being too tied to 1 time frame, and it is easily done, if the daily or 4H chart supports your idea then the weekly can get ignored regardless of what it is shouting at you, for this reason I am going to focus on the bigger picture this week. I find the weekly chart useless for timing an exact reversal, however for long term trend changes it is ideal.
So the main question is how much more room for a downwards movement is there? The answer in my opinion is, not a whole lot.
As an overview of the weekly we can see the following;
- has continued it's move down but is bottoming out, a further widening at this point is not supported by the other indicators.
- is near historical lows and is beginning to flatten, signalling exhaustion from as well as a lack of upwards momentum
- The SMI is oversold, so not a whole lot of room left to go and coupled with a slight divergance you need to be asking yourself, how much lower can this really be pushed downwards before the effort outweighs the reward?
All of the above leads me to think that we have reached exhaustion on all fronts, which is exactly what we want to see to begin a new cycle. Not a large parabolic move back upwards towards all time highs, but a flatlining momentum to form our accumulation before the next bull run starts in proper.
It is of course early days and a bounce back downwards into the $6,400 - $6,700 area cannot be ruled out, but in my mind none of the indicators are pointing towards this extreme, what I do expect is for the next weeks to be spent within a fairly close range before we are ready for our next move upwards.
I will update as things progress, but for now it looks like we are going to have an average April for Bitcoin , but a good April for Alts.
Thanks for reading and throw me a thumbs up if it's helped
Bitcoin failed to rally past $7,500 and is currently hovering looking as though it may drop further, however, as I mentioned above if we are to zoom in a bit on the current indicators I am not so convinced this is the drop to $4 - 5k being shouted about.
If we look at the hourly we can see RSI is already low and flat as a pancake,
We are already oversold on the SMI (I realise this doesn't mean we can't drop further, however we haven't even broken $7,000 yet and the bears are up against quite a lot). Finally the MACD, whilst it does have some more wriggle room to keep it's bearish divergence up... it's not exactly wide open and is going to need some firm downwards momement to keep dropping.
Are we are talking the space for maybe a $500 drop? Sure, Is there room for a move down to break $6k? Personally, I would argue no they is not.
For now we can only wait and see, but don't despair quite yet... and be careful if you're shorting at these levels.
If you’re paying attention to the exchange order books today you will see 50 bitcoin sell orders appearing before disappearing before they have a chance to be even be attempted to be filled... so, who would supposedly be shorting 50 btc at this point in large lump sums when we are so oversold? Only someone who is looking to accumulate.
Stick to your strategy and don’t panic sell at times like this
As I said above, there was not room for a huge drop yesterday about $500 worth turned out to be spot on (I'm still reading some very strange predictions from the 'pay me for premium access' folks, but what can you say?)
Today we are at an interesting point!
Shorter time frames are looking OK, not amazing, currently with very little momentum in either direction.
On the weekly we are dipping our toe into oversold on the SMI, this is quite significant for Bitcoin on a weekly scale and if we look back at February where we saw a minor but significant reversal at around the same point we should be watching closely.
The difference this time is we have a lower RSI and MACD looking like it's completing it's journey in the near future.
A move up by the end of today/ early tomorrow seems more likely than it is not after an initial dip that I think we are about to see unfold shortly to the mid $6k area.
Now we wait for the 'inverse head and shoulder is invalidated, we are going straight to $4k' analysis updates
Thanks for reading this slightly less dramatic take on events
As you can see we are still waiting, bouncing around the same range, an attempted climb overnight saw us drop back down again. Yawn.
So where are we now? Short term we are looking at a short upside which has just kicked off before I started typing this, bullish crossover on the 1 hour chart which could take us up to the $6,800 area, however we have absolutely zero momentum behind us at stands so don't expect anything too dramatic.
This also stands to say the same to the downside. Remember up there where i'm saying the current downside is limited? Well it still is.
My crystal ball at the moment is telling me that we are going to a dip back by tomorrow, maybe streching down as far as $6,400, followed by a bounce back sunday where we can expect the daily chart to start giving us some more positive signals.
Pardon the lack of drama again. This is a great chance to get you're alt coin shopping list in order though.
As you can see price has moved as we predicted above, I hope this helped and if you sold at $6,8 limited upside target then give yourself a pat on the back, you've earnt it.
The daily signals are saying downwards with not much momentum, we could see a spike down a bounce if we can get some panic in the air, but this looks to be a limited movement as we just don't have the kind of room for price movement many are calling for.
So in short, I would advise a likely down target to $6,400. But with a bit of pressure we could breifly dip lower to $6k, a move upwards on Sunday is looking likely timing wise.
I'm away for the weekend so we'll see how things look Monday!