This is a manual strategy with ideas pulled from my previous chart showing how BTC responds strongly to the yearly December/January time frame.
The rules are:
1.) Long only, stop is the low of the previous year. The assumption is the RRR will almost always end up much more than 3 since in the long term BTC is moving in exponential waves upward.
2.) If long, sell on December 1
3.) To get in again, wait until after the 2nd week of January and buy at market on a touch of the 16 week donchian channel high.
The thinking is that the trick is to figure out if the December 1 price will be a high or a continuation. If it's a high and dumps you want to get out there and get in again after it has corrected a large amount using a donchian channel that's a significant percentage of the whole year.
If the December 1 price is a continuation then the donchian channel will get you right back in again. You want to wait until mid January to give it time to dump.
It might be a little safer to use a 20 week donchian channel than 16 week but so far the 16 week has worked out.
Currently this strategy would be long from about 4250 and would be selling probably around 7000 which is not bad. I intend to use it to add to my long term holdings next time it generates a buy signal next year.
The rules are:
1.) Long only, stop is the low of the previous year. The assumption is the RRR will almost always end up much more than 3 since in the long term BTC is moving in exponential waves upward.
2.) If long, sell on December 1
3.) To get in again, wait until after the 2nd week of January and buy at market on a touch of the 16 week donchian channel high.
The thinking is that the trick is to figure out if the December 1 price will be a high or a continuation. If it's a high and dumps you want to get out there and get in again after it has corrected a large amount using a donchian channel that's a significant percentage of the whole year.
If the December 1 price is a continuation then the donchian channel will get you right back in again. You want to wait until mid January to give it time to dump.
It might be a little safer to use a 20 week donchian channel than 16 week but so far the 16 week has worked out.
Currently this strategy would be long from about 4250 and would be selling probably around 7000 which is not bad. I intend to use it to add to my long term holdings next time it generates a buy signal next year.
Comment:
Edit: Rule 2 had a mistake, it should be: "If long, sell on January 1"
Comment:
Here are the full rules with errors corrected:
The rules are:
1.) Long only, stop is the low of the previous year. The assumption is the RRR will almost always end up much more than 3 since in the long term BTC is moving in exponential waves upward.
2.) If long, sell on January 1
3.) To get in again, wait until after the 2nd week of January and buy at market on a touch of the 16 week donchian channel high.
The thinking is that the trick is to figure out if the January 1 price will be a high or a continuation. If it's a high and dumps you want to get out there and get in again after it has corrected a large amount using a donchian channel that's a significant percentage of the whole year.
If the January 1 price is a continuation then the donchian channel will get you right back in again. You want to wait until mid January to give it time to dump.
It might be a little safer to use a 20 week donchian channel than 16 week but so far the 16 week has worked out.
Currently this strategy would be long from about 4250 and would be selling probably around 7000 which is not bad. I intend to use it to add to my long term holdings next time it generates a buy signal next year.
The rules are:
1.) Long only, stop is the low of the previous year. The assumption is the RRR will almost always end up much more than 3 since in the long term BTC is moving in exponential waves upward.
2.) If long, sell on January 1
3.) To get in again, wait until after the 2nd week of January and buy at market on a touch of the 16 week donchian channel high.
The thinking is that the trick is to figure out if the January 1 price will be a high or a continuation. If it's a high and dumps you want to get out there and get in again after it has corrected a large amount using a donchian channel that's a significant percentage of the whole year.
If the January 1 price is a continuation then the donchian channel will get you right back in again. You want to wait until mid January to give it time to dump.
It might be a little safer to use a 20 week donchian channel than 16 week but so far the 16 week has worked out.
Currently this strategy would be long from about 4250 and would be selling probably around 7000 which is not bad. I intend to use it to add to my long term holdings next time it generates a buy signal next year.
Comment:
Entry line still quite far away so no trade on this yet, although I have the existing position I've already built I will probably use this to add a bit.
